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Miami Dolphins 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Another Day Closer to Death, Is Mike McDaniel Making It to 2026?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar26/08/2025 - 12:06 pm
(Photo by Kara Durrette/Getty Images)

Coaching the Miami Dolphins is no picnic. It’s always hot and humid, the ownership (Stephen Ross) is seedy, and the team still hasn’t won an NFL playoff game since the 2000 season. But the way three years on the job has aged 42-year-old coach Mike McDaniel has been something to behold.

McDaniel went from a young offensive sage (A Beautiful Mind) to A Serious Man, someone who says it’s a great morning “because we’re another day closer to death.”

The comment echoed the line Kyle Shanahan, McDaniel’s mentor and superior at the time, said in 2021 to a question about Jimmy Garoppolo’s roster status.

Are these guys okay? Losing is tough, especially when you’re on that pursuit of an elusive Super Bowl ring, or even just a single playoff win in McDaniel’s case. But it’s been a tough offseason with trying to push back on some of Tyreek Hill’s public comments about the play-calling, and even a Detroit Lions linebacker questioned Miami’s joint practice habits.

At BetOnline, McDaniel leads all coaches with +200 odds to be the first coach fired this season. There’s precedent for that too as the last two times Miami fired its coach during the season, it was the last two coaches to have a fourth season with the team: Joe Philbin in 2015 and Tony Sparano in 2011.

The oddsmakers are banking on the playoff drought to continue too this year. The Dolphins are a coin flip to win over 7.5 games, which puts them third in the AFC East.

Forget the Five-Year Rule, which states no team has ever won its first Super Bowl starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years. McDaniel may not even see a fifth season with Tua Tagovailoa in Miami if things don’t pick up here.

Bad practice habits or not, the Dolphins performed admirably in the preseason, tying with the Bears and defeating the Lions and Jaguars. But we’ve seen those August results hold no predictive value many times before.

Let’s review why things went sour for the Dolphins in 2024, why it could happen again, and the best Dolphins bets for 2025.

Previously on DOLPHINS: Played the “Get Out of Jail Free” Card Too Early

You could argue the 2024 Dolphins peaked in Week 1. Superstar wideout Tyreek Hill had the wildest start to his season when he was temporarily arrested outside the team’s stadium just before their kickoff against the Jaguars. It was a traffic violation, and Hill was able to play and scored an 80-yard touchdown, the longest on a reception of his career to spark a comeback win.

But on a Thursday night in Week 2 against Buffalo, Tua Tagovailoa went headfirst on a scramble right into the chest of Damar Hamlin, and that led to at least the fourth concussion incident since 2022 in Tua’s NFL career. It was an avoidable hit in a game where Miami was losing badly, but that’s been his biggest issue.

That just blows up your season as the Dolphins went 1-3 in their next four games, and those losses were all winnable games against the Seahawks (24-3), Titans (31-12), and Colts (16-10).  By the time Tua returned, the Dolphins were 2-4 and lost some tough games where he played well against Arizona and Buffalo to fall to 2-6.

The knock on McDaniel has always been a failure to beat the good teams on the road. McDaniel is now 2-13 on the road against teams that make the playoffs. He won his first such game (2022 Ravens) but lost the next 11.

However, that streak finally ended with a 23-15 win against the Rams on a Monday night. The Rams weren’t playing great at the time, but they rebounded and won the NFC West last year. So, at least that streak ended.

But in trying to crawl back into the AFC wild card race at 5-6, it creeped up again. The Dolphins were humbled on Thanksgiving night with a 30-17 loss in Green Bay, then Tagovailoa had a terrible game with too many turnovers in a 20-12 loss in Houston.

After another injury ended Tua’s season short, the Dolphins lost to the Jets in the finale and finished 8-9. The defense actually ranked better than McDaniel’s offense for the season, a sign of how bad things went in most of the games without Tagovailoa available.

Miami Dolphins Offseason Review

The Dolphins retained the same coordinators around McDaniel for another season. Due to trades, the Dolphins made only two draft selections in the first 140 picks in April, but there’s some hope for some of their late-round picks. They also made a rare trade of players at the end of June.

Doesn’t Feel Like Addition by Subtraction: The Minkah Fitzpatrick Trade

It’s unusual to see a team trade an NFL player away and then trade back for him years later. But that’s what the Dolphins have done with safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. They shopped him to the Steelers in 2019 where he flourished for years. But in late June, the Dolphins ended up trading corner Jalen Ramsey and tight end Jonnu Smith to Pittsburgh in exchange for Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins also gave up a 2027 seventh-round pick to get a 2027 fifth-round pick, but that’s pretty immaterial to the big trade here.

Does the trade make Miami better in 2025? Fitzpatrick fills a need at safety, but he’s only made one interception and forced one fumble over the last two seasons combined in Pittsburgh. The lack of splash plays made him expendable there, and rumors persist that when someone on the Steelers said they had 10 guys on the same page and one off on defense, some believe they were talking about Minkah, hence the trade. But that’s not confirmed.

Giving up Jalen Ramsey is also tough since you can never have enough good corners. He’s going on 31 and likely has seen his best days behind him, but he still started every game last season and only allowed 6.5 yards per target.

To make matters worse, the Dolphins have already lost corner Kader Kohou for the season after he tore his ACL in training camp. Without Ramsey and Kohou, the Dolphins will have to lean on Storm Duck and new corner Jack Jones (Raiders). Maybe fifth-round rookie Jason Marshall Jr. can help at nickel corner. Even with Fitzpatrick and adding Lions safety Ifeatu Melifonwu, that feels like a downgraded secondary or a lateral move at best.

