2025 NFL Award Races: Why Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen Is Not the Game to Decide MVP, and the Daniel Jones Double Standard
We are almost at the midpoint of the 2025 NFL regular season, and the award races are heating up as the calendar flips to November. We made our first-quarter picks a month ago, and I can say a month later we’re still riding with 4-of-7 picks.
But Week 9 figures to be a big one for award races with the Colts taking the NFL’s best record and No. 1 offense into Pittsburgh followed by the annual Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen matchup in Buffalo with many implications for the season.
Let’s break down the seven awards with a look at the current odds, what impact upcoming games will have, and a detailed look at that MVP race.
Table of Contents
NFL Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award
- Preseason pick: Joe Burrow (+600)
- First quarter pick: Patrick Mahomes (+650)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Patrick Mahomes (+150)
- Josh Allen (+450)
- Drake Maye (+550)
- Matthew Stafford (+1000)
- Jordan Love (+1000)
- Jonathan Taylor (+1400)
- Jared Goff (+1600)
- Baker Mayfield (+2000)
- Jalen Hurts (+2000)
- Daniel Jones (+2000)
- Justin Herbert (+2500)
- Sam Darnold (+4000)
What’s changed in the last month? Patrick Mahomes has replaced Josh Allen as the favorite to win his third MVP. Drake Maye has shot up to third after not even being in the discussion a month ago thanks to his efficiency and New England’s winning streak. Baker Mayfield was flirting with a run before the last couple of games see him tied with Jalen Hurts, who runs one of the most inconsistent offenses in 2025.
But maybe the biggest development has come in the last few days as running back Jonathan Taylor (+1400) has shot up to sixth in odds, ranking ahead of Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (+2000).
That leads to our first point of contention with the direction this MVP race is heading.
Obvious Double Standard on MVP Running Backs vs. Quarterbacks
Most people acknowledge the NFL MVP is a quarterback award as only one non-quarterback (Adrian Peterson in 2012) has won the award since 2007. Even he should have lost it to Peyton Manning, who turned Denver into a No .1 seed and passing juggernaut after four neck surgeries.
But most NFL analysts and experts of sound mind know that quarterbacks are inherently more valuable than running backs, and running backs are one of the easiest positions to replace in this game.
However, this logic seems to get tossed out the window if it’s a quarterback without a solid reputation or track record. Then it’s always someone else’s credit for why he’s having an epic season.
In 2023, Brock Purdy (49ers) led the NFL in most passing efficiency metrics, which would normally garner MVP attention for a No. 1 seed. Yet, Purdy finished fourth in MVP voting behind running back and teammate Christian McCaffrey, who had a nice season but nothing we haven’t seen before. Guess that’s what happens when you’re Mr. Irrelevant and you toss four interceptions against the Ravens on Christmas night.
Last year, some people tried to hold the arrival of Derrick Henry in Baltimore against Lamar Jackson, but he still was named first-team All-Pro as he had won two MVP awards without Henry. But Lamar was better even if Henry’s presence did help him to his best passing season ever.
This does come back to clout, or how popular you are with the media and fans.
People didn’t want to give Sam Darnold full credit for his great 2024 season in Minnesota because “he had Justin Jefferson” to throw the ball to. Yet, Darnold is in Seattle this year and he’s throwing the ball incredibly well to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is posting Jefferson-esque numbers (if not better). Maybe, just maybe, Darnold should get some credit for this just as Jared Goff proved in Detroit it wasn’t actually Sean McVay completing those passes for him with the Rams.
There’s a reason quarterbacks like Darnold, Jones, Mayfield, and Goff were top six draft picks in this league. That’s at least different than the Purdy path from Mr. Irrelevant or what Case Keenum did on the 2017 Vikings for one year.
These double standards for the division of credit when an offense is having success have been going on for years, and it all comes back to how much people like or don’t like the player involved.
It wasn’t always this bad though. In the 1990s, people rightfully acknowledged that Emmitt Smith’s four rushing titles were a driving factor over the low-volume, solid efficiency passing from Troy Aikman in Dallas. Most understood that Terrell Davis became the focal point of the Denver offense over an older John Elway when he won his two Super Bowl titles in 1997-98.
But in this era of NFL coverage with social media? Good luck with logic surviving. Right now, we are experiencing one of the most obvious double standards you’ll ever see. The official NFL account on X tweeted on Tuesday this graphic that listed Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, Josh Allen, and Jonathan Taylor as the MVP candidates this year.
