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Super Bowl 60 Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar04/02/2026 - 08:51 am
Sam Darnold

The 2025 NFL season comes down to one game: Super Bowl 60 between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks. In a season that will go down as an era shift with so many coaches on the move after it, maybe it’s no surprise we’re getting the most improbable Super Bowl matchup on record.

Based on preseason odds, the Seahawks were +6000 and the Patriots were +8000 to win the Super Bowl this year. The closest matchup by the odds was 1999 when the Rams were +15000 and the Titans were +3000. This is also just the fifth Super Bowl since the 1970 merger where both teams missed the playoffs the previous year, which has a big impact on those odds.

These aren’t exactly the teams people were expecting to see at Levi’s Stadium, but here we are. It’s also only in the next few seasons where we’ll learn if this was just a one-off to a total outlier of a season, or if this is the start of something big for these teams who are really in the beginning stage of their runs with this being Year 1 for their current coach and quarterback combinations.

But we’ll let the future be the future as this is all about Sunday night and what’s happened this season. It’s not about Super Bowl XLIX either even though Josh McDaniels is still the New England offensive coordinator as he was that night. But he’s not facing the Legion of Boom, and Tom Brady isn’t his quarterback. A whole new ballgame here.

It’s also a historic game on paper as this is actually the first Super Bowl since the merger where both teams rank in the top four in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Granted, the Seahawks (16-3) won the tough NFC West and the Patriots (17-3) have continuously been dragged for facing the easiest regular-season schedule in the 21st century and also getting a very favorable draw in the AFC playoffs to get to this game.

We already detailed last week in the worst Super Bowl teams of all time many of the weaknesses of the Patriots and the way they’re winning with a lot of sacks, fumbles, and not many points in these playoffs. We also told the (mostly true) story of Sam Darnold and the Patriots’ curse on MetLife Stadium coming full circle with Darnold, the California kid, going home to try to rewrite his legacy with a win here as the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP.

We’ll have our betting picks for the Super Bowl on Friday, but today, this is our massive game preview that does come complete with a final score prediction.

Sam Darnold

Super Bowl 60 Game Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots

This Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium in California, the Seattle Seahawks (16-3) will face the New England Patriots (17-3) in Super Bowl 60. We have the game covered from many angles below, leading up to our prediction for the final score.

The Super Bowl Spread and Total

The Super Bowl spread and total have remained incredibly consistent since the lines opened. The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite, and the total is 45.5 points. There’s a little juice towards Seattle and the under.

Here are some betting trends to consider for this matchup:

  • Since 2020, the Super Bowl underdog is 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU.
  • The Seahawks (14-5 ATS) and Patriots (13-6-1 ATS) had the two best spread records in 2025, the first time those teams have met in the Super Bowl since 2017 (Eagles vs. Patriots).
  • Under Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks are a league-best 12-4-1 ATS away from home since 2024.
  • The Seahawks outperformed the spread by an average of +7.9 points, the best in the NFL.
  • The Patriots outperformed the spread by an average of +6.2 points, the second-best mark in the NFL.
  • Super Bowl underdogs are 16-6 ATS (72.7%) since 2002.
  • Since 1997, Super Bowl underdogs of 4+ points are 11-3-1 ATS.
  • Since Mike Vrabel’s 2001 Patriots upset the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, the underdog is 13-10 SU (56.5%).
  • In Super Bowls with a total between 41 and 46 points, the over is 5-2.
  • In the last seven Super Bowls, the under is 5-2.
  • The over is 4-2 in games where the Patriots are underdogs.

Which Quarterback Loses His Nerve: Sam Darnold or Drake Maye?

For the people who watch one NFL game a year (being the Super Bowl), well, they’re not reading this, so forget them. But for casual observers, they’re going to see something different this year as this is only the third Super Bowl since 2001 where both quarterbacks are under 30 and making their first Super Bowl start.

That’s what happens when you have years of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Patrick Mahomes starting these things. Instead, it’s a 28-year-old Sam Darnold and a 23-year-old Drake Maye, who can become the youngest quarterback to win the Super Bowl.

Drake MAye

It’s the closest thing we’ve had to Super Bowl XL (the inverse of LX) 20 yeas ago when Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) became the youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl in a 21-10 win over the Seattle Seahawks, who had Matt Hasselbeck at the peak of his career with a No. 1 seed.

