With the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers starting 0-2 at home in the semifinals, the 2025 NBA playoffs are seemingly making up for a decade of rough postseasons that have been filled with predictable (chalk) outcomes, too many injuries to star players, and not enough memorable moments that go down in lore and add to our love of this beautiful game.
2021 may have come the closest to delivering when Kevin Durant’s foot was just on the line in Game 7 against the Bucks, who survived and eventually came back from a 2-0 deficit to beat the Suns in the NBA Finals with a 50 piece from Giannis Antetokounmpo. That year had some moments.
But other than that, it’s hard to say the NBA has delivered an impressive postseason since the Warriors blew a 3-1 lead to LeBron James and the Cavaliers in 2016, which was almost a full decade ago.
Well, we’re getting a ton of thrills this year from Aaron Gordon’s buzzer-beating dunk against the Clippers to the wild comebacks from the Pacers and Knicks to Gordon sinking a 3 to shock the Thunder in Game 1.
But it’s the semifinals that have really gotten off to such an insane start as the road teams started a perfect 6-0 before the Thunder may have restored some order with a 149-106 domination of the Nuggets last night in Game 2 to even the series.
But with Boston’s stunning collapse for the second time this week, the Celtics’ repeat has its worst share of the odds all year after being the favorites since the preseason. Here are the latest odds to win the 2025 NBA Finals from FanDuel:
- Oklahoma City Thunder (+125)
- Boston Celtics (+350)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (+850)
- New York Knicks (+1000)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (+1000)
- Indiana Pacers (+1300; opened at +8000 this postseason)
- Denver Nuggets (+1400)
- Golden State Warriors (+3000)
Let’s look at how historic this postseason has been in the semifinals, and why things are shaping up nicely for the Thunder to still make it a predictable ending with a championship win after they had one of the best regular seasons ever.
But is anything really a safe play this postseason? This isn’t the NBA we are used to seeing this time of year.
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NBA 2025 Semifinals Making History
With four series underway, we are used to seeing the best teams in the league start well in the semifinals with two games at home. But this year has changed that entirely with an unprecedented run of wins by the road teams:
- For the first time since the league expanded to more than 14 teams in 1971, all four road teams won Game 1 of the semifinals.
- Home teams started 0-6 in the semifinals round, the worst record ever.
- The Knicks are the first team in NBA history to win consecutive playoff games after trailing by 20 points.
- Not only are the Celtics the first team to blow a 20-point lead in consecutive playoff games, but they’re the only team in the play-by-play era (since 1997) to blow multiple 20-point leads in the same postseason.
- Since 1997-98, teams were 3-1,640 when trailing by 7+ points in the final minute of a playoff game. The Pacers have two of those wins this postseason (source: ESPN Research).
If you go back to 2024 when the Pacers and Timberwolves won a pair of road Game 7s against the Knicks and Nuggets, there were eight straight wins by the road teams in the semifinals before the Thunder beat Denver on Wednesday night. Excluding the 2020 bubble where everyone was stuck in the same venue without crowds, that is easily the longest streak in NBA history of road teams winning in the semifinals.
Let’s keep in mind there have been times when the home team won 16 semifinals games in a row (1992-93) or 19-of-20 in 2008. It’s usually a round where the top seeds fare very well.
We are witnessing history, and it’s been rather glorious and shocking to see.
A crazy start does not guarantee this will keep up the rest of the playoffs or even the rest of these series. But with 2-0 leads in the East, chances are one of those favorites all year is not going to reach the Conference Finals after all.
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks (New York Leads 2-0)
Current series odds: Celtics (-106) | Knicks (-110)
No doubt the most perplexing series this round, the Celtics have blown a pair of 20-point leads in the second half to the Knicks. We know the Celtics live and die by the 3-point shot. It led to a championship last year, but on those nights where Boston is off, it can look bad for this team when the shots keep missing left and right.
Well, they are bricking them at a historic rate in this series as Boston was 15-of-60 from 3 in Game 1; the 45 misses representing a single-game NBA playoff record. They weren’t much better in Game 2 as they shot the same 25% but with less volume (10-of-40).
This makes the Celtics the 146th team in NBA history to shoot at least 100 3s in a 2-game span, but they have the fewest makes (25) and worst 3P% (.250) of any of the 146 teams on that list.
It’s been a team effort too as everyone from Jayson Tatum to Jaylen Brown to Derrick White has been cold in this series. You like to think regression to the mean will hit and the Celtics will be fine. But 0-2 is a big hole to dig against a good team like the Knicks.
New York is able to hang in there because it has a reliable closer like Jalen Brunson. But he also has help this year as Mikal Bridges has been incredible on defense. In fact, he’s somehow closed out both wins by stealing the ball from Tatum and Brown.
Boston faces a must-win Game 3 at Madison Square Garden this Saturday as no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit. That building should be more electric than usual with Boston on the ropes here.
But if the Knicks are going to finish off this series, they’ll need to shoot better and start games with more urgency. It’s not a good sign they’re falling behind by 20 to a team that is shooting poorly from deep.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers (Indiana Leads 2-0)
Current series odds: Cavlaiers (+164) | Pacers (-198)
Another wild series, maybe it was a bad sign that the Cavaliers were 1-3 against the Pacers in the regular season this year. But most felt Game 1 was a little flukish as the Pacers shot very well (.530 FG% and 19-of-36 from 3P) while Donovan Mitchell was 1-of-11 from 3. Rebounds were even and the Pacers had 17 turnovers to 8 for Cleveland. The Cavs just needed more shots to fall while expecting Indiana to cool down.