Mahomes and Maye? That’s fine. They’re No. 1 and No. 3 in the current MVP odds. But how on earth is Josh Allen the Buffalo MVP candidate instead of running back James Cook, and how is Taylor the MVP in Indy over quarterback Daniel Jones?
Look at the metrics that usually decide these awards:
- Josh Allen: 13th in QBR, 9th in passing success rate, 9th in ANY/A
- Daniel Jones: 2nd in QBR, 1st in passing success rate, 3rd in ANY/A
- James Cook: 2nd in rushing yards, 1st in rushing success rate, 1st in yards per carry, 4th in rushing touchdowns, 4th in total touchdowns, 4th in yards from scrimmage
- Jonathan Taylor: 1st in rushing yards, 7th in rushing success rate, 1st in total touchdowns, 1st in yards from scrimmage
- Colts: 8 games, 7-1 record, No. 1 offense in yards and points per drive
- Bills: 7 games, 5-2 record, No. 4 in yards per drive, No. 3 in points per drive
The Bills already had a bye week, so Cook actually edges out Taylor in rushing yards per game while leading the NFL in yards per carry and success rate. Cook also won the September AFC Offensive Player of the Month award over these players, Mahomes, Maye, etc.
It’s not hard at all to conclude that Cook has been Buffalo’s best player on offense this season. Yet, why is it so hard to admit this version of “Indiana Jones” is driving this unexpected effort for the Colts? Jones was the odds-on favorite for MVP on the Colts until the last 24 hours after outcries of “Taylor for MVP” in the mainstream media have pushed Taylor’s odds above Jones as he now sits in sixth place.
That’s a lot of agenda pushing for a guy who has scored 6-of-14 touchdowns against the Titans, the worst team in the NFL right now.
Yet, what has actually changed in Indianapolis this year? They improved the offensive line, they drafted tight end Tyler Warren, but the big move was acquiring and choosing to start Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson.
This is Taylor’s sixth season in Indy, they haven’t made the playoffs since his 2020 rookie year, and the offense has never been this historically good. In 2021, Taylor led the league in yards and touchdowns, and the Colts were only 9-8 because they had Carson Wentz at quarterback. This is the sixth offense coach Shane Steichen has overseen, and he’s never come close to these results for half a season.
Jones is not just feasting on short fields (like Allen did last year). He’s not struggling to throw for 200 yards while watching his running back go over 200 (like Allen on Sunday against Carolina).
In fact, Adonai Mitchell letting go of the ball before he broke the plane of the end zone against the Rams is the only reason Jones hasn’t started this season with eight straight games of 200 passing yards, a passing touchdown, and 100+ passer rating – something only Tom Brady (2007) and Aaron Rodgers (2011) have done in MVP seasons.
Instead, Jones will have to settle for doing that in 7-of-8 games, joining 1984 Dan Marno (MVP), 2018 Philip Rivers, and 2020 Aaron Rodgers (MVP). If any respected quarterback is doing what Jones is doing this year, he’s crushing the MVP odds right now. But when it’s Danny Dimes, they’ll do anything to promote someone else. Eight games in, it’s hard to ignore what he’s been doing every week. Quarterbacks don’t just fluke their way into an eight-game run like this.
I know all this praise is just setting him up for a couple of strip-sack fumbles this Sunday in Pittsburgh. But if we’re being completely honest and fair with our judgments on this game, Jones is the MVP candidate in Indy, Taylor is the OPOY leader, and Allen is currently not having an MVP-caliber season.
You have to call out and reject these ridiculous double standards. Jones is having a historic season at the most important position. That’s what MVP should be about.
The 2025 NFL Games That Will Decide the MVP Award
Whether we’re talking awards, the playoff races, or the Super Bowl LX odds, we can’t ignore some of the huge inequalities in schedules in the 2025 season.
While Chiefs vs. Bills is usually a huge AFC game that could determine everything from MVP to the No. 1 seed, it’s lost some luster this week as it’s probably not even the biggest AFC game in November. That would be Chiefs vs. Colts in Week 12. The fact is the Chiefs and Bills could possibly lose their divisions this year given what the Patriots have as a schedule, a win in hand over Buffalo, and the Broncos and Chargers are still technically ahead of Kansas City in the AFC West.