What was notable about that game? Nerves on the biggest stage in sports seemed to get to both quarterbacks, proving you never know exactly how someone’s going to handle the moment until they have to.

That seems pretty relevant this week when Super Bowl 60 could very well be determined by which quarterback handles his nerves the best and doesn’t destroy his team with negative plays.

For Sam Darnold, everyone has been expecting him to implode all season as he tries to rewrite his legacy. He’s yet to turn the ball over in the playoffs, though he was seeing San Francisco and Los Angeles defenses for the third time this season after seeing them as recently as Weeks 16 and 18. That had to help his comfort level on top of the 49ers missing their two best players and the Rams struggling defensively down the stretch.

But Darnold is an interesting case as he really can be the hero of his own story. We laid it out last week in the mostly true story of how the Patriots cursed MetLife Stadium in 2012, causing all future quarterbacks for the Jets and Giants to be cursed:

  • Act One (2018-19): Darnold hits a low point when he’s “seeing ghosts” against the Patriots in a 2019 game.
  • Act Two (2020-25): He reinvents himself with the Vikings and Seahawks in 2024-25 but still has to overcome the Rams in the biggest games of the year.
  • Act Three (Super Bowl 60): The Patriots are the only thing left standing in Darnold’s way from winning the biggest game in the life of a California kid.

As for the young Drake Maye, the playoffs have been a rough ride every week. He’s gone from completing 72.0% of his passes in the regular season to just 55.8% in the playoffs. His passing success rate has also declined from 54.7% to 31.5%, the second-lowest passing success rate for any quarterback to reach the Super Bowl since 1978 (min. 50 passes).

Most of the quarterbacks who had a poor passing success rate in the postseason where they started the Super Bowl did not end up flipping a switch and playing well in the Super Bowl. Of the few who had a respectable effort, they still ended up losing the Super Bowl like Roger Staubach (1978 Cowboys vs. Steelers), Steve McNair (1999 Titans vs. Rams), and Russell Wilson (2014 Seahawks vs. Patriots) all did. One exception was 1987 Doug Williams, who threw four touchdowns in the second quarter against Denver.

Maye was caught on NFL Films during the AFC Championship Game in Denver during the snow noting how hard it was to play that day in a 10-7 win.

The good news about playing in the Super Bowl is the weather shouldn’t be an issue in California. That should be a welcome sight for the Patriots after playing in snowy conditions for parts of their last two games against Houston and Denver.

But despite Patriots fans pushing false propaganda about Maye’s playoff performances – four other quarterbacks already won a Super Bowl paying three top five defenses – the fact is he hasn’t played well, and the Seahawks had the No. 1 scoring defense this year. He’s going to have to step up and show the weather was a bigger factor than we’re considering.

Both quarterbacks have a late-season injury to note, though Darnold’s oblique doesn’t seem to be an issue. But the shoulder injury for Maye, which happened during the game in Denver, is something to monitor. He insists he’s fine, but we’ll see what the practice reports look like this week.

If there’s an area where this shoulder injury could be an issue, it would be on deep ball efficiency for Maye. That was such a strength early on this season for the Patriots, but after posting a ridiculous success rate on 20-yard throws early in the season, Maye has predictably regressed according to data from NFL Pro:

  • Weeks 1-8: 13-of-17 (76.5%) on throws with 20+ air yards
  • Weeks 9-CCG: 15-of-43 (34.9%) on throws with 20+ air yards

It’s actually Darnold who led all quarterbacks (min. 30 passes) on 20+ yard throws, completing 26-of-51 passes (51.0%) including the playoffs where Maye has been 3-of-12. This isn’t a one-year wonder thing for Darnold either, or a case of offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak perfecting play-action calls.

With the Vikings in 2024, Darnold led all quarterbacks with 1,023 yards, 9 touchdowns (tied for most), the highest completion percentage (46.7%), and the highest EPA per dropback (+0.79) on 20+ yard throws. So, deep passing may be an area where the Seahawks have an advantage over the Patriots no matter the weather or injury status of their quarterback based on the way the last few months have gone for these offenses.

But beyond calming their nerves, these quarterbacks both have a big test with these defenses.

Key Statistical Story to Watch Unfold: Sacks vs. Interceptions

Honestly, this does not feel like a complex Super Bowl to frame.

