2025 NFL Award Nominees and Best Bets: Can We Get a Good and Logical MVP Race?

Scott Kacsmar03/09/2025 - 01:09 pm

Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals — (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

The NFL award races are their own storyline during the season. They’re kept separate from the teams chasing the Super Bowl, but they can get just as heated when talking about who deserves the MVP or Defensive Player of the Year. They are also a favorite NFL futures market to bet on before and during the season as the odds like to shift greatly, creating exciting opportunities for cash out value.

We’ve touched on a few award favorites in our 32 team previews for 2025 (all linked at the bottom), which concluded yesterday with the Eagles. But now let’s make our final picks for who is going to win the eight awards this season. Since the voters have to do ranked voting with their top five, we’ll provide five betting options with the best odds we can find at top-rated sportsbooks.

But we’ll also make it very clear which one pick we like the best. Now let’s see if the voters can agree after a tough 2024 where the group of 50 Associated Press (AP) voters did some questionable things with their votes. We also have a brand new category in the Protector of the Year, which goes to the best offensive lineman.

You can always play these as singles or parlay several together at a very low risk with a high reward. Just remember it’s usually a case of fitting a narrative to the player’s season to give them the best shot of winning the award.

NFL MVP (Most Valuable Player) Award

The clearest thing we can say is a quarterback on a winning team will win the MVP again. Every MVP since 2007 but one has been a quarterback. But it would be nice for the sake of the award (and one’s sanity) if we could somehow avoid arguing about Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson for a third-straight year over the MVP.

They are the only two players who have received a first-place MVP vote in the last two seasons, but what happened last year was absurd. Jackson won the first-team All-Pro selection at quarterback, which is usually a great indicator for MVP. But despite the same 50 people who voted him AP1 were casting the MVP vote, just enough of them changed their vote so that Allen won the award by a 27-23 margin.

When you look at the breakdown of the list of Allen and Jackson voters in 2024, it makes sense. The more analytical people chose Jackson. The unholy trio of Dan Orlovsky, Emmanuel Acho, and Chris Simms were the voters who switched up on Jackson. Then someone like Aditi Kinkhabwala admitted to polling many experts on the winner before voting Allen. Why do you even have a vote if you can’t make up your own mind about it?

Look, I think I’ve said all I could on this topic from the end of last season to the previews for Buffalo and Baltimore. The good news is maybe we won’t have to entertain these two this season since both should be in store for some turnover regression, limiting their efficiency from last year. Then for Jackson, how do you even improve on those numbers at this point?

But the reason we can’t fully bury the 2024 MVP race is because it set a new precedent that can absolutely carry over to the 2025 MVP given the same voting panel. If you can be the All-Pro quarterback, the best quarterback, but still not be MVP, then that’s a new precedent.

Also, the worst part was the justification that Jackson has two MVPs, Allen has none, so let’s make it 2-1 instead of 3-0 since they’re both great quarterbacks. Making it a participation trophy. A lifetime achievement award. A charity MVP for Allen.

But if that’s the case, then Joe Burrow is the QB to back for MVP in 2025. The media, especially the Orlovsky/Simms/Acho/Jim Miller types, love the guy. The fact that Burrow finished No. 4 in MVP voting (82 points) without making the playoffs is crazy as making the playoffs has long been considered a standard for any MVP-winning season at quarterback.

People just love the guy despite facts like he’s won one NFL game in his career when trailing in the final 8:00, a stat I love to push because it’s true and crazy. Yet, watch that blow up in my face this season when Burrow wins multiple games like that, bolstering his MVP case in the process.

It’s not like the Bengals did much to change their defense. They hired a random coordinator and drafted Shemar Stewart in the first round. That’s about it for big changes. They’re going to have to pray for some lucky bounces on turnovers in clutch spots to stay above water. Meanwhile, the offense is largely the same too but more expensive after the Bengals waited to make Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins the most expensive wideout duo in NFL history.

Burrow likely doesn’t even have to win the division or improve on his career-best numbers last year to win MVP. If he can get to 10 wins, make the playoffs, deliver a few clutch moments he hasn’t in the past, then as long as the stats are even in the realm of good enough, he just may have the MVP support out there from voters who have lost the plot.