Is Sunday in Buffalo important? Of course, but it may not actually be the AFC Championship Game preview we thought it’d be this year. You can also blame that on the schedule as the Patriots have been gifted a cakewalk while the Chiefs are still currently scheduled to face 9 games against teams who are currently top 10 in the odds to win Super Bowl LX. They’ve already played four of those games, going 2-2 against the Chargers, Eagles, Ravens, and Lions.
You can’t possibly question the Colts’ schedule without first crucifying the Patriots and Bills for what they got in that department.
Here are the games coming up in November that will have a huge impact on the MVP race (among other things):
- Week 9: Chiefs at Bills
- Week 10: Patriots at Buccaneers
- Week 10: Eagles at Packers (MNF)
- Week 11: Chiefs at Broncos
- Week 12: Colts at Chiefs
- Week 13: Packers at Lions (Thanksgiving)
- Week 13: Chiefs at Cowboys (Thanksgiving)
I put the two in bold that could very well determine the No. 1 seeds this year. This season is unique in that there seem to be more big matchups in November than any other month as we had Eagles-Packers and Chiefs-Bills circled since May. Little did we expect Week 12’s Colts at Chiefs game might be the biggest of them all if these teams keep winning, and the Colts actually have their bye week before it.
Many big games are coming up, and I may wait until after the Thanksgiving week to do the next update on these awards going into the home stretch of the season.
I quickly wanted to share some information on the concept of head-to-head matchups and if they have any impact on the MVP that year. First, most MVP votes aren’t close, so 2024 (Allen 27, Lamar 23) was an outlier. But in the few cases in the salary-cap era where it was close between two quarterbacks, the regular-season games didn’t seem to really factor into the vote:
- 2024: Josh Allen won MVP despite losing to Lamar Jackson in a 35-10 game that Derrick Henry was the star for.
- 2003: Peyton Manning and Steve McNair tied for MVP despite Manning’s Colts sweeping McNair’s Titans 2-0 to win the AFC South.
- 2002: Oakland’s Rich Gannon won MVP with eight more votes than third-place finisher Steve McNair, who lost a 52-25 game to the Raiders in Week 4.
This is just another reason why it’s a bit factious to say the winner of Bills vs. Chiefs this Sunday is the MVP front-runner. Sure, maybe if that quarterback plays great, but if James Cook is the star for Buffalo again, then what exactly are we doing here with this award?
Anyways, I picked Mahomes a month ago and I see no reason to change it. He’s been playing great football this season and they have their full arsenal of receivers for a change. He’s got the pedigree to get it done, he plays in the high-profile games to create MVP moments, and maybe we’ll even reach the clarity down the road that the Colts have two MVP candidates that take away from each other’s value this season.
But I wouldn’t hold my breath on that last part as this thing is already getting nutty even before most of the big games have been played.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL MVP Award – Patrick Mahomes (+150 at FanDuel)
NFL Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) Award
- Preseason pick: Bijan Robinson (+1400)
- First quarter pick: Bijan Robinson (+550)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Jonathan Taylor (-250)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+600)
- Christian McCaffrey (+1400)
- Puka Nacua (+1400)
- Ja’Marr Chase (+1500)
- Bijan Robinson (+1900)
I thought I had this market figured out in the summer, but the 2025 Falcons are one of the most mind-numbingly inconsistent teams you’ll ever see, and that’s going to cost Bijan Robinson from winning this award. I’m off him after Sunday’s loss to the Dolphins where he should have piled up huge yardage and found the end zone.
Puka Nacua was my backup choice, but that injury that basically cost him 1.5 games is likely going to be his undoing. That’s 28 yards in two games on a season where he was on pace for 2,000 yards, which you can forget about now. He also doesn’t score many touchdowns. In fact, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the wide receiver with a better shot at this award now as he’s been lights out for Seattle. Very impressive season.
But Jonathan Taylor’s surge in the last month has him as the biggest favorite for any award right now. Taylor has scored 10 touchdowns in the last four games and he leads the NFL with 850 rushing yards, 1,056 yards from scrimmage, and 14 total touchdowns.
We talked about Taylor for MVP in the previous section, but it’s still much more likely (and suitable) they’ll settle on OPOY for his season. JSN is the value pick if you’re thinking about a potential Taylor injury ending his candidacy, but it’s hard to go against the chalk now as the Colts are showing historic offensive efficiency though eight games and that should lead to a quality second half of the year too.