With Milton Williams fortifying the run defense, the Patriots haven’t allowed 90 rushing yards in four straight games, so they should be able to contain Kenneth Walker for the most part. Some of New England’s best rushing this postseason has been scrambles by Drake Maye, so it’s hard to see Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson (2.4 yards per carry in the playoffs) taking over this game against a Seattle run defense that’s No. 3 in yards and No. 1 in yards per carry.

That’s why it could be as simple as which quarterback avoids the negative plays (turnovers and sacks) that end possessions and mess with field position to put the defense in bad spots like we’ve seen in basically all three losses for both teams this year.

Can Seattle’s No. 1 scoring defense force Maye into another rough game with the offensive firepower on the other side to make him pay for his lack of scoring output? The Patriots actually have to face a healthy offense for a change. If Maye is turning the ball over and taking a bunch of sacks, that’s likely not going to end well for him against Seattle.

On the other hand, what if this is the week Sam Darnold turns back into a pumpkin? We just had Groundhog Day, so what if Darnold sees the shadow of a ghost and that triggers six months of asking up until the preseason if you can win a Super Bowl with this guy? Seattle’s only loss in the last 14 games was the one where he threw four interceptions and gave the Rams two short fields for touchdowns.

For teams that finished 14-3, the Seahawks and Patriots didn’t excel in the turnover battle this year. The Seahawks were minus-3 in turnover differential, tied for the second-worst mark for any 14-win team in NFL history. The 2025 Broncos were also minus-3 in turnovers, and they lost that battle 2-0 to the Patriots in the playoffs, albeit with the Jarrett Stidham situation having a huge factor.

But even the 2025 Patriots were only +3 in turnover margin. Their 19 takeaways were the second fewest for any 14-win team in NFL history, though they have produced 8 more takeaways in the postseason.

Which defense produces more splash plays, and what has the bigger impact: Sacks or interceptions?

That’s why this matchup reminds me of Super Bowl 56 between the Bengals and Rams in 2021. You had a young sack merchant quarterback in Joe Burrow who took 51 sacks in the regular season and 19 more in the playoffs (single-season record) for 70 total sacks. He was facing Matthew Stafford, who threw 17 interceptions that season – no quarterback had more.

What happened in that Super Bowl? Stafford had two interceptions in the middle of the game, though the Rams did their best to minimize the damage with the one having arm punt qualities to it (3rd-and-14 just outside of field goal range) and they held the Bengals to a field goal on the second pick. He eventually led a game-winning touchdown drive.

Meanwhile, Burrow took 7 sacks, including two big ones by Aaron Donald on that drive after Stafford’s second pick that only produced a field goal and 20-13 lead. Four more sacks came later to short-circuit a few more drives, then on the game-deciding 4th-and-1 pass, a quick pressure from Donald against Burrow forced a hurried throw and the Rams secured the 23-20 win.

In the end, the sacks were harder to overcome than the picks. We’ll see how that plays out for this one where Maye is the sack merchant with some fumbling issues in the playoffs while Darnold led all quarterbacks in turnovers in the regular season. Yet, they both find themselves in this game because of how their teams have covered up for their mistakes this season:

  • The 2025 Seahawks are 3-1 when they turn the ball over at least 3 times, only losing a 21-19 game to the Rams where Darnold’s four interceptions still had them a long field goal attempt away from a win.
  • Including the playoffs, the Patriots (5-1, .833) and Seahawks (6-3, .667) have the best records in 2025 when turning the ball over multiple times in a game.
  • The Seahawks and Patriots are both 3-1 this season when they don’t force a turnover.
  • Maye has taken 47 sacks in the regular season and 15 more in the playoffs (second most ever), yet he’s the only quarterback to ever win consecutive playoff games (3 in a row) after taking at least 5 sacks.
  • The 2025 Patriots have the single-season record by winning five games with five sacks allowed (playoffs included).

The way the Patriots continue to win in the playoffs despite giving up a handful of sacks every week is historic. It also feels like less of a fluke when you consider they won consecutive games in October and November against the Browns and Falcons despite Maye taking 6 sacks in each game.

This might just be “his thing” as long as the team keeps bailing him out from it costing them games. As always, sacks and turnovers come down to damage control. Avoid the really bad ones (like a pick six or a game-ending turnover like Darnold had against the 49ers and Buccaneers) and make up for them best you can.

The team that does the best at managing the chaotic plays is almost guaranteed to win this game.

