Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 10

Scott Kacsmar07/11/2025 - 01:13 pm

The NFL is in the second half of the 2025 season, and let’s just hope Thursday night’s Raiders vs. Broncos game was the low point of Week 10. That game was abysmal with both teams amassing more penalties (11 each) than they did points (10-7 final) or first downs (10 each). Truly an eyesore, but we should have better NFL picks for games like Ravens vs. Vikings, Falcons vs. Colts, Steelers vs. Chargers, and Eagles vs. Packers.

In recapping our Week 9 picks, at least we had some solid SGPs hit for the Saints-Rams (+320) and Cardinals-Cowboys (+493) games. Might have gotten the Houston pick right if C.J. Stroud didn’t suffer a concussion. The teaser parlay was a nightmare with the Packers and Lions losing to the Panthers and Vikings. The Chiefs also lost in Buffalo, and only half of our J-name players scored a touchdown but at least we sniped the longer shots (Justin Jefferson and Jaxson Dart).

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Giants at Bears: The Preseason Passing Pros

Remember the 2025 preseason? It’s fine if you don’t as it’s ultimately meaningless. But the Giants (35.7) and Bears (30.3) were the scoring juggernauts in August. It hasn’t exactly carried over into the real games, but to their credit, the Bears have scored at least 21 points in all but one game this season, and they just won a crazy 47-42 shootout against the Bengals.

The Giants have been pretty solid at scoring with rookie Jaxson Dart despite the fact he’s lost his best wideout (Malik Nabers) and best running back (rookie Cam Skattebo) to season-ending injuries. Dart has led the Giants to at least 20 points in 4-of-5 starts, and it may have been 5-for-5 if Skattebo didn’t have that fumble returned for a touchdown in the fourth quarter in the New Orleans loss.

Neither defense is vey respectable right now, and the weather shouldn’t be terrible on Sunday in Chicago. Our favorite bet is for the Giants and Bears to score at least 20 points each.

Again, Chicago’s done it in all but one game. The Bears have also allowed at least 24 points in 6-of-8 games this season. The Giants have allowed at least 21 points in 7-of-9 games this year, including that 33 points in one fourth quarter in Denver.

It might even come down to a comeback opportunity yet, but we’re taking our chances with better than even odds that both teams score at least 20 points.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score 20+ Points (+102) at FanDuel

2. Falcons vs. Colts: Berlin 2025

The Colts had a very tough day in Pittsburgh with 6 giveaways after only turning the ball over 4 times in the first 8 games, and we know Adonai Mitchell just dropping the ball against the Rams was one of those turnovers. But this time, it was quarterback Daniel Jones giving it away 5 times in a variety of ways too.

The good news is that game should be an outlier. The bad news is the Falcons have a quality pass rush that could get in Jones’ face and cause some trouble in a game that will be played in an unusual place (Berlin, Germany) at an unusual body clock time for the team.

However, the Falcons are mediocre at best when it comes to stopping the run and allowing points. They also have one great receiver in Drake London, and that’s why you trade for someone like Sauce Gardner from the Jets to match up at corner. It sounds like Sauce is making the trip and will play for the team in this one, and they can certainly use him against London.

But this isn’t about just Jones. Jonathan Taylor only had 45 rushing yards in Pittsburgh. It’s about the offensive line getting back on track with a bounce-back game, controlling the line of scrimmage, and watching Taylor outrush Bijan Robinson on the other side to further make his grip on the Offensive Player of the Year award.

That’s why I like Taylor to go over 91.5 yards and for the Colts to beat the young Falcons with their new defender in Berlin.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Colts ML & Jonathan Taylor Over 91.5 Rushing Yards (+111 at FanDuel)

3. Bills at Dolphins: The Sweep

Few division rivalries are less interesting than Bills vs. Dolphins as Josh Allen has owned Miami his whole career. These teams met on TNF earlier this season and that was Miami’s golden opportunity to get a big road upset for coach Mike McDaniel, who is fighting to keep his job. But the Dolphins gave up an awful first down on a roughing the punter penalty in a 21-21 game in the fourth quarter. Then Tua Tagovailoa threw a gross pick and they lost 31-21.

I think that was the “close game” between these two teams this year. Buried on the Sunday afternoon slate instead of a prime-time setting that is ripe for the underdog to cover anymore, look for the Bills to trounce the Dolphins similar to the way the Ravens did last week. Buffalo’s defense has gotten better since Sean McDermott took over play-calling duties again, and he’ll get after Tua with that pass rush.

Josh Allen got his Tush Push touchdowns last week to beat the Chiefs. He throws multiple touchdowns in a double-digit win this time.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Josh Allen 2+ Passing Touchdowns & Bills -9.5 (+163 at FanDuel)

4. Ravens at Vikings: Fake Demon?

J.J. McCarthy has only started three NFL games, so it’s a miniscule sample size in the NFL. But it’s a little surprising to see his passing yardage line is 208.5 yards here. This is a quarterback who has thrown for 143, 158, and 143 yards in his 3 starts this year. He had a lot of short fields to work with in the 27-24 games he won on the road with 143 yards, but that’s still a far cry from 208.5.