That’s assuming we have another MVP race like 2021, 2023, or last year where no one is really running away with things and checking all the boxes. But in this “DEI MVP” era we’ve stepped into, making sure Burrow is the next to get his trophy is something I’m not passing up in a year where Cincinnati is favored to return to the postseason.

Frankly, anything that’s not another Allen vs. Jackson pissing match is desirable at this point. It could be Brock Purdy/J.J. McCarthy vs. Burrow for all I care.

NFL Pick: 2025 NFL MVP Award – Joe Burrow (+600 at FanDuel)

Rounding out the top five picks for 2025 MVP:

2. Jayden Daniels (+1000 at FanDuel): Daniels had the best rookie quarterback season ever and the team added Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil. If he can overtake the Eagles in the NFC East in those final three games of the season, that could do the trick for MVP. But winning it on a wild card team is very difficult, and he’s not the media darling Joe Burrow is yet, hence why he’s not our favorite choice.

3. Patrick Mahomes (+700 at BetRivers): Is this a revenge season for Mahomes after that Super Bowl loss? We should see the Chiefs open up that offense again and become more explosive like the old days. Having a legitimate left tackle (rookie Josh Simmons) could do wonders, and so could having wide receivers who aren’t washed up or rookies anymore. The narrative would also be if he can start strong when Rashee Rice is suspended for six games and keep the hot hand going as the Chiefs eye a fourth-straight Super Bowl trip.

4. Jordan Love (+2000 at Caesars): Brett Favre won MVP and the Super Bowl in his age-27 season (1996). Aaron Rodgers won Super Bowl MVP in his age-27 season (2010). Jordan Love is 27 this season and the Packers just traded for Micah Parsons to bolster the defense and drafted a first-round wideout (Matthew Golden) for the first time since 2002. If Love can put together his most complete season yet – he played like an MVP in second half of 2023 – and take over the NFC, he’ll have a case.

5. Bo Nix (+6000 at BetRivers): You could get Justin Herbert (+2000) for similar reasons, but we’ll take the longshot of Bo Nix as his 17-game pace from the second half of his rookie season points to nearly 45 touchdown passes in a Sean Payton offense. If he can improve and end the reign of Kansas City in the AFC West, that’s a strong argument for him. It’d also be wild as Drew Brees never won MVP in New Orleans.

Offensive Player of the Year Award

Saquon Barkley pulled away from the field to win this one going away last year, but no one has repeated as OPOY since Marshall Faulk’s three-peat in 1999-01. The main thing to understand here is the award usually goes to someone who leads the league in receiving or rushing yards, and it hasn’t gone to a quarterback since Patrick Mahomes in 2018.

This is a tough one this year. I’m fading Barkley repeating as none of the 2,000-yard rushers have ever rushed for 1,500 the next season. I’m also fading Ja’Marr Chase since he couldn’t win it when he had a triple crown last year, and if Burrow has an MVP season, they’ll be unlikely to give Chase this award too. Also think Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry cancel each other out in the voting too much for one to win.

The player I’m landing on is Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson in his third year. I think the Falcons can have the new triplets of the NFL with Michael Penix Jr., Robinson, and Drake London – three players they drafted with No. 8 overall picks in three straight drafts. Robinson had a career-high rushing game with Penix under center last year, and the Falcons could be a surprise division winner this year.

Robinson rushed for 1,456 yards, scored 15 total touchdowns, and had 1,887 yards from scrimmage. If the Falcons have a better defense and open things up with a more mobile quarterback, that can help Robinson to his best season yet and possibly even a rushing title.

NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award – Bijan Robinson (+1400 at FanDuel)

Rounding out the top five picks for 2025 OPOY:

2. Puka Nacua (+2000 at FanDuel): They added Davante Adams, but they also lost Cooper Kupp. Meanwhile, Puka Nacua is just always open and Matthew Stafford knows how to find him. He’s also the quarterback for both 1,900-yard seasons in NFL history, so if everyone stays healthy, don’t be surprised if Nacua leads the league in receiving yards.