Key Matchup: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Christian Gonzalez

One thing the Patriots have almost never had to do this year was play a good team that had its starting quarterback, running back, top three wide receivers, tight end, and offensive tackles all healthy and ready to go.

In the playoffs, they drew the Chargers without their tackles and top two running backs (for all but one touch by an injured Omarion Hampton). The Texans had line injuries, no Nico Collins (concussion), then lost their second-leading receiver (Dalton Schultz) after he played 12 snaps and had a huge catch. Then they drew the Broncos without Bo Nix, their best running back (J.K. Dobbins), and Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant (left game early) were out as two of their best receivers.

But the Seahawks are actually healthy on offense. However, they also run their offense through one player more than most teams of this level ever have. That’s why Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year after he had 119 catches for 1,793 yards – that’s 1,200 more yards than the next closest Seattle player (Cooper Kupp had 593 receiving yards).

Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has done a fantastic job of unleashing JSN in his third year and the first after the team said goodbye to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. JSN has gone from a possession receiver who averaged 11.0 yards per catch to a dominant alpha that averaged 15.1 yards per reception this year. They can get him open in a wide variety of ways, and it hasn’t usually been a problem. Only the Vikings (23) and 49ers (19) held JSN under 72 yards this year, and Seattle still won those games 67-6. They didn’t need to throw much.

In fact, the Seahawks are 10-0 when JSN doesn’t have 105 receiving yards, so simply shutting him down isn’t the way to beat the Seahawks. For one, it’s not likely to happen. Two, they’ve found creative ways to get him open all year, so maybe you just have to concede that he’s going to get his and worry no one else has a good game.

But are the Patriots uniquely qualified to deal with this offense because of cornerback Christian Gonzalez?

Mike Vrabel didn’t coach directly under Bill Belichick, but he learned a lot from him as a player in New England all those years. One of Belichick’s staples was to take away a team’s best receiver and make the other players beat you. He could either do that with a lockdown corner (Ty Law, Asante Samuel, Darrelle Revis), or he could double team a receiver and put his top corner on your No. 2 receiver to try to make both matchups tough to deal with.

With two weeks to prepare for this one, expect Vrabel and his staff to have a lot of looks prepared to deal with JSN, by far the main weapon you need to take away in this offense. Gonzalez could get the assignment to shadow him, though don’t be surprised if they apply the double team often and don’t have him following JSN on every route.

  • On the season, the Patriots have allowed five 100-yard receivers and two of them were tight ends (Dalton Kincaid and Brock Bowers).
  • The most yards against the Patriots in 2025 was 118 by Atlanta’s Drake London.
  • Gonzalez has not allowed more than 89 yards in coverage in any game this season.
  • Gonzalez allowed 53.6% completions and 6.0 yards per target in the regular season.
  • Gonzalez has allowed 40.7% completions and 4.7 yards per target in the postseason.

Gonzalez is not a ball magnet with four career interceptions in 37 games, including a late gift by Jarrett Stidham in the AFC Championship Game, Gonzalez’s first pick this season. But you could see a scenario where Darnold maybe forces a pass under pressure to his best receiver and Gonzalez could have his Super Bowl MVP type of moment for a huge pick, if not a pick-six in this game. Four of Darnold’s picks this year came targeting JSN.

If you’re the Patriots, you should do everything in your power to limit JSN here as the rest of the receiving options on Seattle aren’t that scary. Cooper Kupp has lost a step, AJ Barner is a young tight end who only has 27 yards over the last three games, and Rashid Shaheed usually makes one reception per game since the trade from New Orleans as he has more value on special teams.

Don’t let one receiver beat you. This is going to sound like a crazy stat but it’s true. The only receivers this year to surpass 65 receiving yards in a win over the 2025 Patriots were Jakobi Meyers (97) and Brock Bowers (103) for the Raiders way back in Week 1.

Key Matchup: Mike Macdonald’s Defense vs. New England’s Offensive Line

This might sound crazy, but I think playing the Seahawks in fair conditions is less of a challenge for the Patriots than facing Houston’s top-ranked defense in crappy weather and going to Denver to face that pass rush at Mile High. This might actually come as a relief to that overmatched offensive line with a young tackle like Will Campbell trying to hold up for one more game.

