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Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 15

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar12/12/2025 - 05:02 pm
ORCHARD PARK, NY - JANUARY 09: Philip Rivers #17 of the Indianapolis Colts throws a pass during a game against the Buffalo Bills at Bills Stadium on January 9, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York.
(Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

The NFL has a really solid Week 15 schedule with the best games coming this Sunday afternoon. We have NFL picks for top games like Bills vs. Patriots, Chargers vs. Chiefs, Ravens vs. Bengals, and yes, in 2025 we actually are talking about Philip Rivers props in Seattle. Crazy year.

In recapping our Week 14 picks, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen put on the passing show we expected (+140), the Jaguars beat the Colts again, and Shedeur Sanders did throw for way more yards than Cam Ward. But the Eagles, Derrick Henry, and Travis Kelce sold three of our parlays that were otherwise fine.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. The New AFC South

We’ll get to the Colts game soon enough, but let’s start with a 3-leg parlay with the rest of the AFC South:

  • Jaguars -13.5 vs. Jets
  • Texans ML vs. Cardinals
  • 49ers ML vs. Titans

First, the 49ers should take care of the Titans, who used short fields to narrowly escape the Browns for their second win last week. Cam Ward still isn’t playing well, and a good, rested San Francisco team coming off the bye should be fine there as a 12.5-point home favorite.

Then we’re going with the Houston defense to slow down Jacoby Brissett and beat a 3-win Arizona team that either gets blown out or comes up short in the clutch. I don’t trust Brissett against that great defense in a one-dimensional approach. They should get to him.

Then we’re going with the spread for the Jets losing by 14+ in Jacksonville. I get the Jaguars are doing well, but this spread did absolutely concern me until I realized the Jets have to start Brady Cook at quarterback with Tyrod Taylor out. If this was Tyrod, I’d be all over Jets +13.5, or the spread probably would be more like +9.5. But with the Jaguars scoring 25+ every week since the bye and their ability to take the ball away, I’m going with them to win by 14+ at home against a no-name quarterback.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Jaguars -13.5 & Texans ML & 49ers ML (+150) at FanDuel

2. Ravens at Bengals: AFC North Shootout

We get the rematch from Thanksgiving where the Bengals shocked the Ravens in a 32-14 upset thanks to five turnovers. That was a game without Tee Higgins too, and it was Joe Burrow’s first game back since Week 2. He had to shake off some rust, but he led two touchdowns in the second half, and he was very good in Buffalo in the snow until some picks got him in a 39-34 loss as the Bengals continue to play poor defense.

Both of these teams have spent multiple weeks as the No. 32 scoring defense this year. We know they played two epic shootouts last year, and the Ravens at least looked a bit better on offense against Pittsburgh with 22 points scored.

But this is just playing the matchup. Both defenses can’t be trusted, and Ja’Marr Chase has owned the Ravens in his career. Lamar has usually owned the Bengals too, so I think both teams have the potential to reach 25 points here.

That’s why we’ll take the over 51.5 points and leave it at that. Simples.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Over 51.5 Points (-110) at FanDuel

CINCINNATI, OHIO - DECEMBER 28: Ja'Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals lines up for a play in the fourth quarter against the Denver Broncos at Paycor Stadium on December 28, 2024 in Cincinnati, Ohio.
(Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

3. Dolphins at Steelers: Tua in the Cold

The Dolphins (6-7) have won four games in a row, but this sure feels like a typical Miami season. They start off terribly, win a couple of games to recapture some hope, still lose to the main contenders on their schedule, then they’ll find a way to get close to 8-9 wins and miss the playoffs anyway. Rinse and repeat for basically the last 25 years.

But this is a good litmus test game as the Dolphins have been running the ball well, Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t thrown for 180 yards in any of the games during the winning streak, and they get a Pittsburgh defense that has been shaky and relying on turnovers. A defense that may not have T.J. Watt (lung) either.

But this is December football, and it’s going to be maybe 20 degrees at the absolute best when this one kicks off in Pittsburgh on Monday night. The Dolphins are 0-6 in the Tua era in games under 40 degrees, and this is an unfamiliar opponent as they haven’t met since 2022.

The Steelers also haven’t lost at home on Monday night since 1991. That’s 22 straight wins with half of them coming in the Mike Tomlin era. You don’t normally love him in this spot as a home favorite coming off a big win over Baltimore that has the Steelers (7-6) in first place in the AFC North. But Pittsburgh at home on a Monday night? I’ll bet against it when the streak is no longer a thing.