Unless they’re about to experience one of the biggest collapses of all time. For the sneakiest of value picks, Patrick Mahomes is +8000 for OPOY, so he could double up awards (he was the last to do it in 2018) should he lead in total touchdowns and yards this year and Taylor slips.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award – Jonathan Taylor (-250 at FanDuel)
NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) Award
- Preseason pick: T.J. Watt (+1000)
- First quarter pick: Micah Parsons (+360)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Micah Parsons (+145)
- Myles Garrett (+300)
- Aidan Hutchinson (+500)
- Nik Bonitto (+750)
- Will Anderson Jr. (+1000)
- Jared Verse (+1800)
This could actually be the greatest award race of 2025 as all six can have a case here. But definitely favoring the top four as Nik Bonitto plays in a loaded defense that already won the award last year (Patrick Surtain II). However, he won’t get another game against Justin Fields.
Aidan Hutchinson and the Lions are still going to contend for the NFC North and No. 1 seed. But I still lean towards Hutchinson being more in that Comeback Player of the Year race.
Myles Garrett is almost single-handedly making me recalibrate how this award should work. Typically, you see it go to a player on a winning/playoff team, which Cleveland won’t be this year. But as long as the defense is good, I’m not sure it should matter anymore, especially if you watch how bad the Browns are on offense.
Garrett has been awesome with 10 sacks, and he just picked up 5.0 of those against Drake Maye and the Patriots, doing all he can in that game. But with the big loss on the scoreboard, that game is also a perfect example of why a defensive player should never really win MVP. They’re just not valuable enough as defense is about unit play and weakest links.
So, a bad record may do in Garrett after all, leaving Micah Parsons as the heavy favorite now for top-seeded Packers as he’ll get the credit for that improvement. He leads the NFL with 44 pressures if you’re looking at the NFL Pro data on that subjective stat. He’s had some timely sacks too against the Cowboys (overtime) and Cardinals (fourth quarter).
I liked him better when he was +360, but I’ll stick with Parsons to win his first DPOY award.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award – Micah Parsons (+145 at FanDuel)
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) Award
- Preseason pick: Ashton Jeanty (+300)
- First quarter pick: Ashton Jeanty (+380)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Jaxson Dart (+100)
- Emeka Egbuka (+180)
- Tyler Warren (+500)
- Tetairoa McMillan (+1200)
- Quinshon Judkins (+2000)
- Ashton Jeanty (+2000)
This one has been a mess as top picks Cam Ward, Ashton Jeanty, and Travis Hunter haven’t really worked out, or at least you can say they haven’t lived up to the expectations halfway through their rookie season.
Jaxson Dart is even money, but how many pieces can he keep losing around him and remain functional? First it was Malik Nabers at wide receiver, and now it’s running back Cam Skattebo, who dislocated his ankle and is out for the season. Dart has good rushing ability and has shown that off, but I’m not sure we won’t see more uglier games like the one in New Orleans or the growing pains of his first start against the Chargers. Just not sure what the angle is really going to be for him.
Emeka Egbuka had the early love in Tampa with those five touchdown catches. But over the last three weeks, he hasn’t scored, and he only has 117 total yards as the offense has fallen off some even with his opportunity to step up with injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (out for the year most likely). Those injuries help him, but it’s really hard to win this award if you’re not a clear WR1.
Tyler Warren should be getting some love for thriving at tight end right away, a position that’s hard to do that for. There’s also the fact that no tight end has ever won the award, so if we’re applying DEI practices to awards other than MVP, then why not spread the wealth to a great tight end if he keeps it up? He’s on pace for over 1,000 yards.
I don’t think Judkins in Cleveland or Jeanty play in offenses good enough to seriously contend for the award. I can say the same about Tetairoa McMillan in Carolina.
So, it does look like a three-horse race between Dart, Egbuka, and Warren unless Tyler Shough shocks everyone in New Orleans and lights it up the rest of the season now that he’s the starter. But don’t count on that.
I’m out on Jeanty, but I’m also not going with Dart or Egbuka. Let’s go with Warren on the best offense in the game right now. Solid odds for a potentially historic tight end.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award – Tyler Warren (+500 at FanDuel)
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY) Award
- Preseason pick: Shemar Stewart (+2500)
- First quarter pick: Abdul Carter (+150)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Abdul Carter (+110)
- Jihaad Campbell (+320)
- Nick Emmanwori (+500)
- Carson Schewsinger (+1900)
- Andrew Mukuba (+2000)
- Mykel Williams (+2200)
One month later, little has changed in this low-impact defensive rookie class. The biggest addition is Seattle safety Nick Emmanwori is now third in odds after he returned to action against Tampa. He played most of the snaps the last two games in wins over Jacksonville and Houston that went very well for the defense. But he doesn’t have any picks, forced fumbles, or sacks yet, so it’s unlikely he’ll have the stats to pull this off.
