2025 NBA Playoffs Preview and NBA Finals Odds: The Thunder Are Historically Great But Can They Finish?

Scott Kacsmar19/04/2025 - 10:55 am

The 2025 NBA playoffs start Saturday, and we may or may not be on a collision course to the NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder, who have been the favorites practically all season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18) ended up winning the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference while the Thunder, behind likely MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, lapped the otherwise competitive field in the Western Conference by going 68-14.

Going into the playoffs, here are the current odds from FanDuel on who will win the 2025 NBA Finals:

Oklahoma City Thunder (+180)
Boston Celtics (+185)
Cleveland Cavaliers (+500)
Los Angeles Lakers (+1500)
Golden State Warriors (+2100)
New York Knicks (+3100)
Los Angeles Clippers (+3200)
Denver Nuggets (+3800)
Minnesota Timberwolves (+5000)
Houston Rockets (+7000)
Indiana Pacers (+8000)
Milwaukee Bucks (+12000)
Detroit Pistons (+41000)
Memphis Grizzlies (+50000)
Orlando Magic (+100000)
Miam Heat (+100000)

This is a good time to note that since 1976, no NBA champion had longer than +1800 odds at the start of the postseason. The 1995 Rockets and 2011 Mavericks were both +1800 the years they won.

But that would suggest that the only realistic champions this year are the top-seeded Thunder, the defending champion Celtics, the top-seeded Cavaliers, and the Lakers with LeBron James and Luka Doncic. At the end of the day, that sounds fairly accurate, doesn’t it?

But let’s look at the eight first-round matchups in the playoffs and see what lies ahead before we make our best NBA Finals bets.

NBA 2025 Playoffs: First-Round Matchups

The eight playoff series get underway on Saturday. The odds for series winner are from FanDuel.

No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 8 Miami Heat

Series Odds: Cavaliers -4000 | Heat +1500
Season Series: Cavaliers lead 2-1

The Miami Heat are no strangers to making surprisingly deep playoff runs under coach Erik Spoelstra. But this would be an all-timer if they do it after trading Jimmy Butler, and they are the first No. 10 seed to qualify for the playoffs after prevailing in the play-in tournament on Friday night to claim the No. 8 seed.

But Tyler Herro and company have a tough draw with the Cavaliers, a team that’s had winning streaks of 15, 12, and 16 games this year. But it’s true that ever since the team’s 16-game winning streak ended on March 16, the Cavaliers are only 8-8 to end the regular season.

But this Cleveland offense is the highest scoring in the league and the most efficient. The defense is championship worthy (No. 8 in Defensive Rating), and they likely won’t need to play stellar defense to get past a subpar Miami offense in the opening round.

However, it’s a different story if the Cavaliers have the talent to top the Celtics, but at least they’ll have home-court advantage for that series if it happens.

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies

Series Odds: Thunder -4000 | Grizzlies +1500
Season Series: Thunder lead 4-0

The Grizzlies prevailed in Friday night’s play-in tournament game to earn the No. 8 seed after a difficult regular season where they fired their head coach (Taylor Jenkins) and had to deal with Ja Morant finding which weapon he can use as a celebration inspiration next.

But the reward for extending their season is a matchup with the Thunder, one of the most dominant teams statistically in NBA history. On their way to a 68-14 record with the league’s scoring champion (SGA) and the No. 1 defense, the Thunder have a +12.8 Net Rating. That’s so absurd that the Lakers, Celtics, Spurs, and Bulls have never had a season with a higher Net Rating in their franchise histories.

Put another way, the 2024-25 Thunder have the largest margin of victory (+12.87) of any team in NBA history.

That puts a lot of pressure on this team to come through with a championship. Of the six other teams in NBA history to win at least 68 games, four won the title, the 73-win Warriors choked away a 3-1 lead in 2016, and the 1972-73 Celtics failed to get past the Eastern Conference Finals.

So, anything short of a Western Conference Finals would be a huge disappointment, and that’s a valid criticism. But the Thunder will have to show their improved defense and scoring around SGA is going to carry them through when it wasn’t good enough last year to beat Dallas in the second round.

In fact, that Dallas series kind of proved that two superstars (Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving) can still beat one in this league. We could even see that again with a potential Thunder-Lakers series with SGA trying to outscore LeBron James and Luka this time.

