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Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 8

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar24/10/2025 - 02:40 pm
(Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)

The NFL has six teams on a bye and eight AFC vs. NFC matchups in Week 8, but we still have good NFL picks for games like Bears vs. Ravens, Titans vs. Colts, Commanders vs. Chiefs, and Aaron Rodgers taking on his former team in the Green Bay Packers.

In recapping our Week 7 picks, things went very well. Our top three picks all hit with the Patriots’ spread, Panthers’ under, and Rashee Rice’s return in Kansas City. The running backs didn’t cooperate in Cleveland, the Jayden Daniels injury messed with our pick in Dallas, and the Chargers sold our +375 parlay by a single point. But at least we had good calls on the Eagles’ first-half spread and Seattle finally covering at home. Alas, I’m still not sure when Stefon Diggs will catch a touchdown in 2025.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Packers at Steelers: Mike Tomlin Specialty with an Assist from Aaron Rodgers

Allow me to let you in on a dirty little secret about the NFL. No, there aren’t a bunch of Terry Rozier’s scheming and shaving points (allegedly). At least I don’t believe that to be the case yet. But you will often see a team go into a 2-game stretch where they come out 1-1, but they lose the game you expected them to win, and they win the game you expected them to lose.

This happens all the time with a player’s stats too. Someone will go off on the defense you thought would slow them down, then they’ll barely have more yards than you or me in a juicy matchup a week later. At the end of the day, they’re hitting their averages over those two games, but it’s the result you didn’t expect each time.

And that’s how the NFL gets you, time after time, as a bettor and predictor of this game.

Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers are the masters of playing up or down to the competition. I’ve been watching it weekly since 2007. Sure, he’ll beat up on Cleveland at home with their rookie quarterback. But you make him a 5.5-point road favorite on a Thursday night against Joe Flacco in Cincinnati, and despite the chance to put a stranglehold on the AFC North, his defense embarrasses itself and they lose the game.

Now, you have people doubting the Steelers just days after acting like they could be the best team in the AFC. Now you see them predicting Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson will come back to win the AFC North, or that the Steelers are in danger of losing their next seven games.

But that’s not going to happen. In fact, I think the Steelers beat Green Bay on Sunday night at home.

The Packers are a 3-point favorite, but we’ve already seen this team lose in Cleveland, tie in Dallas, and struggle in Arizona last week. The Pittsburgh defense will force Jordan Love into some bad interception or turnover in a big moment. Green Bay may even have a season-high 2 giveaways.

Aaron Rodgers will get the ball out quickly to slow down the pass rush from Micah Parsons, and I think he’ll play well even if there’s not as much animosity as he had for the Jets in Week 1 when he tossed four touchdowns in a truer form of revenge game. He may have figured out something with the tight end production last week.

Since 2007, Tomlin covers 70% of spreads as a home underdog and he wins these games outright over 60% of the time. No team has done better than that in that time.

Lose the “small game” to the Bengals and Flacco, come back and beat the team with the best record in the NFC the next week on Sunday night. That’s Tomlin to a tee. With an assist from Rodgers wanting to win what will likely be his only shot at the Packers in his NFL career, my top pick this week is for the Steelers to beat Green Bay.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Steelers ML (+128 at FanDuel)

2. Commanders at Chiefs: Under Eighteen and I Like It

When I saw the news this week that Jayden Daniels is out with an injury for Monday night and the Chiefs would face Marcus Mariota, I had a good play in mind for this matchup.

Since drafting Daniels in 2024, the Commanders have scored at least 18 points in all 27 games (playoffs included). That ties the 2019-21 Saints for the second-longest streak in NFL history. The record is 28 games, and that’s held by two different Kansas City runs. They had a 28-game streak in 2017-19 that included the beginning of the Patrick Mahomes era, and after one off game against the 2019 Colts, they went on another 28-game streak into late 2020.

This means the Commanders could tie the Chiefs’ NFL record here, and they’d be doing it with Marcus Mariota, the quarterback who beat them in the famed “Forward Progress” playoff game where he caught his own deflected pass for a touchdown for the Titans in the 2017 AFC wild card. The loss that led to the Mahomes era in 2018.

Mariota has actually helped keep this streak alive several times, including starts for an injured Daniels, and a couple of games where he had to relieve an injured Daniels, including last week in Dallas.