Granted, the Seahawks have the No. 1 scoring defense, but they lack that dominant pass rusher like Will Anderson Jr. or Nik Bonitto, the latter who didn’t even register a sack for Denver against the Patriots at home. In a game like this, sometimes you just need that special talent to take over a game like Von Miller did against Cam Newton a decade ago on Sunday night’s same field, or the rush Aaron Donald led against the 2021 Bengals.

I know it’s sacrilegious to not bow down to Mike Macdonald for having the sharpest, most cutting-edge defensive mind in the game right now. The results speak for themselves. He had the 2023 Ravens as the only triple crown defense since the merger to lead the NFL in points allowed, sacks, and turnovers. They haven’t been as good since he left. He immediately led the Seahawks to a top 10 defense in 2024 after Pete Carroll couldn’t do so for almost a decade, and now the Seahawks are the No. 1 scoring defense and in the Super Bowl in his second year. Pretty good resume for a 38-year-old coach.

But there are enough warts on the resume that I can’t just ignore either. Whether it’s the Ravens or Seahawks, I can point to several big games where the opponent’s scheme or sheer talent outclassed Macdonald’s scheme:

  • The 2022 Ravens blew multiple 17-point leads to the Dolphins and Bills in Macdonald’s first month as defensive coordinator.
  • For being a triple crown defense, the 2023 Ravens didn’t produce a single takeaway in two playoff games, and they let the Chiefs set the tone with two long touchdown drives to start that AFC Championship Game. They also got lucky with a cheap penalty taking away a third touchdown before halftime.
  • The 2024 Seahawks finished with some good metrics, but they were pushed around by the Lions (completed 100% of their passes), 49ers (36 points and 483 yards), Bills (445 yards), and Matt LaFleur’s Packers (30 points on the road).
  • The 2025 Seahawks had a nice year but were shredded at home three times by the Buccaneers (huge Baker Mayfield game without all his weapons) and Rams with Matthew Stafford dominating them twice and still losing largely because of his D/ST.
  • According to NFL Pro, the Seahawks allowed 226 deep passing yards in the 2025 NFC Championship Game, the most in any playoff game in the last 10 seasons. That was after playing almost 40% man coverage, their highest rate in a game this season.

That’s why I think Macdonald does a good job of making his defensive scheme look complex by taking advantage of his players’ versatility, but the lack of elite talent operating his scheme can expose them against the tougher competition.

I said as much when the Seahawks hired him in January 2024:

It always felt like fool’s gold that the 2023 Ravens pulled off that triple crown feat when they didn’t have anywhere near the core of a classic Baltimore defense like the 2006 or 2008 units that had Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata, and Terrell Suggs.

Macdonald was getting a career year out of fourth-year player Nnamdi Madubuike and good performances from veteran journeymen like Kyle Van Noy and Jadeveon Clowney. It didn’t feel like there was much future Hall of Fame potential there outside of young safety Kyle Hamiilton.

I think you can say similar things about this Seattle defense where no one had more than 7.0 sacks. He gets decent production out of vets like Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence (ex-Cowboys). Defensive tackle Byron Murphy stepped up in Year 2 with 7.0 sacks. Corner Devon Witherspoon is versatile but doesn’t get picks and doesn’t have elite coverage metrics (also gave up 136 yards in the NFC Championship Game). Rookie safety Nick Emmanwori is a player to watch on a path to stardom similar to Kyle Hamilton years ago, but he’s not there already.

The roster just doesn’t align with what you expect from a No. 1 defense, which rosters like the Texans and Broncos fit better with their elite pass rushers and studs in the secondary like Patrick Surtain II and Derek Stingley Jr. Doing this well with “less” is a credit to Macdonald, but it also feels like it could be his undoing against the wrong opponent.

Are the Patriots that opponent? It’s hard to say that based on the way this offense has performed in the playoffs. But offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is coaching his 10th Super Bowl and has gone up against the Legion of Boom, a Seattle defense that was dripping with Hall of Fame talent over a decade ago. He’s seen everything in his career, and I think with two weeks to prepare, he can come up with a gameplan to score enough to win this game given the defense plays well.

Maye probably isn’t going to light up the Seahawks deep as they play to specifically limit those plays. They’ve allowed one touchdown of 30-plus yards all year and that was a great YAC play by Puka Nacua in overtime in Week 16. But I think him getting the ball out fast to Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, and using the size of someone like Mack Hollins can work.