Jalen Williams is averaging 21.6 points per game this year to help SGA, but his eFG% (.537) is the lowest of his career. We’ll see what happens to the Thunder, but they shouldn’t struggle in the first round as they are 4-0 against the Grizzlies this year. Still, the Grizzlies have Morant and are better than your typical No. 8 seed with a top 10 rating on both sides of the court. They’re just wildly volatile.

No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Orlando Magic

Series Odds: Celtics -8000 | Magic +2200
Season Series: Magic lead 2-1

The odds say this would be one of the biggest first-round upsets in NBA history even though the Magic are 2-1 against Boston this year. However, their last meeting was April 9, and the Magic won 96-76 in a game where the Celtics did not play Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis – otherwise known as their six best players.

The fact is the Celtics are a much better team and enter the playoffs healthier. The Magic lost Jalen Suggs (quad) for the season and are 27th in Offensive Rating. While Orlando has one of the best defenses in the league this year, good luck keeping up with Boston when those 3-point shots are raining down.

It would be a surprise if this series lasted more than four or five games.

No. 2 Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 Golden State Warriors

Series Odds: Warriors -174 | Rockets +146
Season Series: Warriors lead 3-2

Leave it up to the Warriors to take a losing record into February, trade for Jimmy Butler to go on a run, have to play the play-in tournament once again, nearly blow a huge lead to Memphis at home, and still wind up as a favorite over the No. 2 seed in the first round.

“Playoff Jimmy” definitely gives the Warriors a shot here. They were +6000 in February to win it all while they are up to +2100 now, the fifth-best odds of any team. That’s what happens when you put such a legitimate playoff performer around Steph Curry, who can still go on scoring runs even if he’s less consistent at his old age.

But the Warriors have serious value in at least advancing past the first round despite being a No. 7 seed. That speaks to the underwhelming offense from the Rockets, who don’t shoot the ball very well as even Fred VanVleet is shooting just .378 from the field this year.

When you add Butler to the mix and consider that the Warriors are close defensively to what Houston can do, the Warriors should win this series and could be on a collision course with the Lakers in the second round in another hyped matchup between Curry and LeBron with the unexpected slices of Butler and Luka.

We know the NBA is rooting like crazy for that to happen in the second round.

No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Detroit Pistons

Series Odds: Knicks -420 | Pistons +330
Season Series: Pistons lead 3-1

The Knicks are a pretty considerable favorite as the No. 3 seed, but props to Detroit for making the playoffs for the first time since 2019. But if the Pistons are going to win their first playoff series since 2008, they’ll have their work cut out for them with a healthy Jalen Brunson back for the Knicks.

Brunson has been an elite playoff performer the last few years, and he’s been disrespected a bit in the media with some saying Detroit’s Cade Cunningham is the best player in this series. We’ll see how the young Cunningham fares in his NBA postseason debut, but the Knicks have the coaching experience and offensive efficiency to school Detroit in this series.

There will also be plenty of attention on Karl-Anthony Towns in his first playoff series with the Knicks. The team acquired him to get over the hump in the postseason, and he’s had his share of struggles this time of year.

No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves

Series Odds: Lakers -186 | Timberwolves +156
Season Series: Tied 2-2

This could be one of the best first-round series this year as the Timberwolves are a very competitive No. 6 seed with a deep run in the playoffs under their belts last year, and Anthony Edwards is a superstar who can seize the moment.

But the Lakers have looked really great at times since trading for Luka Doncic in February, a trade that still boggles the mind how Dallas can actually go through with that. But the pairing of Doncic with a 40-year-old LeBron James who is still one of the best players in the league could go a long way in the playoffs as both usually show up this time of year.

It’s the team around them that you’ve had to question most of the time, but now they have each other, and Austin Reaves is a legit third option in this offense. The concern is the defense, which is only No. 15 in Defensive Rating and has often not delivered under James in recent years.

The Timberwolves are actually No. 4 in Net Rating while the Lakers (50-32), who only won one more game than Minnesota despite ranking three seeds higher, are No. 14. That’s not a championship mark, but you have to consider they didn’t get Doncic until February.

Minnesota could absolutely win this series, but most people are expecting Lakers vs. Warriors in the second round.

No. 4 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 Milwaukee Bucks

Series Odds: Pacers -164 | Bucks +138
Season Series: Bucks lead 3-1

You may recall this was the first-round series last year, and without Giannis Antetokounmpo available, the Bucks lost in six games to the Pacers. Giannis is healthy going into this playoff run, but now Damian Lillard is the one out with a blood clot issue.

