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Indianapolis Colts 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Is That a Manning in the Draft to Save This Team’s Bleak Future?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar15/08/2025 - 07:46 am
Anthony Richardson Sr. #5 of the Indianapolis Colts
(Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)

Few teams exemplify the importance of a franchise quarterback in the NFL better than the Indianapolis Colts. When they had Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, they were an annual contender. They played games that mattered and delivered many thrilling moments.

But now that it’s six years this month since Luck’s shocking retirement, the Colts are stuck in quarterback purgatory, which makes them an afterthought in the grand scheme of the league. Worse, they have often turned into a laughingstock:

I already said last month in the 2025 quarterback rankings that the Colts had the least desirable situation this year with a battle between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones. Well, it’s gotten worse quickly. Richardson was injured in the opening preseason game last week, taking a sack on a play where he never looked to the right side of the field where the pressure was coming from. Not a good sign for a third-year player:

There was already a plan for Jones to start the next preseason game anyway, but it’s just starting to look like another pointless lost year for coach Shane Steichen, who we don’t even know if he’s good or not for the job because of the disadvantage he’s stuck with at the most important position.

Surprisingly, the Colts are still a coin flip to win over 7.5 games for the third year in a row under Steichen. But with each passing week, that feels way too optimistic. In a division where the Jaguars have a new coach and Travis Hunter, where the Titans drafted Cam Ward, and where the Texans are feeling comfortable with DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud, the Colts feel like a team without a real plan or pulse.

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - APRIL 24: Wide receiver and defensive back Travis Hunter poses for a portrait after being selected second overall in the first round by the Jacksonville Jaguars during the 2025 NFL draft at Lambeau Field on April 24, 2025 in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
(Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)

This will be the first season in Indianapolis without eccentric owner Jim Irsay after he passed away in May at the age of 65. Say what you will about him, but he was there for the team’s greatest moments in Indy. If things go really south this year, I’d bet Irsay told someone close to him before he passed that this team should move heaven and earth to land Arch Manning, the nephew of Peyton Manning, in the draft.

The Colts sure seem to luck out in landing those No. 1 picks in years where there’s a franchise quarterback like that available, but it’s no sure thing for Arch Manning at Texas as he could return for another season and not come out until the 2027 draft. But does it really feel like the Colts are ready to turn it around by then anyway?

Let’s look at where things went wrong last year, why they may not get any better this year, and the best Colts bets for 2025.

Previously on COLTS: The Man Who Could Overthrow the Ayatollah

The 2024 Colts never really sold anyone on belief that this team had a shot to do something good. Even with five game-winning drives throughout the season, they finished 8-9, but they never won more than two games in a row, and all but one of their wins (Jets – Aaron Rodgers) was against a backup or rookie quarterback.

Anthony Richardson’s second season arguably peaked in Week 1 with that beautiful 60-yard touchdown pass to Alec Pierce that’s as good as any throw you’ll ever see. But if there’s a drawback to that play, it’s that Richardson seems to think the long ball is all he has to hit to move the chains and score points, and that’s just not how the modern NFL works.

Anthony Richardson #5 of the Indianapolis Colts
(Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

We didn’t see a lot of Richardson as a rookie because of injuries, and that was an issue again last year, but he was also benched for Joe Flacco at one point because he just wasn’t able to make the easy throws. He finished the season with his average throw coming 12.2 yards past the line of scrimmage, almost 3 full yards ahead of the next-closest passer (Trevor Lawrence). No wonder he only completed 47.7% of his passes, which is abysmal today and would have ranked next to last in 1964 too.

No wonder Pro Football Reference has Richardson down with a bad throw on 28% of his passes, 5.7 percentage points higher than any other passer in 2024. You can’t win this way in the NFL. It doesn’t matter if Jonathan Taylor is rushing for 1,431 yards in 14 games. The Colts were below average on third down and in the red zone, and the defense was arguably worse.

The Colts were 1-7 against teams who didn’t have a losing record, only beating the Steelers with Justin Fields, one of the worst quarterbacks in clutch time in NFL history. Even in that game, Richardson left injured after a decent start and Flacco had to save the day.

There was just never a sign that this team had the right stuff to compete. A low point was the 45-33 loss against the Giants as a 7.5-point road favorite. The Colts allowed Drew Lock to throw for 309 yards and 4 touchdowns, which felt like one of the worst days from the Chuck Pagano era when the Colts made one-game stars out of Tavon Austin (2013 Rams) or Jonas Gray (2014 Patriots).

As long as we’re reminiscing about disastrous days even when the Colts were still a contender, their double-pass trick play in Denver last year that went back for a touchdown was hands down the funniest Colts blunder since the fake punt against the 2015 Patriots.

Maybe the 2024 Colts were a little more entertaining than I’m giving them credit for. But even by 8-9 standards, this was not a good football team.

Indianapolis Colts Offseason Review

For better or worse, Shane Steichen’s offense with coordinator Jim Bob Cooter is back for another year. But the Colts have a new defensive coordinator that could be an upgrade over the bland Gus Bradley. But did the Colts do enough in the draft and free agency to make up for this quarterback deficiency?

Offense: At Least The Colts Found a Tight End

We don’t want to hijack things with a quarterback battle that no one wants to see, but with the injury histories of Richardson and Jones, could we see Notre Dame rookie Riley Leonard on the field at some point this year? You never know. But my gut says they try to get Richardson out there for Week 1, but we’ll see Jones start this year too, and by 2026 they’ll be ready to go another direction entirely.

But one position the Colts have struggled to fill since Dallas Clark left was tight end. They drafted Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen for Andrew Luck in 2012, but they were either injured or underwhelming, and it’s just not been a position the Colts have had much luck with in that department the last decade. They almost had a shot at Brock Bowers last year, but they got their guy this year in Penn State’s Tyler Warren.