So, my bright idea was to bet on the Commanders to score under 17.5 points and for Kansas City to end the streak after holding the Lions to 17 points and shutting out the Raiders on Sunday.

But when I looked at the team totals for this game, I could only laugh when the sportsbooks all have the Commanders at O/U 17.5 points. Of course they do. They’re smarter than all of us. The worst part is they have juice on it too with some sportsbooks at -135 on the under.

That disappointed me, but with the way the Chiefs have been playing defense, with the injuries the Commanders have at receiver, and the way the Chiefs usually protect the ball well and don’t give up short fields for the opposing offense, I’m still going to bet on the Chiefs to end the streak.

I’m just going to also add that Mahomes will throw at least 2 touchdowns as he’s been on a tear and this Washington defense shouldn’t stand in his way of another win. But we’ll see if the Chiefs can protect their scoring streak record while getting a little revenge on Mariota for that playoff game years ago.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Patrick Mahomes 2+ Passing Touchdowns & Commanders Under 17.5 Points (+137 at FanDuel)

3. Giants at Eagles: When Will the Eagles Cover a Big Spread This Year?

The Eagles are 5-2 this year but have yet to win a game by more than 7 points. They were an 8-point favorite on the road two weeks ago when they lost 34-17 to the Giants after getting shutout in the second half. You could chalk that up to weird divisional game on the road on a short week.

But the Eagles have had problems all year of playing full games. Even on opening night against Dallas, they only scored a field goal after a strong first half. Last week in Minnesota, they hit all their deep balls but did very little outside of those huge plays. They’re just not very consistent this year.

I wish I had a better reason for this pick, but it just comes down to going against the grain and not trusting a New York team that’s already lost 21-6 in Washington and 26-14 in New Orleans. They gave up 33 points in one quarter in Denver last week, and maybe some of that can carry over here this week on the road.

The Eagles did have an 8-game streak of not winning any games by 8+ points at the end of 2023-24 during their bad slump to end that 2023 season. So, there is some precedent for Nick Sirianni’s team going this long without an 8-point win.

But I’m going to play contrarian and back the Eagles to cover at home. It might literally be an 8-point win instead of a double-digit win, but that’s still okay.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Eagles -7.5 (-102) at FanDuel

4. 3-Leg Teaser: Bills, Ravens, Bengals Unite

Had a few picks I liked from the first three games listed on Sunday, so I decided to make them a 3-leg teaser (6 points):

  • Bills at Panthers – Under 52.5 points (teased from 46.5)
  • Bears at Ravens – Over 43.5 points (teased from 49.5)
  • Jets at Bengals – Bengals -0.5 spread (teased from Bengals -6.5)

You might think Bills-Panthers sets up well for the over to hit with Buffalo being Buffalo, and the Panthers have been scoring well at home all year. They have a backfield that could give Buffalo’s bottom-ranked run defense issues, and Andy Dalton starting for an injured Bryce Young could even help the receivers get the ball more as the veteran has seen everything in this league that Young, who has one 200-yard passing game, hasn’t.

But that’s what the logic says about that game. In the logic-less NFL, what will probably happen is Dalton craps the bed, turns it over after the Bills fixed some things over the bye week, and Allen plays well but maybe not incredible, allowing the under to hit.

Also, since 2018, the Bills have a very low over hit rate in games following a loss. Even since 2023, the over is 3-8 (27.3%) in Buffalo games following a loss, tied for the second-lowest rate in the league. Allen’s also never had a true 3-game losing streak in Buffalo, so I could see that one ending 27-16 or something like that. Either way, I’m teasing the under.

Then with Ravens vs. Bears, it sounds like Lamar Jackson is going to play and that’s why the spread and total are what they are. The Bears are actually the only team to score at least 21 points in every game this season, so credit Ben Johnson for that change. The Ravens are still 32nd in points allowed. But if Jackson is back, he’s going to score his share of points on that Chicago defense. We’ll confidently take the over teased to 43.5 here, but just be sure that Lamar is starting or don’t play this line.

Also, since 2023, the over is 7-1 in Baltimore games following a loss. The opposite of Buffalo.

As for Jets vs. Bengals, I’m not sure it matters at this point if Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields starts. Sure, I think Tyrod gives them a better chance to win, but he’s still bad in the same exact situations Fields is (high-scoring games and game-winning drives). I think Joe Flacco has a solid game and the Bengals get another win at home, so I’m teasing their spread from 6.5 to essentially a ML pick (-0.5).