It initially threatened to keep him out of the entire playoffs, but after three weeks on blood thinners, he’s preparing for a return this season.

Remarkable and historic development to clear from the blood clot in just over 3 weeks. Doctors have told Bucks officials this recovery has never been seen before – but occurred due to early treatment, detection, and specialists working on Lillard even before formal diagnosis. https://t.co/1AOqon1Ahm
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 17, 2025

Lillard is still out for Game 1, but we’ll see if he can get back before the series is over. The Bucks are 3-1 against Indiana this year, but Milwaukee has always looked just above average this year. They don’t rank in the top 10 on either side of the court, but they’re also not terrible at either. They just lack anything consistently dominant out of relying on Giannis to be Superman.

But we haven’t seen him put together that type of playoff run outside of 2021 when they won the championship. It’d be great just to see him stay healthy for April and beyond as he just hasn’t done that much in his career.

The Pacers are similarly “just above mediocre” this year, ranked No. 12 in Net Rating. But they are fairly healthy and have a capable duo in Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam to get the job done.

It could be one of the longest, best series in the first round, but frankly, neither team looks like a good bet to take down the Cavaliers and Celtics in this conference this spring.

No. 4 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers

Series Odds: Clippers -118 | Nuggets +100
Season Series: Tied 2-2

If you’re looking for the most drama in the first round, this might be the series to watch. Both teams are 50-32, but the Nuggets have home-court advantage and are still the slight underdog here because of they’re downward trend to end the regular season.

Nikola Jokic is still the best player in the world and would win MVP after averaging a triple-double in any other season, but voter fatigue is a real thing, and he’s already won three of the last four awards.

But the Nuggets are No. 22 in Defensive Rating, and no team has won an NBA championship ranked that low. They also made news by firing coach Michael Malone and the GM very late in the year despite a 50-win season. That’s usually not the sign of a team in good shape, and Russell Westbrook has blown some games in the clutch with terrible plays.

Meanwhile, the Clippers have exceeded expectations as their preseason win total was 35.5. But Tyronn Lue is one of the best coaches in the NBA and he got to 50 wins with Kawhi Leonard playing in 37 games after making his season debut in January.

The Clippers are 26-11 when Kawhi plays this year, and he is in good form going into this series. While Jokic has played very well in the postseason, it is true that he’s 0-5 in playoff series against 50-win teams, and at 50-32, the Clippers would qualify for this.

Similar to the No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup in the East, this should be a good one that could go either way, but neither team is well prepared to go on a deep run. Still, you’d give the Clippers a bigger nod to pulling it off if Leonard and James Harden actually stay healthy for every game.

Best 2025 NBA Finals Bets

So, who makes it to the NBA Finals? You know the NBA is dying for Celtics vs. Lakers, because that’s been the case for decades. But it would actually be bigger than usual this year with the Luka Doncic trade, the fact he’s facing Boston for the second year in a row after the bad series last year in Dallas, and LeBron has his own history against Boston.

It’s definitely a fun hypothetical series to talk about, but don’t discount the fact it could be Cavaliers vs. Thunder in June, the battle of No. 1 seeds. They’ve both had great years, but it is still hard to trust the Cavs to get it done against Boston.

The Celtics haven’t been as dominant as they were a year ago, but this is still one of the best teams in the league with a style that’s hard to beat with the pouring of 3s and defense.

The brackets also shape up well for Cleveland and Oklahoma City to advance to the Conference Finals. I think it comes down to Cleveland vs. Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals, and I would still back Boston without home court in that one.

In the West, we could see the Thunder have to get past LeBron and Luka (or Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler) to reach the NBA Finals. Again, it comes back to the Michael Jordan-esque construction of a scoring leader surrounded by a stout defense taking on teams with a pair of Hall of Famers and big-time stars. We’ll see if OKC has enough around SGA yet or not.

I hate to just go chalk and pick the Thunder vs. Celtics even if it has ridiculous +180 odds to happen. But in the eyes of the NBA, Celtics vs. Lakers is chalk too. LeBron James, with the help of another elite player, against the defending champs is chalky enough too.

It’s also just a damn good storyline, so bring it on. But I’m still sticking with the Celtics to repeat, and after Jaylen Brown got his moment to shine last year, Jayson Tatum will win Finals MVP honors this year.

NBA Pick: NBA Finalists 2024-25 – Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers (+1000) at FanDuel

NBA Pick: 2025 NBA Finals MVP – Jayson Tatum (+240) at FanDuel

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