Maye is also going to have to run for his life in this game. Seattle allowed 5.03 yards per carry to quarterbacks this year, the fifth highest in the league. Even Stafford had a couple of scrambles against them last time out, and he never runs this year. Maye needs to have a green light to leave everything on the field as his legs have been better than his arm in the playoffs. He needs to do it more on early downs too as he’s often done this year (his 10.7% scramble rate on early downs is higher than his 9.1% rate on third down according to NFL Pro).

Maye’s had great success this year against both zone and man coverage. He’s been as efficient as anyone on 10+ yard throws. He’s been very good on tight-window throws. His track record against good teams is very spotty, but if he uses his legs and his line limits quick pressures against a defense that doesn’t love to blitz, I think he can score enough to win this one assuming it’s not a shootout.

Just make fewer mistakes than Darnold.

What If It’s a Close Game?

Nineteen of the last 22 Super Bowls have been within one score in the fourth quarter. The 2025 NFL postseason has also set a record for most fourth-quarter lead changes with 14, but it should be noted that none of the five games involving the Seahawks or Patriots had any fourth-quarter lead changes.

In fact, there wasn’t a single point scored in the fourth quarter of the AFC and NFC Championship Games, which is very unusual for games decided by 3-4 points. We’ve also seen some duds on Super Sunday in the last decade, including a 13-3 Super Bowl between the 2018 Patriots and Rams that had a huge total, and the Chiefs have been blown out twice when their offensive line was a joke against the 2020 Buccaneers (31-9) and 2024 Eagles (40-22). Seattle’s only Super Bowl win, a 43-8 thrashing of the 2013 Broncos, was also a rout.

So, you can’t always expect a good game from the Super Bowl, and we’ve been really spoiled in the 21st century that it usually has been competitive and close at the end.

But if it is a close game, here are some stats to know for these teams:

  • The 2025 Seahawks are 4-3 at game-winning drive opportunities, 6-3 in close games, 3 saves, and 2 blown leads.
  • The 2025 Patriots are 2-3 at game-winning drive opportunities, 9-3 in close games, 9 saves (league high), 1 blown lead.
  • Sam Darnold is 8-20 (.286) at 4QC opportunities and 14-20 (.412) at game-winning drive opportunities in his career.
  • Drake Maye is 1-7 (.125) at 4QC opportunities and 2-7 (.222) at game-winning drive opportunities in his career.

Darnold has led nine game-winning drives over the last two seasons, so the Seahawks have the edge here as Maye has only led the team back in the fourth quarter once in his career, and that was a predictable outcome against the Ravens, the Kings of Blowing Leads.

But one key difference here is the Seahawks only had 3 saves, meaning they rarely were asked to even defend a one-score lead in the fourth quarter. The Patriots had 10 such games and were 9-1 at holding the lead, so they’re definitely one of the best teams we’ve seen for a single season closing games out on defense.

Given the matchups between these defenses and these quarterbacks, there is a good chance this is a Super Bowl where the team leading after three quarters wins the game. You don’t want to see your quarterback trying to mount a late game-winning drive in this one.

Fraud Alert Rating on Super Bowl 60

Last postseason, I introduced Fraud Alert Rating (FAR), a metric that analyzes teams by strength of schedule, turnover differential, and starting field position to figure out which teams are maybe not as good as their record or some stats suggest.

It had some better predictive value for playoff games than other metrics like SRS, DVOA, and higher point differential did. For predicting Super Bowls since 2002, you could have gone 13-9 (59.1%) just by using which team had the higher FAR and was the bigger fraud.

Unfortunately, it didn’t work out for Super Bowl 59 between the Chiefs and Eagles. The Chiefs had a FAR that was 4.54 points lower than the Eagles, the fourth-largest differential in a Super Bowl since 2002. In the eight games where the gap in FAR was bigger than 3.0 points, the team with the lower FAR was 6-2, a pretty good win rate.

Of course, the Eagles blew out the Chiefs in a game that was basically decided at halftime. However, to the metric’s credit, we did point out that three of the biggest wins for the team with the higher FAR in the Super Bowl were blowouts (2002 Bucs vs. Raiders, 2013 Seahawks vs. Broncos, and 2020 Bucs vs. Chiefs). Sure enough, the Eagles added to that list.

This year, we have another very similar gap in FAR with the Patriots (+3.07) ranked 4.48 points ahead of the Seahawks (-1.41), who had the lowest FAR in the 2025 playoff field while the Patriots were only behind the Bears (+4.52) and Jaguars (+3.15). The Jaguars lost their first playoff game at home, and the Bears needed a 15-point comeback in the fourth quarter against Green Bay to avoid the same fate.