Scott’s NFL Pick: 3-Leg Teaser (6 Points) – Bills-Panthers Under 52.5 Points & Bears-Ravens Over 43.5 Points & Bengals -0.5 vs. Jets (+140 at FanDuel)

5. Dolphins at Falcons: Running Back Frenzy

The Dolphins say they aren’t making any coaching changes any time soon. We’ll see how truthful that is, but it was really a putrid game by Tua Tagovailoa last week that sunk them. This week, he has to face an Atlanta defense that has yet to allow 160 net passing yards in any game.

Meanwhile, the Miami defense stinks, and the Falcons usually play well at home on offense. That’s why we’re going with both running backs, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, to score touchdowns for Atlanta. It’s something they’ve already done this year at home against Washington and Buffalo.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Anytime Touchdown Scorers – Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier (+262 at FanDuel)

6. Titans at Colts: No. 1 Offense

Let’s try another 4-leg parlay involving the Colts as they look to complete the sweep of the Titans:

  • Daniel Jones Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
  • Jonathan Taylor 1st Half Touchdown Scorer
  • Colts Over 30.5 Points
  • Colts -9.5

These teams already met in Week 3 in Tennessee, a 41-20 win by the Colts. Indianapolis hasn’t been a favorite at this spread this early in the season since 2009, but the Titans are quite bad at football while the Colts have the most efficient offense in the league.

That’s why they could very well score 40 points again, but this time we’re banking on a more even distribution of scoring as Daniel Jones had one touchdown pass and Jonathan Taylor had 3 touchdown runs in Week 3. We’re going with Jones to throw at least two scores here, and we’re ignoring Taylor’s ridiculous touchdown odds (-425 at FanDuel is as high as I’ve ever seen for one player) and spicing it up by having him score one in the first half. The Colts are usually good for a couple of early touchdowns this year.

We’re also going with Colts to score over 30.5 points, which shouldn’t be that hard in this matchup, and an alternate line for the Colts to win by double digits just as 5-of-6 losses for Tennessee have been by double digits this year.

Am I a little nervous that the Titans have yet to allow more than 26 points in any road game this year despite the 1-3 record? Not really. The Colts are simply that good on offense, having already handed the Titans their worst game on defense this year.

But I’ll admit it isn’t my most confident parlay this week. If you wanted an alternate idea, you could get +520 odds at FanDuel for Michael Pittman Jr. to score a touchdown and the Colts win by 1-14 points (Titans +14.5). That way you give the Titans a shot at covering while still picking Pittman to score another touchdown.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Daniel Jones Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Jonathan Taylor 1st Half Touchdown Scorer & Colts Over 30.5 Points & Colts -9.5 (+299 at FanDuel)

7. Week 8 NFL Touchdown Scorer Parlay

Finally, we have a 5-leg parlay for anytime touchdown scorers this Sunday:

  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs. Bears: He’s scored just one this year but he’s second on the team in touches and yards and too good not to score again with Lamar back in a must-win home game.
  • James Cook (Bills) vs. Panthers: Bills get back to basics and feed their best player this year the ball for a touchdown.
  • Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs. Giants: He’s scored in all four games he had at least 70 yards from scrimmage this year, so let’s go with him to end the 2-game scoreless drought as we already have Philly covering the spread.
  • Emeka Egbuka (Bucs) vs. Saints: With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out, the rookie is the man again and the Saints have allowed 14 passing touchdowns to only 6 rushing this year. Look for Baker Mayfield to find his rookie for another score.
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs. Broncos: Tough matchup but of course we’re going to pick Javonte to score in his return to Mile High in what could be a shootout. It’s not a secondary you want to target in tight windows in the red zone. Just run, baby. But yeah, I’d hedge a couple bucks on putting Dak Prescott to score one himself over Javonte here.

If you wanted to really spice it up to over +5000 odds, throw in Stefon Diggs against Cleveland. It’s going to happen eventually this season, and maybe he’s the veteran route runner they’ll need to pull it off against the Browns and that tough run defense. Something inside the 5-yard line in the corner of the end zone.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Parlay – Zay Flowers & James Cook & Saquon Barkley & Emeka Egbuka & Javonte Williams (+1936 at FanDuel)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar24/10/2025 - 02:40 pm