For most of Game 2, the plan was working. Mitchell scored 48 points even though his long shot was still bricking (1-of-7). The Cavs led by 7 points late before Indiana rallied, keyed by a huge offensive rebound on a missed free throw with an emphatic dunk by Aaron Nesmith to keep the game alive.
Throw in a turnover and another offensive board on a missed free throw, and Tyrese Haliburton showed he’s been making clutch shots all year with a dagger 3 for the shocking 120-119 win.
Oddsmakers give the Cavaliers worse odds to come back than they do the Celtics. That makes some sense since the Pacers can score at an elite level and didn’t need a 20-point comeback in both games. Just once.
But the Cavaliers have to be feeling it as they are 1-5 against this team this season. If they can’t close at home, how will they fare against an Indiana crowd that is fully behind this team again?
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors (Golden State Leads 1-0)
Current series odds: Timberwolves (-205) | Warriors (+172)
We’ve only seen one game between these teams, but naturally it led to the road team (Warriors) winning decisively. But the big Game 1 news was Steph Curry leaving in the second quarter with a hamstring strain (Grade 1). He’ll reportedly be out for a week before revaluation.
That could mean Curry will miss Games 2-4 of this series. With the way hamstring injuries go, even if he comes back in a week, he’s at a serious risk for aggravating it and missing more time.
However, despite the oddsmakers going heavily towards the Timberwolves in a 1-0 deficit after the Curry news, there’s still good reasons to like Golden State to win this series without Curry.
First, they got Jimmy Butler for this exact reason. Butler has helped Miami to the Finals twice in his career, and “Playoff Jimmy” is an earned reputation. The Warriors were without Curry for most of Game 1 and still put the clamps on Anthony Edwards, who missed his first 10 shots, and shut down that offense. Keep in mind they humiliated Houston’s offense for a half in Game 7 when Curry had just 3 points at halftime.
The Warriors are actually 6-0 in playoff games where Curry plays fewer than 23 minutes, and 9-3 when he doesn’t play at all.
Granted, the Warriors aren’t built like they were in 2016 and 2018 when that 9-3 record was compiled. But this team has enough veterans who know how to win, and you can never discount the random hot shooting game from Buddy Hield, Brandin Podziemski, or even Draymond Green.
But the key is Butler playing like the superstar he is and leading the team in Curry’s absence. They have enough to get past the inconsistent Timberwolves, but they have no shot without Curry against the likes of Denver or Oklahoma City.
I’d say I expect Minnesota to even the series in Game 2 with Curry out, but crazier things have happened this postseason.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets (Series Tied 1-1)
Current series odds: Thunder (-520) | Nuggets (+400)
Oddsmakers still love the Thunder even after that Game 1 snafu where they showed exactly how to botch the “foul up 3” strategy by doing it way too fast and when Denver was out of timeouts with Nikola Jokic on the bench. Throw in Chet Holmgren missing a pair of free throws, and Game 1 felt like a real anomaly you won’t have to worry about this team repeating.
Then there’s the blowout win in Game 2 that was basically never competitive with a 38-16 lead in the opening quarter. That’s what Oklahoma City has done all season to reach the largest margin of victory per game in NBA history. They also won a playoff game by 51 points against Memphis in the opening round.
Denver needs Jokic to play lights out like he did in Game 1 when he had 42 points, 22 rebounds, and 6 assists, the only time in NBA history a player posted that stat line in the playoffs.
But Denver doesn’t defend anything like the Thunder, and that’s what makes this a mismatch. Jokic may steal another game at home to keep this series going, but it would be a surprise if the Thunder lost this one.
Why the Thunder Still Look Like NBA Championship Material
This NBA postseason has been downright fascinating, but two of the most dominant wins belong to the Thunder, which has been their thing all year. They also showed they could win the close ones with a record-setting comeback against Memphis in Game 3 (26 points is the largest halftime deficit overcame in a playoff game), and they closed the Grizzlies out in Game 4, a 117-115 win.
This team is young and hungry with the best defense in the league, and SGA is getting competent scoring from Jalen Williams (21.0 points per game this postseason). They may not have that second player you can rely on in crunch time, but you have to keep the games close to even get to that part with OKC.
With Boston and Cleveland stumbling so badly here, you have to figure it’s possible both of those teams are cooked. In NBA history, road teams leading 2-0 in the semifinals are 17-0 for the series (38-5 for all rounds). Even if one of those teams blows their lead, Boston and Cleveland are showing enough question marks to where the Thunder should be favorites in June.
They’ve played like the best team all year and they are doing it again in the playoffs. Save for one blasphemous moment of fouling too quickly and missing some free throws, this team is almost undefeated this postseason.
But I’m all for chaos too. Make it Pacers vs. Timberwolves in the Finals. Get wild. All I know is Thunder vs. Celtics was chalk from October through this past weekend, but now that no longer looks to be the case.
Good. The NBA, which has struggled with its ratings, badly needed a stellar postseason filled with dramatic finishes and memorable plays. We’re getting that so far in spades.
Let’s hope it continues.
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