3. Jayden Daniels (+5000 at BetMGM): Yes, quarterbacks almost never win this award, but if Daniels has that MVP season as a dual threat, he could double up on the awards, making this five times greater value than his MVP odds. Remember, he had one of the greatest dual-threat seasons ever last year that was only overshadowed because of what Lamar Jackson did.

4. Jahmyr Gibbs (+1300 at FanDuel): Not loving this pick with the Lions losing Ben Johnson and the presence of David Montgomery taking away from Gibbs’ production. But if the Lions lean more on Gibbs, he has a chance to produce some fantastic numbers in this offense.

5. Christian McCaffrey (+2000 at BetRivers): The 2023 winner, McCaffrey could have a bounce-back year as can the 49ers in general with better health and a favorable schedule. But we’ll see how the trade for Brian Robinson (Commanders) impacts his touches.

Jayden Daniels #5 of the Washington Commanders — (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Defensive Player of the Year Award

Last year’s winner was a huge surprise in Denver corner Patrick Surtain II after many of the top pass rushers were injured or played for bad teams. This is an award where you really do have to play on a winning team/playoff team and a good defense. Edge rushers have the inside track to it as well.

This award also loves repeat winners as J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald each won it three times not that long ago. That’s why I think T.J. Watt, with his fresh contract worth over $40M per year, gets his second this season for the Steelers.

Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay should make this the best secondary Watt’s ever had behind him, and they added Derrick Harmon up front for the line. If Aaron Rodgers can make the offense more efficient and help Watt with rest and teeing off with leads, then he has the ability to lead the NFL in sacks and get another playoff berth for this team. He’s also one of the best with the game on the line with big plays in those moments.

NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award – T.J. Watt (+1000 at FanDuel)

Rounding out the top five picks for 2025 DPOY:

2. Micah Parsons (+550 at BetMGM): He’s the betting favorite right now, and nothing would stick it more to Jerry Jones than for Parsons to win his first DPOY award right away. But I think it’s a lot easier to make this call if he joined the team in April instead of late August, and if he wasn’t talking about getting an epidural for his back just to play Week 1. We may not see the true value of this trade until later, which is why I’m cautiously sliding Parsons to No. 2 here. But I’ll have shares of him for sure.

3. Nick Bosa (+1500 at BetMGM): Again, the 49ers have a soft schedule and should be healthier as a team this year. Bosa won the award in 2022 and should be happy to see Robert Saleh back as the defensive coordinator along with some fresh talent from the draft.

4. Aidan Hutchinson (+750 at Caesars): He was a favorite last year before he broke his fibula in Week 5. Hutchinson is back, but the Lions may not be a great enough defense to give him the push for this award.

5. Jared Verse (+1600 at Caesars): The reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year, he trash talked Eagles fans before the game and backed it up with a good playoff performance. Verse could make a big leap in Year 2 and plays with a very talented front seven that had 16 sacks in the playoffs alone.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Award

With respect to Brock Bowers, no tight end (or offensive lineman) has ever won this award. Jayden Daniels was a no-brain winner in 2024, but Cam Ward looks to be the only Week 1 rookie quarterback in 2025. That gives him an advantage, though he’ll have to contend with some running backs as the AFC West has a new group that should dominate this award discussion unless Ward is the next C.J. Stroud or Daniels.

But I’m going with the talent and speed of Ashton Jeanty in a Chip Kelly offense that should be much better with Geno Smith at quarterback. Kelly loves tempo and helped LeSean McCoy to a rushing title in Philadelphia. The Raiders aren’t going to be good enough in 2025 for Jeanty to do that, but he should be eyeing 1,200 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns, which could be enough in a field that isn’t deep.

NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award – Ashton Jeanty (+300 at Caesars)

Rounding out the top five picks for 2025 OROY:

2. Cam Ward (+350 at BetMGM): He is the quarterback option as you can’t count on Tyler Shough (Saints) or Jaxson Dart (Giants) right now. There is precedent with Stroud and Daniels having a transformative effect on teams not expected to do well, which is the case for the Titans. But he still fights an uphill battle to deliver right away. I liked the way he was looking downfield in the preseason at least.

