As the 2024-2025 Serie A season races towards its conclusion on May 25th , the battle for the Scudetto between Napoli and Inter dominates headlines. However, simmering just beneath is an equally captivating and arguably more complex struggle: the intense fight for European qualification. Six clubs – Atalanta, Juventus, Bologna, AS Roma, Lazio, and Fiorentina – find themselves locked in a high-stakes contest for the lucrative places in next season’s UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League. With only four matchdays remaining, the margins are incredibly fine, promising a dramatic and unpredictable finish to the campaign.
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The State of Play: Standings Reveal Razor-Thin Margins
Following Matchday 34, the Serie A table reveals just how congested the race for European football has become. Atalanta lead the chasing pack in 3rd place with 65 points, followed closely by Juventus in 4th on 62 points. Bologna sit 5th with 61 points, while AS Roma and Lazio are neck-and-neck on 60 points in 6th and 7th, respectively. Fiorentina remain firmly in contention in 8th place with 59 points.
This remarkable proximity, a mere six points separating the team in 3rd from the team in 8th, underscores the intensity of the competition. A single victory or defeat in the remaining fixtures can cause significant shifts in the standings. Such minimal point differences inevitably amplify the psychological burden on both players and coaches. Any dropped points could see a team plummet down the table, while a win offers the potential for a substantial leapfrog. This high-pressure environment demands immense focus and resilience in the final weeks.
Furthermore, with points totals so close, tie-breaking procedures could well come into play. According to Serie A regulations, head-to-head records (points, then goal difference) are the primary tie-breakers. Should those fail to separate teams, the overall goal difference becomes the deciding factor. In this context, Atalanta’s substantial goal difference (+36) provides them with a considerable advantage over their rivals. Conversely, Lazio (+12) and Bologna (+15) possess lower goal differences compared to Juventus (+20), AS Roma (+17), and Fiorentina (+19), making them potentially more vulnerable should they finish level on points with competitors.
Table 1: Serie A European Race Standings (After Matchday 34)
Decoding the European Puzzle: Qualification Spots Explained (2025-26 Season)
Understanding the qualification pathways for the 2025-26 UEFA competitions is crucial to appreciating the stakes. Typically, the top four finishers in Serie A secure automatic qualification for the UEFA Champions League group stage. The fifth-placed team earns a spot in the UEFA Europa League, while the sixth-placed team enters the UEFA Conference League play-off round.
For the current 2024-25 Champions League, Italy benefited from an additional fifth qualification spot via the European Performance Spot (EPS) mechanism. This was awarded because Italian clubs collectively achieved one of the top two highest association club coefficients during the 2023-24 season. However, this bonus will not be repeated for the 2025-26 season. Current UEFA coefficient rankings for the 2024-25 season indicate that England and Spain secured the two EPS places for the next campaign. Barring an unforeseen and dramatic late surge in European results for Italian clubs, Serie A will revert to its standard allocation of four Champions League places determined by league standings. This significantly raises the stakes for Juventus (currently 4th) and Bologna (currently 5th), making a top-four finish paramount for UCL aspirations.
Adding another layer of complexity is the Coppa Italia final, scheduled for May 14th, which pits AC Milan (currently 9th in Serie A) against Bologna. The winner of this competition earns a direct place in the UEFA Europa League group stage for the following season. The outcome of this final has significant ramifications for the European places allocated via the league:
- Scenario 1: Bologna wins the Coppa Italia: If Bologna lifts the trophy and finishes in a European qualifying position through the league (e.g., 5th place, which already grants a UEL spot), their league position takes precedence for qualification. The Europa League spot awarded to the Coppa Italia winner is then transferred to the next highest-placed team in the Serie A table that has not already qualified for a UEFA competition. Assuming the top four qualify for the UCL and Bologna finish 5th (UEL), the 6th-placed team would likely gain the UEL spot initially designated for 5th place. The Coppa Italia winner’s UEL spot would then effectively grant the 7th-placed team qualification for the UEFA Conference League.
- Scenario 2: AC Milan wins the Coppa Italia: If AC Milan, currently sitting outside the European places in 9th, wins the cup, they will claim the Europa League spot allocated to the Coppa Italia winner directly. In this case, the standard league qualification pathway would apply for the remaining spots: 5th place would secure the other Europa League place, and 6th place would qualify for the UEFA Conference League. The team finishing 7th would likely miss out on European football entirely, barring other complex scenarios like the winners of the current season’s Champions League or Europa League also qualifying via their domestic league.