New England’s historically easy schedule, which doesn’t factor in the breaks they’ve had in the postseason too, is the main culprit for its high FAR. The Patriots have the eighth-highest FAR of the 48 Super Bowl teams since 2002 while the 2025 Seahawks are the third-lowest FAR on that list.

Teams with a FAR under -1.0 are 5-0 in the Super Bowl and 12-6 when it’s +1.0 or smaller. Meanwhile, teams with a FAR above +3.0 are 5-3.

When there is a 3-point gap or greater between the teams, the team with the lower FAR (Seahawks this year) are 6-3 in the Super Bowl. But as we saw last year with the Eagles vs. Chiefs, that didn’t matter. But if it’s usually a blowout ending for the team with the higher FAR, does that really jive with this matchup when Seattle’s lost three games by a combined 9 points and has faced the tougher schedule all year?

Even when Darnold threw four interceptions against the Rams on the road, the Seahawks lost that game 21-19 after a long missed field goal. If someone’s getting blown out in this game, it’s more likely New England, so maybe FAR will get back in the winning column this Super Bowl.

Finally, let’s consider this data on the 37 playoff games since 2002 where the spread was 4-5 points:

  • Underdogs of 4-5 points are 4-9 (30.8%) when their FAR is higher than their opponent.
  • Underdogs of 4-5 points are 6-2 (75.0%) when their FAR is at least 3 points lower than their opponent (lower fraud).
  • Underdogs of 4-5 points are 9-20 (31.0%) when their FAR gap is higher than -3.00 from their opponent.

Underdogs of this size are going to lose this game about 60% of the time, but the odds are even worse when you have this much higher of a FAR like the Patriots do in this matchup.

But maybe everyone is a fraud this season. We’ll find out Sunday night.

A Brief Word About the Super Bowl Officials

We can’t seem to have a big NFL game without people talking about the officials, so let’s just cover that base quickly before our final prediction. Head official Shawn Smith is getting his first Super Bowl assignment this year. It’s a tricky thing to compare to the rest of the season since the NFL likes to put together an “All-Star team” of officials for the big game, so Smith isn’t paired up with his usual team of officials.

With that said, here are some trends to point out on the officiating side for Smith, the Patriots and Seahawks in 2025:

  • Both teams are among the least penalized with the Seahawks (100) and Patriots (99) ranking 25th and 26th in penalties in the regular season.
  • In games officiated by Shawn Smith in 2025, the away team was called for 29 more penalties than the home team, the largest split in favor of the home team in any crew this year.
  • The Patriots are considered the home team in this matchup.
  • The Patriots have been flagged 12 times for defensive pass interference (average NFL team: 9.0), including twice by Smith’s crew in the AFC divisional round against Houston.
  • The Seahawks have been flagged a league-worst 5 times for taunting penalties – the Eagles (3) are the only other team with more than two such calls this year. Here’s looking at you, Riq Woolen, who has 3 of them (no other player has more than one all season).
  • The Super Bowl is the first Seattle game that Smith will call this season; he called New England’s 33-27 win at Miami (Week 2) and their 28-16 win over Houston in the divisional round.

The only other thing worth mentioning is that Seattle and New England were both called 21 times for offensive holding this season, a perfectly average number of calls for that costly penalty. But as we often see in the playoffs, those flags for offensive holding decrease with just 10 called in three playoff rounds (12 games). That’s 0.83 penalties per game compared to 2.47 penalties per game in the regular season, meaning a decline of almost 67% in the postseason.

What does that mean for Super Bowl 60? Expect offensive holding to happen, barely get called, and the only thing that will happen is people will post clips and complain on Twitter.

Like they do with every Super Bowl.

Super Bowl 60 Final Prediction

The moment of truth. I will start by saying the under 45.5 is my favorite bet as I expect both offenses to come out shaky and conservative. McDaniels’ offenses notoriously failed to score a touchdown in the first quarter of all nine Super Bowls started by Tom Brady.

A lot of the biggest bets have been coming in on the Patriots, the underdog. A lot of the predictions seem to favor the Seahawks, the 4.5-point favorite. Neither of those things sound uncommon given the odds. But it does seem like a lot of people are talking about the Seahawks blowing the Patriots out.