3. TreVeyon Henderson (+1400 at FanDuel): With his speed and playing for a team with a favorable schedule and a coach (Mike Vrabel) who rode Derrick Henry to success, you have to like Henderson as a dark horse. The only issue is getting Rhamondre Stevenson out of the way to get more touches for the rookie.

4. Omarion Hampton (+750 at FanDuel): The Chargers’ running game peaked by Week 2 last year with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. They’re gone and have been replaced by Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris. But the rookie has the inside track in a Greg Roman offense that wants to run the ball better. However, losing tackle Rashawn Slater was a huge loss for the running game.

5. Tyler Warren (+2800 at Caesars): There will come a day when a tight end wins this award. I don’t love Warren’s situation with Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson throwing him the ball, but I like his skillset and expect him to be productive right away. This is a dark horse pick for an Indy team that could have a dark season.

Defensive Rookie of the Year Award

Jared Verse (Rams) won this award last year with 4.5 sacks as edge rushers have a baked-in advantage to winning DROY. Just keep in mind you don’t have to be on a good team or even a good defense to win this award, which expands the field.

While Abdul Carter (Giants) is the favorite, I’m sticking to the narrative that the Bengals get a shockingly big year out of Shemar Stewart after his contract dispute and the fact he had 1.5 sacks in each of his three seasons at Texas A&M. But I’m going to go with him getting at least 7.0 sacks opposite Trey Hendrickson, who they finally signed, and it helps the Bengals make the playoffs again.

NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award – Shemar Stewart (+2500 at BetMGM)

Rounding out the top five picks for 2025 DROY:

2. Abdul Carter (+250 at Caesars): He was the top-rated edge rusher in the class and has Brian Burns lined up on the other side from him. But he’ll have to live up to that draft stock against a brutal schedule.

3. Jalon Walker (+950 at FanDuel): The Falcons also drafted edge rusher James Pearce Jr. in the first round, but Walker is the more polished player with higher expectations. They’ll both have to make that pass rush work if the Falcons are to end their playoff drought.

4. Donovan Ezeiruaku (+2500 at BetRivers): It’s very easy to trash Jerry Jones right now for the Micah Parsons trade, but what if rookie Donovan Ezeiruaku builds on his college production and is an instant hit in this defense? That feels like a non-zero probability for sure.

5. Travis Hunter (+1400 at FanDuel): Let the snap count analysis this Sunday begin. I’m not really a fan of Hunter for either rookie award because I don’t think he’s going to be great enough on either side of the ball to warrant it. If voters vote by proper standards – I’ll hold my breath – then they should only judge Hunter on what he does offensively for the OROY award and ditto for defense and this award. He shouldn’t get bonus points for playing both sides. At least that’s how I see it. Orlovsky/Simms/Acho will probably try to give him both rookie awards even if he’s barely a top 5 player in each category.

Travis Hunter #12 of the Jacksonville Jaguars — (Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)

Comeback Player of the Year Award

It’s the NFL’s most confusing award as you used to be able to win it for playing well after a year where you sucked. But after Damar Hamlin didn’t win the award in 2023 for nearly dying on the field, there was a supposed change in the criteria. That just led to Joe Burrow winning it for a second time in 2024, but that shouldn’t happen again in 2025.

It’s a weird award that really should be scrapped for Most Improved Player like other leagues do. But I’m going with Aidan Hutchinson of the Lions on this one. He’ll come back strong from the broken leg, but his defense won’t be a good enough unit for him to win DPOY, so voters will compromise by making sure he gets the Comeback Player award. Which sounds fine to me.

NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award – Aidan Hutchinson (+300 at Caesars)

Rounding out the top five picks for 2025 Comeback Player of the Year:

2. Christian McCaffrey (+400 at BetMGM): Despite his injury prone label, he’s never won this award before. Achilles tendinitis in both legs limited him to four games in 2024, so a big year could help him win this year.

3. Trevor Lawrence (+500 at Caesars): That was a really nasty hit that led to a season-ending concussion for Lawrence. If he can thrive in Liam Coen’s new offense, he’ll have a fair case for this award.