Consequently, the Coppa Italia final holds immense significance, particularly for Lazio (7th) and potentially Fiorentina (8th). A Bologna victory could open the door for the 7th-placed finisher to snatch the Conference League spot. Conversely, an AC Milan triumph would likely close that door, making a top-six finish the minimum requirement for European qualification via the league standings for those teams.
Contenders Under the Microscope: Form, Stars, and Strategies
With the standings and qualification rules clarified, the focus shifts to the individual contenders navigating this treacherous final stretch. Each club faces unique challenges related to form, personnel, coaching strategies, and the difficulty of their remaining fixtures.
Atalanta (3rd, 65 pts): Can Gasperini’s Men Hold On?
Atalanta currently occupy 3rd place, seemingly in a strong position. However, their recent form has shown vulnerabilities. Their last five league outings yielded two wins, one draw, and two losses (L-L-W-W-D). They were held to a 1-1 draw by struggling Lecce on Matchday 34, halting momentum gained from two prior victories that followed a worrying three-game losing streak. Earlier in the season, they demonstrated their potential with an impressive 11-match winning run.
The Bergamo club’s success this season has been heavily powered by striker Mateo Retegui, who leads the Serie A scoring charts with an exceptional 24 goals. His contribution is vital, equalling Filippo Inzaghi‘s club record for goals in a single Serie A season. Ademola Lookman has also been a key contributor with 13 goals.
Manager Gian Piero Gasperini, a long-serving figure at the club, has publicly stressed that securing Champions League football would be an “extraordinary achievement” for Atalanta. He has cautioned his team against complacency or “arrogance,” perhaps sensing the pressure despite their current standing. While injuries hampered the team earlier, recent reports suggest fewer major concerns, though maintaining squad fitness remains crucial. Gasperini’s future has also been subject to minor speculation; while he insists he never stated he would leave, he confirmed he wouldn’t extend his contract beyond 2026, potentially creating subtle background noise. His immediate focus, however, remains firmly on the UCL prize.
Looking ahead, Atalanta face Monza away on Matchday 35, followed by potentially decisive clashes against AS Roma (H), Genoa (A), and Parma (H). Their strong goal difference is an asset, but their reliance on Retegui’s prolific scoring is undeniable. Any drop in his form could significantly impact their ability to secure the necessary points in the final push.
Juventus (4th, 62 pts): Tudor Seeking Consistency Amidst Pressure
Juventus cling to the fourth position, the final likely automatic Champions League spot, but with Bologna breathing down their necks. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, particularly a high number of draws – 14 in 34 matches. Their recent form reflects this pattern: W-D-W-L-W in the last five league games, including a 2-0 win over Monza last time out. They did enjoy the league’s longest unbeaten run (21 matches) earlier in the campaign.
Offensively, Juventus have relied on Dušan Vlahović, but his tally of 9 goals is lower than might be expected for a leading striker at the club. Injuries have persistently plagued the squad, disrupting rhythm and continuity, a point acknowledged by coach Igor Tudor. Recent absentees have included key defenders like Bremer and attackers like Arkadiusz Milik. The loan signing of Renato Veiga from Chelsea aimed to bolster defensive options.
Igor Tudor, appointed after the dismissal of Thiago Motta, finds himself under considerable scrutiny. Criticisms have centred on the team’s often-laboured style of play, disappointing exits from cup competitions, and inconsistent league results. Tudor maintains a game-by-game focus, emphasizing psychological preparation and refusing to use injuries as an excuse. The high frequency of draws points towards difficulties in breaking down opponents and securing victories, often relying on individual moments rather than fluid team play. This perceived lack of attacking creativity and inability to dominate games makes them vulnerable, especially against well-organized sides.
The upcoming fixture list is challenging, starting with a massive away clash against direct rivals Bologna on Matchday 35. This is followed by another tough away game at Lazio, before concluding with matches against Udinese (H) and Venezia (A). Given the pressure on Tudor and the potential financial implications of missing the Champions League, the outcome of the Bologna match could be pivotal not just for their European hopes but potentially for the coach’s future at the club.