Abdul Carter of the Giants remains the favorite even though he still is sitting on 0.5 sacks, which he picked up in Week 1. He doesn’t start but he plays 70.9% of the snaps. He has 11 pressures but 5 of those came against the Chargers, who were missing both tackles. For such little production on a team that’s likely going to lose a lot of games and doesn’t have its best running back or wideout healthy on offense to help sustain drives, I would fade Carter at these odds.
Of course, the problem with pressure is it’s such a subjective stat. I can look at Pro Football Reference and see 11 pressures for Carter. But if I look at the defensive pass rush page on NFL Pro, powered by Next Gen Stats, Carter ranks 9th in the NFL with 33 pressures, tripe the amount another source is using. Which is right? Probably somewhere in the vast middle, but that’s a huge discrepancy.
But it probably will take subjective stats like pressures to sell this DROY case. The problem with voting for Eagles’ Jihaad Campbell is will they really give it to an off-ball linebacker who doesn’t rush the passer? That might be why you see Eagles safety Andrew Mukuba creeping up to +2000 for having two interceptions to tie for the class lead.
I don’t see great value in Carter at his current odds, but I guess we’ll stick with him for now as no one is really stepping up.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award – Abdul Carter (+110 at FanDuel)
NFL Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY) Award
- Preseason pick: Aidan Hutchinson (+300)
- First quarter pick: Aidan Hutchinson (+230)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Dak Prescott (+100)
- Christian McCaffrey (+200)
- Aidan Hutchinson (+500)
- Daniel Jones (+500)
- Stefon Diggs (+2200)
- Trevor Lawrence (+4000)
We still have very little clarity on whether Daniel Jones is eligible for this award on the basis of “he’s come back from sucking and now he’s great” as that’s not supposed to count anymore. I would vote for him if we can, but it’s still not clear.
As for how you differentiate the top here, it’s not easy. Dak Prescott is playing very well but it’s easy to see him miss the playoffs with that defense and have some rough games like last week in Denver that will eventually knock him down statistically.
Christian McCaffrey has been an extreme workhorse for the 49ers with 196 touches in 8 games, putting him on pace for well over 400 touches. He hasn’t been as effective as past years, but it’d be a miracle if he stays healthy on a team that’s so injured.
Aidan Hutchinson has been my choice all along as a way to award him without giving him DPOY. He’s having a solid year with 6.0 sacks and a league-high 4 forced fumbles. He can still do this, but I’m not sure he can overcome the star power of Dak or CMC.
I’ll still cautiously stick with Hutchinson, but Jones is really deserving of some award if he keeps playing like this and if they refuse to give him MVP because of past reputation.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award – Aidan Hutchinson (+500 at FanDuel)
NFL Coach of the Year Award
- Preseason pick: Liam Coen (+1400)
- First quarter pick: Liam Coen (+650)
Current odds leaders (via BetMGM):
- Shane Steichen, Colts (+100)
- Mike Vrabel, Patriots (+200)
- Dan Campbell, Lions (+1300)
- Kyle Shanahan, 49ers (+1500)
- Mike Macdonald, Seahawks (+1800)
- Sean McVay, Rams (+2000)
When I last picked Liam Coen to win, that was right before his upset over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football to get to 4-1. Unfortunately, the Jaguars seemed to treat that game like the Super Bowl and have lost both games since. His odds are way down to +4000.
That’s also because Shane Steichen has the Colts not only leading the AFC South but with the best record in the NFL at 7-1. We’ve talked a lot about how many Colts are up for awards already, and maybe Jones and Warren being new additions are helping make Steichen look better than he is, but he deserves credit for designing what this offense is and for making the killer decision to start Jones over Anthony Richardson.
The Colts have some tough games coming up, and it’s not impossible for Vrabel’s Patriots to get the No. 1 seed because of their soft schedule. But I love what Indy is doing and I think Steichen is going to win the award now.
But there is some decent value to be found here on the winner of the NFC West, especially if it’s Kyle Shanahan as the 49ers have had so many injuries. But I’m not confident in them winning the division, and I think it’s going to be crucial for this award winner to win his division whether it’s Steichen, Vrabel, or the NFC West coach.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Coach of the Year – Shane Steichen (+100 at BetMGM)
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