4. J.J. McCarthy (+900 at FanDuel): He had meniscus surgery after one preseason game and missed his rookie year. He’s a real wild card this season, but he is in a loaded situation and could play very well right away. But I wonder if voters would hold his situation against him on top of acknowledging he wasn’t guaranteed to start last year over Sam Darnold.

5. Daniel Jones (+2500 at FanDuel): This was going to be Anthony Richardson, but we’ll go with the next bum quarterback the Colts are trying to make happen in 2025.

Protector of the Year Award

We actually did a full betting analysis two months ago on the new Protector of the Year award that will go to the best offensive lineman. Be sure to read that if you’re interested in this new market.

The key point to remember is that the 50 AP voters won’t be voting on this award. Instead, it’s a 6-man panel of former NFL offensive linemen, so they may not be as swayed to make sure a left tackle wins the award every year.

But I am going to go with a reputation heavy pick at left tackle to win the inaugural award, and that’s Trent Williams, the oldest offensive lineman in the NFL this year. He’s a future Hall of Famer, he was injured last year, and he’s still a great player with an offense and team that should be much better this year.

NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Protector of the Year Award – Trent Williams (+750 at Caesars)

Rounding out the top five picks for 2025 DROY:

2. Penei Sewell (+500 at Caesars): He’s the odds-on favorite as someone who is viewed as the best tackle in the game. But we just have to make sure that offense is still going to be top tier without coordinator Ben Johnson.

3. Joe Alt (+1500 at FanDuel): The argument here is simple. In making the move to left tackle after Rashawn Slater suffered a season-ending injury, Alt holding that position down in Year 2 would show his value off immensely. A real sleeper with +1500 odds here.

4. Joe Thuney (+2000 at FanDuel): Again, this is a new award, so we’re not sure how they’re going to vote on things. But if you’re talking about value and improving a team, Joe Thuney going to guard in Chicago could do wonders for Caleb Williams and help him steal this award.

5. Lane Johnson (+775 at Caesars): He has the second-best odds at certain books, but if the Eagles are viewed as having the best offensive line, does that hurt him in a voting process like this? His left tackle, Jordan Mailata, has the fourth-best odds at +1100. I think they can cancel each other out.

Coach of the Year Award

There’s been a lot of disgruntled talk about this award not going to the best coach but instead going to the coach who beats expectations the most. There is a lot of truth to that as Kevin O’Connell won the award last year for winning 14 games with Sam Darnold. But he also was swept by Dan Campbell’s Lions to lose the division, yet that didn’t register with enough voters.

Maybe the tide is turning on this award, but the odds are still in favor of new coaches on teams who were bad in 2024 and might be good in 2025. I let the cat out of the bag on this one, but I’m taking Liam Coen in Jacksonville after he helps Trevor Lawrence to his best season yet, utilizes Travis Hunter on both sides of the ball, and wins the AFC South.

NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Coach of the Year – Liam Coen (+1400 at BetMGM)

Rounding out the top five picks for 2025 Coach of the Year:

2. Mike Vrabel (+875 at BetMGM): A great hire for the Patriots, Vrabel has a chance with this schedule to make an immediate impact and turn a 4-13 team around to a winning record and maybe even a wild card berth.

3. Sean Payton (+1500 at BetMGM): We teased this with Bo Nix for MVP, but if Sean Payton can pull that off and topple the Chiefs from winning the AFC West again, then he should probably win this award going away.

4. Matt LaFleur (+2500 at BetRivers): It’s hard to believe Matt LaFleur has never won this award given he wins 67% of his games. But if he can get a No. 1 seed with one of the youngest teams in the game, maybe it’ll be his time to get recognized for the job he’s done.

5. Ben Johnson (+700 at DraftKings): While I really like the idea of Ben Johnson, I just don’t think you can win this award if you miss the playoffs, and I think the Bears come up a little short of the playoffs this season.

If you’ve made it this far, I leave you with my favorite 2025 awards parlay with +97580 odds at FanDuel ($1 bet wins $975.80):

MVP: Jayden Daniels
DPOY: Micah Parsons
OROY: Cam Ward
Comeback: Aidan Hutchinson

Related Articles:

Table of Contents