Bologna (5th, 61 pts): Italiano’s High-Flyers Eyeing Double Glory
Bologna have been one of Serie A’s success stories, currently sitting 5th and guaranteeing at least Europa League football, while also reaching the Coppa Italia final. They trail Juventus by just one point in the race for the UCL. Their recent league form saw them draw 0-0 with Udinese on Matchday 34, following a pattern of W-W-D-L-W in their last five league games. Earlier in the spring, they enjoyed a five-match winning streak that propelled them into contention, including a notable victory over Inter. Their defensive solidity has been a key feature throughout the campaign.
Riccardo Orsolini leads their scoring charts with 12 goals, while forward Dan Ndoye has also made important contributions. The squad possesses depth with players like Jens Odgaard and Tommaso Pobega providing options.
Coach Vincenzo Italiano has expertly guided the team. He has praised his squad’s mentality and acknowledged the historic significance of reaching the Coppa Italia final, calling it a “dream” for the city. He approaches opponents like Atalanta with “great respect” and is expected to utilize squad rotation given the proximity of crucial league games and the cup final.
Bologna face a potentially season-defining period. They host Juventus in a monumental clash on Matchday 35 (May 4th). This is followed by challenging away trips to AC Milan (potentially May 9th) and Fiorentina, before the Coppa Italia final against AC Milan in Rome on May 14th. This intense schedule, featuring direct rivals for European places and the cup final, presents both a huge challenge and a massive opportunity to secure a UCL spot and a major trophy. Italiano’s ability to manage his squad through this demanding fortnight, balancing league ambitions with the pursuit of silverware while maintaining their strong defensive structure, will be critical to their success.
AS Roma (6th, 60 pts): Giallorossi’s Rollercoaster Season Continues Under Ranieri
AS Roma find themselves 6th, level on points with city rivals Lazio, holding onto the potential Conference League spot (which could become Europa League depending on the Coppa Italia outcome). Their season has been turbulent, marked by significant managerial upheaval. Daniele De Rossi was dismissed early on, replaced by Ivan Jurić, whose tenure was short-lived and largely unsuccessful before the vastly experienced Claudio Ranieri took the helm.
Under Ranieri, Roma have shown signs of resurgence, reflected in their recent form: W-D-D-W-W over the last five league matches, culminating in an impressive 1-0 away victory against Inter on Matchday 34. This contrasts sharply with the struggles under Jurić, whose tactical approach reportedly clashed with the squad’s strengths, leading to inconsistent performances and focus issues. Artem Dovbyk leads the line with 11 goals, while Matias Soule provided a recent moment of brilliance. Injury updates under Ranieri are needed, as several players like Alexis Saelemaekers and Paulo Dybala were concerns under the previous regime.
While Ranieri’s steady hand seems to have stabilized the ship, the underlying effects of the season’s instability could pose a challenge during the high-pressure run-in. Their remaining fixture list appears particularly daunting: a crucial home game against direct rivals Fiorentina on Matchday 35, followed by trips to Atalanta and Torino, and a home clash with AC Milan. Facing three teams directly involved in the European scramble, arguably gives Roma the toughest final stretch among the contenders. Their ability to maintain focus and execute Ranieri’s game plan against such strong opposition will determine their European fate.
Lazio (7th, 60 pts): Baroni Balancing League Push and European Fatigue
Level on points with Roma but behind on goal difference or head-to-head, Lazio currently sit just outside the automatic European places. Their qualification likely hinges on either overtaking Roma or benefiting from a Bologna win in the Coppa Italia. Their recent form has been mixed (L-D-W-D-W in the last five league games), including a 2-2 draw with Parma last weekend. Their form was described as ‘stuttering’ before the recent derby draw with Roma.
A significant factor for Lazio has been their participation in the UEFA Europa League knockout stages. They faced Bodo/Glimt in the quarter-finals around Matchday 33/34, adding fixture congestion and potential fatigue to an already demanding period. This has been compounded by a lengthy list of injuries and fitness concerns, impacting key players like top scorer Taty Castellanos (10 goals), Nuno Tavares, Patric, Pedro, Matias Vecino, Tijjani Noslin, Elseid Hysaj, and Fisayo Dele-Bashiru at various points.
Coach Marco Baroni, appointed pre-season, remains committed to his attacking 4-2-3-1 formation despite recent results. He felt his team deserved more from the derby draw and acknowledged the challenges posed by the schedule and injuries. While the club hierarchy publicly stated Baroni is “not up for discussion,” they also expressed only being “moderately satisfied” following a heavy defeat earlier in the season, hinting his position might not be entirely secure long-term.