Also, the Ravens are allowing 13.0 points per game on defense the last three outings. Similar to last year, they’ve turned things around after a bad start, and it helps that they’ve been healthier on that side of the ball.

Lamar Jackson has shredded Brian Flores’ defense before, and it’s a unit that is more bark than bite, not withstanding the job they did of getting Jared Goff to the ground last week. But I think Jackson plays well, certainly better than McCarthy, and the Ravens get the road win while holding McCarthy under in passing.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Ravens ML & J.J. McCarthy Under 208.5 Passing Yards (+147 at FanDuel)

5. Steelers at Chargers: Which Way, Pittsburgh?

We have a 3-leg parlay for SNF with the Steelers taking on the Chargers:

1st Quarter Under 9.5 Points
T.J. Watt to Record a Sack
Steelers +7.5

It’s the third week in a row the Steelers are playing a high-profile game after already losing to the Packers before upsetting the 7-1 Colts. They’re a 3-point underdog, but we’re going to tease that line to +7.5 as they should compete well in this game.

These teams played last year and it was a 20-10 win for the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Justin Herbert wasn’t 100% going into that one, and sure enough, he left in the third quarter with an injury. But it was low scoring, and the Steelers have gone 58 straight games without scoring more than 7 points in the first quarter, tied for the second-longest streak since the merger. The Giants had an 80-game streak they ended in October.

The point is Pittsburgh doesn’t start fast, and this should be an ugly game with the way the Steelers go 3-and-out so frequently, and the Chargers just lost Joe Alt to a season-ending ankle injury. That means Herbert is without both tackles again, and he’s been very vulnerable to hits and sacks in that situation. That’s why I like T.J. Watt to continue last week’s great game with at least one sack here of Herbert.

The Steelers absolutely could win this one late, but we’re content with a parlay that takes advantage of the slow start of a defensive grind where Watt shines and the Steelers don’t lose by more than 7 points.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – 1st Quarter Under 9.5 Points & T.J. Watt to Record a Sack & Steelers +7.5 (+248 at FanDuel)

6. Eagles at Packers: MNF Parlay

We have a 4-leg parlay for the Monday night showdown between the Eagles and Packers (-2.5) that’s taken a little bit of a hit with the way Green Bay lost to Carolina and lost Tucker Kraft in the process to a torn ACL. But it’s still an important game and we’re backing the Eagles:

Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer
A.J. Brown 4+ Receptions
Eagles +2.5

The Eagles swept the Packers to start and end Green Bay’s 2024 season. The Packers likely had this one circled since May, but I think the Kraft injury leaves them shorthanded and they lose that tight end threat while the Eagles come in rested off the bye.

Josh Jacobs will find the end zone again as he did in the playoff loss, but in a big game, you can’t doubt Jalen Hurts using the Tush Push to score another touchdown. We also like A.J. Brown to catch at least 4 balls as he needs to be the priority again with this passing offense.

Finally, we’re going to trust Jalen Carter and the pass rush to force Love into enough mistakes, and the Eagles should prevail on the road. We’ll take the spread just to be a little safer about it.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer & A.J. Brown 4+ Receptions & Eagles +2.5 (+780 at FanDuel)

7. Week 10 NFL Picks: Best of the Rest

Finally, we have a 5-leg parlay that isn’t necessarily a parlay as much as it is a collection of other picks we liked for Week 10. Mix and match as you please:

Breece Hall (Jets) Anytime Touchdown Scorer vs. Browns (+145 at FanDuel): After New York’s fire-sale on the defensive side, Hall scores a touchdown against that tough Cleveland defense to remind us he’s still with the team instead of in Kansas City where he could enjoy some winning.
Cade Otton (Buccaneers) Anytime Touchdown Scorer vs. Patriots (+180 at FanDuel): Seven players have caught 13 touchdowns for the Bucs and not a single one plays tight end. We’re banking on Cade Otton to end the drought and catch one against New England at home.
Sam Darnold (Seahawks) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns vs. Arizona (-172 at FanDuel): Darnold is as hot as any quarterback in the NFL right now, and the Arizona defense has already faced him. We’ll trust him to do better at home and throw multiple touchdowns.
Detroit Lions -8.5 at Washington (-110 at FanDuel): Dan Campbell has gone 12-0 ATS and SU after his last 12 losses. With Jayden Daniels (elbow) out, look for the Lions to rough up Marcua Mariota and a fading Commanders team and make that 13 straight covers after a loss.
Puka Nacua (Rams) Over 7.5 Receptions at 49ers (-130 at FanDuel): The 49ers are the only defense to hold Nacua under 90 yards this season in a game he played the full game for. But he still had 10 catches, and we know it’s a big FC West game, so we’re taking Matthew Stafford feeding him 8+ catches.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Random Week 10 NFL Picks Parlay (+3863 at FanDuel)

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