Make it 23-0, and if you can play a Tua interception with the moneyline, that might be the better choice. He’s got 14 picks this year, the worst rate of his career. But I went under 195.5 passing yards as I just don’t see him stepping up here in freezing temperatures without Tyreek Hill.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Tua Tagovailoa Under 195.5 Passing Yards & Steelers ML (+170) at FanDuel

4. Colts at Seahawks: I Know That Ain’t Who I Think It Is…

This is just shocking stuff. The Colts are so desperate for a quarterback after injuries to Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, and Riley Leonard, that it appears they are going to go with a 44-year-old Philip Rivers, the retired grandpa who hasn’t played a game since January 2021.

What does it say about the NFL that they couldn’t find someone like a Brian Hoyer type to step in? At least he’s played as recently as 2023. But there are only a few reasons this can even happen:

  • Philip Rivers is one of the most competitive players of all time, a true football psychopath.
  • Rivers spent most of the 2010s with the Chargers with Colts coach Shane Steichen on the staff, so they know each other well and he has expertise in Steichen’s offensive system.
  • Rivers played for the 2020 Colts, so he actually does have some muscle memory of throwing passes to Michael Pittman, handing off to Jonathan Taylor, etc.

But this whole thing could be a total disaster as there’s really only one precedent for it in NFL history, and even that example needs some context that isn’t going to be here with Rivers, who signed Tuesday, his 44th birthday.

There was a quarterback named Steve DeBerg, who had a long NFL career and was backing up quarterbacks like John Elway, Steve Young, Vinny Testaverde, Dan Marino, and had his best year with the Chiefs. He played his last NFL game in December 1993 at the age of 39, then he retired, got into coaching, but came back to play for former coach Dan Reeves with the 1998 Falcons at 44 years old.

DeBerg was on the team for several weeks, if not months, before he finally got a start against a really good Jets team that year that finished 12-4, big year for Testaverde, and the top-ranked defense coached by Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick. DeBerg got the start for an injured Chris Chandler on what was a great Atlanta offense that reached the Super Bowl that year. But DeBerg, playing his first start in five years, was brutal. He was 9-of-20 for 117 yards, an interception, 3 sacks, lost a fumble for a touchdown, and he was benched in the third quarter of a 28-3 loss.

The Seahawks are 10-3 and playing great football, especially on defense. This could be a nasty game too with that defense going up against a 44-year-old quarterback who was already someone who couldn’t move in 2020. How’s he going to fare here?

That’s why I really like this little 3-leg parlay for the game:

  • Philip Rivers 150+ Passing Yards
  • Philip Rivers 1+ Passes Intercepted
  • Seahawks -6.5 (Alternate Line)

Interestingly enough, a sportsbook like FanDuel has Rivers’ passing yardage line set to over/under 150.5 yards. Earlier this season, I noted that Patrick Mahomes set an NFL record when he had his 116th consecutive game with at least 150 passing yards. But Philip Rivers did it in his last 106 games, a streak that is technically active and one he can still add onto here.

I think Rivers gets there as he is the only quarterback they can play, so I don’t see him exiting the game unless he gets hurt. But he usually knows how to get rid of the ball and protect himself. That’s also why I think he’ll get picked off at least once, because he’s not going to want to get hit, so he’ll just chuck the ball anywhere. Easy pick play.

Seahawks really should cover the 14-point spread, but let’s lower it to -6.5 and get +275 odds on our little Philip Rivers, Welcome Back to the NFL parlay. It should be quite the spectacle on Sunday.

Also, I honestly believe he’s doing this because he knew he was coming up short for the Hall of Fame vote, which he is a semifinalist for the 2026 class. He never won an MVP or got to the Super Bowl like many of his peers did. If he can come back and help the Colts into the playoffs with this tough schedule of defenses after stepping away for 5 years, it’s one of the most impressive feats in NFL history, and it would cement his HOF case and get him in.

If he’s terrible, so what? He already was not getting into Canton and at least he tried. It’s really a win-win situation for him here, barring he can survive the game with his body intact.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Philip Rivers 150+ Passing Yards & Philip Rivers 1+ Passes Intercepted & Seahawks -6.5 (+275) at BetRivers

5. Bills at Patriots: The AFC East Title Game

We have a 3-leg SGP for the AFC East title game between the Bills and Patriots. It’s not a true title game since the Bills can’t clinch it with a win, but the Patriots can end their reign in the division with the win here. The Bills are actually a 1.5-point favorite on the road, meaning the Patriots are a home underdog despite being on a 10-game winning streak, coming off a bye, and already beating the Bills this year. Crazy season.

  • Josh Allen Over 228.5 Passing Yards
  • Dalton Kincaid Over 43.5 Receiving Yards
  • Bills ML

The way I see it is similar to the 2021 season. The Bills lost a 14-10 game at home in extreme wind to the Patriots, who had a shot at the No .1 seed. The rematch came a few weeks later at New England, Josh Allen put the team on his back, and the Bills won that one to storm back and take the AFC East. They also crushed the Patriots 47-17 in the wild card, scoring seven touchdowns on seven drives.