Lazio’s run-in includes an away trip to relegation-threatened Empoli on Matchday 35, followed by tough encounters against Juventus (H), Inter (A), and Lecce (H). The combination of European fatigue, potential squad depth issues due to injuries, and facing top-tier opponents like Juventus and Inter makes their final push particularly challenging. Their ability to manage resources and grind out results will be crucial.
Fiorentina (8th, 59 pts): Palladino’s Viola Aiming for Late Surge & European Glory?
Fiorentina sit just one point behind Roma and Lazio, needing a strong finish to climb into the league’s European spots. They boast recent positive form, winning their last two league matches, including a 2-1 victory over Empoli on Matchday 34, contributing to a W-D-D-W-W record in their last five Serie A games. This upturn follows a difficult period where they suffered three consecutive league defeats.
Crucially, Fiorentina remain active in the UEFA Conference League, providing an alternative route to European football next season. Winning this competition would grant them automatic qualification for the UEFA Europa League, irrespective of their final league position.
Their attack is spearheaded by Moise Kean, who has netted an impressive 17 goals. However, concerns linger after he suffered a significant head injury recently, although reports suggest he is expected back soon. Midfielder Rolando Mandragora also recently scored a vital goal but subsequently picked up an injury, adding to the worries. Yacine Adli has chipped in with goals and assists, while Robin Gosens also faced a recent fitness issue.
Coach Raffaele Palladino, another pre-season appointment, has praised his team’s growing maturity and pragmatism. He acknowledges the physical demands of competing on two fronts but emphasizes the importance of mentality and effective squad management. The team appears to have found stability playing a 3-5-2 formation. This dual focus on league position and Conference League success offers a potential safety net but requires astute handling of player workload across crucial remaining fixtures.
Fiorentina face a pivotal Matchday 35 clash away at AS Roma. Their remaining league games are against Venezia (A), Bologna (H), and Udinese (A). Their European fate could be decided either by their league finish, heavily influenced by the Roma game, or by their progress in the Conference League. The fitness of key attackers like Kean and Mandragora will be vital for success on either front.
The Decisive Run-In: Key Clashes Loom Large
The final four matchdays of the Serie A season are packed with fixtures that will directly shape the European qualification landscape. The sheer number of head-to-head encounters between the six main contenders means the race will likely be decided in these crucial battles.
Matchday 35 (May 2-5) immediately throws up several high-stakes confrontations:
The AS Roma vs Fiorentina match acts almost as an elimination game, with the winner gaining a significant advantage over a direct rival. Similarly, the Bologna vs Juventus encounter is effectively a playoff for the coveted fourth spot, potentially deciding Champions League qualification. Lazio and Atalanta, facing teams lower down the table, know that anything less than three points could be disastrous at this stage.
Beyond Matchday 35, other critical fixtures loom, including Atalanta vs AS Roma, Lazio vs Juventus, and Fiorentina vs Bologna. These direct confrontations are essentially ‘six-pointers’, where points gained by one team are directly denied to a rival, causing potentially decisive swings in the tightly packed standings. The outcomes of these specific head-to-head matches are likely to carry more weight than results against teams outside this group of six.
Final Whistle Forecast: Down to the Wire
The race for European places in Serie A is poised for a thrilling conclusion. With just six points separating six teams and a multitude of direct clashes still to come, predicting the final standings with any certainty is nigh on impossible. The competition is fierce, the margins are minimal, and the pressure is immense.
Several key factors will ultimately determine which teams celebrate European qualification come the end of May. The results in the head-to-head matches will be paramount. The outcome of the Coppa Italia final between AC Milan and Bologna will significantly alter the qualification landscape, particularly for the teams hovering around 6th and 7th place. For Lazio and Fiorentina, managing fatigue and squad depth while juggling domestic and European commitments will be a critical test. The ability of coaches like Gasperini, Tudor, Italiano, Ranieri, Baroni, and Palladino to navigate the pressure and make the right tactical decisions will be vital. Finally, moments of individual brilliance from key players, the goals of Retegui, Kean, and Orsolini, the resilience of defences, and the creativity in midfield could provide the decisive edge.
One thing is certain: the final weeks of the Serie A season promise high drama, tension, and excitement as this captivating European scramble goes down to the wire.