But the part not as many are talking about is Jonnu Smith going to Pittsburgh. If I asked who was Miami’s leading receiver in 2024, you’d assume Tyreek Hill, which is why smart money would be on Jaylen Waddle. Why ask the question if the answer was just Hill? But Waddle would be wrong too. It was Smith, who led the team with 88 catches. Hell, the only thing that stopped him from leading the team in yards was Hill’s 80-yard touchdown in Week 1.

More than that, Smith was by far Tua’s favorite weapon when he returned from the concussion. Now, the 2025 Dolphins will try to rely on tight end Darren Waller, who turns 33 in September and came out of retirement for this season. His production was already falling off since 2022, and after a year away, it’s hard to think they didn’t downgrade at tight end too here.

Another important element to Smith’s career year at tight end was that this offense has struggled to find a third receiver after Hill and Waddle. Smith finally filled that void for McDaniel and Tua. Instead, they have signed Tennessee wideout Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. He’s made some plays, but we’ll see if he can fit in as a WR3 in an offense that has done little to feature WR3.

Getting worse at corner and tight end to get better at safety. Was it really worth it? Guess we’ll just have to find out.

Dolphins: Improving the Trenches

There should be some attention on the offensive line. Tagovailoa will get rid of the ball faster than his backups couldn’t last year, so that helps them out. However, the Dolphins signed Zach Wilson, who has been abysmal in the NFL, so it’s even more important for Tua to stay healthy this year. They also used a seventh-round pick on Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, the player fans couldn’t wait to see replaced by Arch Manning.

But the running game was not up to par for the Dolphins last year, who ranked 28th in yards per carry. Even the explosive De’Von Achane was held to 4.5 yards per carry, and his backups were under 3.8. Raheem Mostert also left for the Raiders. That’s not good when we know Achane is often banged up and can’t carry the full load.

There is some hype for sixth-round rookie back Ollie Gordon II from Oklahoma State where he led the nation with 1,732 rushing yards in 2023 before a ho-hum 2024 season (880 yards) that saw him slip to the sixth round. Maybe he can pick things up for the Dolphins after rushing for 50 yards against Detroit in the preseason.

But the offensive line is going to have to get better for these backs to shine. New right guard James Daniels has 84 starts as a marginal starter with the Bears and most recently the Steelers where his 2024 season ended after four games with injury.

But it’s the draft where the Dolphins really addressed the trenches. They used the No. 13 pick on Michigan’s second-best defensive lineman in Kenneth Grant, who should be an edge rusher here. Someone to give Zach Sieler, who’s quietly had back-to-back 10-sack seasons, help on the other edge. Chop Robinson is also going into his second season after 6.0 sacks as a rookie, so there are young pieces they’re building up on defense if Grant can deliver on the draft hype.

Finally, with the No. 37 pick, the Dolphins drafted Arizona left guard Jonah Savaiinaea, which is exponentially harder to remember how to spell than Tagovailoa. He has a chance to be a good player too, so maybe a nickname will emerge through all those vowels.

Best Bets for the 2025 Dolphins    

I’m very skeptical that McDaniel is back for the 2026 season, but it would take a brutal start and tough schedule for him to end up as the first coach fired. So, with a win total of 7.5 games, how does this schedule for Miami look?

  • They’re an underdog against the Colts in Week 1 where they lost last year without Tua, but that’s a winnable game when Tua is better than Daniel Jones.
  • First matchup with New England is Week 2, so hopefully it’ll be hot as hell in September and Mike Vrabel does his best Bill Belichick impersonation and melts down there.
  • Week 3 is Thursday night in Buffalo, and the gap hasn’t really closed here with that team that owns the AFC East, and Josh Allen owns Miami.
  • Week 4 is Monday night against the Jets, maybe the most winnable game of the month for Miami.
  • Week 5 is in Carolina, another winnable game against a flawed NFC team.
  • Tough game in hosting the Chargers in Week 6, but at least it’s an early body clock game for the West Coast team.
  • A Week 7 road game in Cleveland, which is not a good team.
  • Week 8 is at Atlanta, a team we picked to win the NFC South, so that could be tough.
  • Hosting the Ravens on a Thursday night in Week 9 will be hard.
  • A few extra days to prepare for the Bills, but does it matter with these teams?
  • Week 11 is overseas against Washington, the kind of team McDaniel usually can’t beat before the Week 12 bye.
  • Hosting the Saints before going to face the Jets is the best shot the Dolphins have all year at a winning streak.
  • Good luck in Pittsburgh on a Monday night as the Steelers haven’t lost one of those since 1991.
  • The Bengals come to Miami in Week 16 in what could be a good one.
  • Hosting the Buccaneers in Week 17 is another potential shootout.
  • Finish in New England in Week 18, which isn’t ideal.

The early season is easy enough to where McDaniel shouldn’t start 0-4 and get fired or anything crazy. However, that 4-game patch of Falcons/Ravens/Bills/Commanders all before the bye could be where he loses his job. If he loses his fourth in a row against the Commanders in Madrid, he might just go backpacking in Europe and crash out in Amsterdam at that point.

There’s not enough value (+200 at BetOnline) to take McDaniel to be the first coach fired, but I do think Miami finishes no better than 7-10, and they don’t bring him back for 2026.

But who knows if any of us will be here in 2026, right?

  • NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins under 7.5 wins (-110) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar26/08/2025 - 12:06 pm