Things are different right now as the Bills are much more erratic this year. They’ve turned the ball over a lot lately, and turnovers were a big reason why they lost the first meeting, the first time they lost the turnover battle in 26 games. But I also think they underestimated the Patriots that night, and Stefon Diggs played a spirited game against his former team.

The Patriots are better in 2025 than 2021 since Drake Maye is better than Mac Jones, but I don’t think this team has been tested enough because of the weakest schedule of any NFL team since 1999. That goes for both sides of the ball, so if you get a battle-tested team like Buffalo who knows how to prepare for the big games in the regular season (see Kansas City), I think they show up here big, and I think Allen tests that defense with a healthy Dalton Kincaid who had over 100 yards in the first matchup.

I’m taking the Bills to win even though the Patriots should still win the AFC East this year.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – 3 Legs (+358 at FanDuel)

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 5: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills reacts prior to the game against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on October 5, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York.
(Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)

6. Chargers at Chiefs: Last Stand

It’s basically the last stand for the Chiefs this week as they need a win at 6-7 to stay alive for the playoffs. Their AFC West reign is officially over. The Chargers come in at 9-4 after an overtime win against the Eagles on Monday night, but Justin Herbert took a beating in that game one week after hand surgery. The sportsbooks can’t seem to quit KC as they are a 5.5-point home favorite in an early body clock game for Los Angeles.

We have a 6-leg parlay for this one:

  • Patrick Mahomes 15+ Rushing Yards
  • Justin Herbert 15+ Rushing Yards
  • Patrick Mahomes 1+ Passing Touchdown
  • Travis Kelce 30+ Receiving Yards
  • George Karlaftis 1+ Sack

First, we’re going with both quarterbacks to rush for at least 15 yards, which should be a given as they have to survive playing with backup tackles against these pass rushes. Both rushed for around 60 yards last week.

After throwing no touchdowns last week, we got to give Patrick Mahomes at least one here, and Travis Kelce can’t go down sad like he did Sunday, his first NFL game with more drops (2) than catches (1). Give him at least 30 yards here as tight end Dallas Goedert (78 yards) looked really good against this defense for Philadelphia on Monday night. I think Mahomes will make a point to get Kelce’s confidence back up.

Then with the pass rush, the Chiefs have to win this matchup at home. The Chargers gave up a career-high 7 sacks at home for Herbert, who didn’t even have to face Jalen Carter in his face. But the Chargers are down their tackles, they’ve been giving up lots of hits and sacks on Herbert, and George Karlaftis has to come through here for the Chiefs. He has 6.0 sacks this year, including one in Brazil on Herbert and one last week.

Finally, we’re still going to back the Chiefs to win, but that says more about the Chargers looking beat up on a short week and traveling cross country than any real faith in Kansas City right now.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – 6 Legs (+660 at FanDuel)

7. Best of the Rest NFL Parlay

Finally, we have a 5-leg parlay that’s not really a parlay and just a gathering of other picks we like that we couldn’t fit in above. Mix and match here with what you like here and above (as always).

  • Kenny Pickett Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns vs. Eagles (-138 at FanDuel): Can you imagine the meltdown if the Raiders (+11.5) upset the Eagles at home with Kenny Pickett outplaying Jalen Hurts? But I think Kenny “OneDrive” can throw a touchdown here.
  • Giants -2.5 vs. Commanders (-110): Give me Jaxson Dart at home against a terrible defense and a team that hasn’t won since Week 5 to get his third NFL win. If J.J. McCarthy can throw three touchdowns in a 31-0 win over this team, my guy Dart can get a 3-point win.
  • Panthers ML at Saints (-162 at FanDuel): The Panthers (7-6) lead the NFC South after Tampa Bay’s shocking loss to Atlanta last night. I think they make the most of that one as they just need to win this game and win one of the Tampa games to win the NFC South. The Bucs were upset by these Saints last week as Tyler Shough is figuring things out, so this won’t be easy, but I like the way Carolina is playing right now.
  • Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns vs. Lions (-108 at FanDuel): Stafford is 1-2 against his former team since the 2021 trade, but I think he gets it done at home like in 2021 when he threw 3 touchdowns in a 28-19 victory. The Rams are rolling offensively at home, and the Lions don’t have the healthy defensive backs to contend with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, so I see a 3-touchodwn game for Stafford going into Thursday’s showdown at Seattle. Can also add Rams ML here.
  • Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown vs. Cowboys (+160 at FanDuel): Didn’t get this one to work last week even though McCarthy threw 3 touchdowns. But I think in prime time with CeeDee Lamb on the other side and a Dallas defense that’s allowed a league-high 22 touchdown catches to wide receivers, Jefferson finds a way to score here in prime time.

Scott’s NFL Pick: 5-Leg Parlay (+2566 at FanDuel)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar12/12/2025 - 05:02 pm