Maybe that happens even if the Patriots haven’t lost by more than 7 points all season. But I also think people fell for the Seattle team that was up 28-0 on Sunday Night Football against Washington in Week 9, then went up 35-0 in the blink of an eye thanks to two fumble return touchdowns against Arizona a week later.

But those games were three months ago compared to Sunday night, and the Seahawks haven’t been as dominant since.

  • They did lose to the Rams after Darnold threw four interceptions, and they had a tough time with that offense at home in the two later matchups.
  • They were down in the final minute as a 14-point home favorite against a quarterback (Philip Rivers) who ended his 5-year retirement on his 44th birthday that week for the Colts.
  • They only beat the Titans by 6 points.
  • They beat Minnesota 26-0, but even that game was 3-0 going to halftime before Max Brosmer threw a horrific pick-six.
  • They beat the Falcons 37-9 in a game that was tied 6-6 at halftime before a kickoff return and some turnovers blew up the score.
  • They won 27-10 in Carolina despite the offense not having a single touchdown drive that was longer than 30 yards.

If you don’t feed this team short fields, you stand a real chance to hang with them. The Patriots played poor offense in Denver, but one thing they didn’t do was turn it over and give Jarrett Stidham any short fields. If I’m the Patriots, I feel better about turnover regression here as hopefully they got some turnovers out of their system against the Chargers and Texans while the Seahawks are tempting fate without one in their last three games, including the Week 18 game in San Francisco that got them the No. 1 seed. How often can you go four straight high-pressure games without a giveaway? Eh.

Seattle is great with return touchdowns and special teams, but guess what? So are the Patriots. The Seahawks had seven return touchdowns and the Patriots have six this year. Maybe one of those can make the difference in this game, and we are still waiting for the first punt return touchdown (Marcus Jones?) in Super Bowl history.

Like I explained earlier, between the combination of better weather, fewer expected blitzes, and the lack of a dominant pass rusher, Maye and his offensive line might have an easier time with Seattle than they did the Broncos and Texans.

And while people are citing dubious motivation factors like Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft getting snubbed for the Hall of Fame, I do think there’s something to the Patriots having two weeks to prepare for another new opponent after taking out three in a row in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have spent all but one of the last six weeks preparing for NFC West rematches, which had to make Darnold feel more comfortable about seeing the same defenses, in a weakened state, for a second or third time.

You could even see it in the results as Darnold went from four picks to two picks to no turnovers in the three games against the Rams this season. The Patriots have been playing weak competition to bolster their defensive stats, which is why they’re not in the same stratosphere as Super Bowl-winning defenses like the 2000 Ravens or 2002 Buccaneers or 2015 Broncos even if the numbers suggest they belong. The kind of defenses that can power you through a run like this.

But even against the weakest of schedules, it’s hard to play defense this technically sound this consistently like the Patriots have. They have the fewest missed tackles (71; 39 fewer than Seattle) this season. They’ve held their last 19 opponents under 375 yards after giving up their most yards to the Raiders in Week 1. They’ve allowed more than 24 points on defense just once all year to Buffalo. Miami only got to 27 in Week 2 on a return touchdown on special teams.

As long as the Patriots don’t give up more than 24 points here, they have a fantastic chance to win this game. And I think that’s what happens, because I still don’t trust Darnold not to revert to factory settings and make some boneheaded throws that get picked because they take away his running game and blanket JSN as well as anybody has all year.

It’s the Super Bowl. You had two weeks to come up with every different look you can think of for an unfamiliar opponent. If that means blitzing Christian Gonzalez at him instead of having him cover JSN, then so be it. Maybe it results in a forced throw and pick that changes the game too. This is the kind of game where the throw you don’t make and take the sack instead could be the play that saves you instead of forcing a throw.

More than any franchise, the Patriots know you can win a Super Bowl without playing great offensively. It comes down to timely defense and special teams too. That’s why I’m taking the veteran coaching staff that knows what it takes to get through all 60 minutes of one of these games. Backing the team with the more mobile quarterback who won’t try to force the ball to any one receiver also doesn’t seem like a bad idea in this matchup.

Original Super Bowl 60 Prediction: Patriots 20, Seahawks 17

Then after some careful consideration…

Final Super Bowl 60 Prediction: Patriots 23, Seahawks 20

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar04/02/2026 - 08:51 am