2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship Preview: (1) Florida vs. (1) Houston
The biggest stage in college basketball is set: Florida will face Houston in the NCAA championship on Monday night after both teams knocked out the top two overall seeds in the Final Four, Auburn and Duke. Houston will be playing for their first-ever national championship title, and Florida will be playing for their first since their back-to-back titles in 2006 and 2007.
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The Teams
Florida, coached by Todd Golden, squeezed by Bruce Pearl’s top-seeded Auburn on Saturday thanks to a 34-point performance by Walter Clayton Jr. The Gators won by a score of 79-73. Per the KenPom rankings, Florida is ranked number two in the country in offensive rating, and in turn boasts the ninth-ranked defense.
Kelvin Sampson’s Houston dramatically defeated Jon Scheyer’s Duke Saturday night by a score of 70-67. L.J. Cryer scored 27 points for the Cougars, leading them to victory over the Blue Devils. Per KenPom, Houston has the country’s best defensive rating, and ranks ninth offensively.
One of the best offenses in the country going up against the best defense will be top-tier entertainment and should produce a fun championship matchup. It has not been an easy journey for either team, both narrowly escaping their Final Four matchups. Monday’s championship game should be cinematic basketball and fun for anyone into the sport.
Key Players
Walter Clayton Jr. has been fantastic for Florida in the tournament, averaging 24.6 points. His 34 points against Auburn in the Final Four helped carry the Gators to the national championship. If they want to take it all on Monday, he is their key to winning the game.
Alex Condon is the centerpiece of Florida’s top-10 defense, and he can certainly be looked at to make an impact on Monday night. He leads the team in both rebounds and blocks per game, with 7.6 rebounds and 1.4 blocks.
On the Houston end, L.J. Cryer runs the offense, averaging 18.6 points in the tournament. His 26 points on Saturday were enough for the Cougars’ epic comeback against Duke, and he will look to make some more noise in his final collegiate game.
As the number-one defense in the country, Houston has a lot of contributors, but none is as efficient from all ends as Joseph Tugler, averaging 7.2 rebounds in the tournament and 1.4 blocks. Against Duke, he had eight rebounds and four blocks. The Cougars have a deep defense, and the sophomore Tugler leads the pack in that territory.
Prediction
This is essentially a home game for Houston, as the game is being played in San Antonio. Fans will undoubtedly make the three-hour drive and show out for the national championship. Florida is a great team, but as the old saying goes, defense wins championships. Houston boasts the best of the best while also having a great offense to match up with Florida. This is a game that can truly go either way, but I’m siding with Kelvin Sampson’s winners of 18 in a row.
My pick: Houston