Warren should be the team’s best tight end since Clark, and some were surprised the Bears took Colston Loveland over him as the first tight end off the board. But Warren carried Penn State’s passing game at times, and he could be a great security blanket for these quarterbacks who need the big target to deliver. Just watch this play:

This is why I think Steichen survives to 2026 no matter how the quarterbacks play. The Colts aren’t without weapons that a competent quarterback wouldn’t do well with now that Warren’s at tight end. Last year, they became the first offense in NFL history to have three receivers (all wideouts) break 800 yards with none of them breaking 900 yards. Weird share of yards for Alec Pierce (824), Michael Pittman Jr. (808), and Josh Downs (803).

Pittman is your prototypical possession receiver with good size while Pierce averaged a league-best 22.3 yards per catch as a big-play threat down the field. Downs is a 5’9” slot receiver but he could still grow into a poor man’s Antonio Brown (on the field only, please). Those are pretty well-defined roles that complement each other that a potentially great tight end like Warren can round out for a nice supporting cast with the right quarterback. Unfortunately, Richardson has poor accuracy and vision, and Jones is a sack merchant and inconsistent passer.

We didn’t even mention Adoni Mitchell, who could improve in his second year after a disappointing rookie season as the team’s second-round pick from Texas. Jonathan Taylor is still a force in the backfield, so the Colts do not lack weapons one bit here.

But there will be extra scrutiny on the interior of the offensive line. Center Ryan Kelly and right guard Will Fries both relocated to the Vikings. That means a couple of mid-round 2024 draft picks will take over in new center Tanor Bortolini and right guard Matt Goncalves. But both got a handful (or more) of starts as rookies, so they’re not that green in this offense. Left tackle Bernhard Raimann got paid this offseason, so the 2022 draft pick isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

You can see a vision for this offense, but the question is can Richardson or Jones see it before the pass rush gets to them? That’s going to be the issue unless Richardson undergoes one of the biggest Year 3 breakout transitions in history.

Based on his first preseason game and the way camp has gone, I’d bet against it.

Defense: Welcome Lou Anarumo  

If the Colts can ever figure out the quarterback position, they hired about the only defensive coordinator in the NFL today who can say he has figured out ways to stop Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in multiple big games.

Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo fell on the sword for the 2024 Bengals missing the playoffs again, but they didn’t give him a ton of talent to work with outside of Trey Hendrickson, who led the league again with 17.5 sacks.

In coming over to Indianapolis, Anarumo’s main goals should be to get 2024 first-round pick Laiatu Latu playing at a much higher level after the edge rusher had 4.0 sacks and 12 quarterback hits in his rookie year. Otherwise, the Colts have some solid veteran rushers in DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye. Linebacker Zaire Franklin led the NFL in tackles last year.

You can’t expect much from the draft class this season on defense. The Colts used the 45th pick in the second round on Ohio State defensive end JT Tuimoloau, who should be part of the rotation this year. But third-round corner Justin Walley unfortunately tore his ACL last week, so his season is over.

The Colts didn’t want to pay for those offensive linemen to stay, so they instead invested in the secondary. They added corner Charvarius Ward, who has had varying degrees of success with the Chiefs and 49ers in his career. They also signed safety Cam Bynum from the Vikings. Teams were picking a bit on corner Jaylon Jones last year (allowed 8.1 yards per target on 102 targets), so he’ll have a bit more help this year. Slot corner Kenny Moore is probably still the standout player in this group.

If Latu steps up and the veterans in the secondary acclimate, then the Colts have a good shot to improve on defense to where they’re at least adequate. But fans should be most excited about Anarumo bringing more blitzing, varied coverages, and unpredictability to the defensive scheme than what the vanilla Bradley always did.

Best Bets for the 2025 Colts   

After reviewing this team’s roster, it makes sense why the betting lines aren’t so doom and gloom as the Colts should not finish with a record so terrible that they could realistically draft Arch Manning No. 1 overall in 2026 if he decides to come out. That doesn’t mean they can’t think up a cunning play for 2027 or put themselves in position to trade up for him should he be available.

But as someone who already picked the Jaguars to win the AFC South, Richardson and Jones just do not convince me the Colts are going to make this work this year. However, do they get to 8-9 again or not? Let’s fish through the schedule for wins:

  • The Colts swept the Titans and split the Jaguars last year, but you have to figure those are tougher opponents this year with the big changes those teams made. The Colts may be lucky to do better than 2-4 in the division as they haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014.
  • But opening with Miami may be one of the most winnable games all year with the Dolphins in some disarray this summer.
  • The Colts also host the Raiders and Cardinals in Weeks 5-6, so those are teams closer to their tier this year.
  • But the Colts have to play 2024 playoff teams like the Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Steelers, and Rams.
  • The Falcons (Week 10) could be a better team this year with Michael Penix Jr. taking over.
  • The Colts are in Seattle in Week 15 a week after going to Jacksonville, their House of Horrors.
  • The Colts host the 49ers on Monday night in Week 16, and that team should be much better this year.
  • Indy is in Houston to close the season.

This is not an easy schedule. If the Colts “are who we thought they were” at quarterback, and if Cam Ward is the real deal for Tennessee, it’s possible the Colts have the worse quarterback in all 17 games on the schedule this year. We know things never work out that way because of injuries and disappointments, but this team is unlikely to feast on as many rookies and backups as it did a year ago to get to 8-9.

While the Colts may be closer to returning to relevancy than it looks, give me under 7.5 wins this year, and maybe even lower next year if they want to get a Manning back under center.

How do the Colts topple the Kansas City dynasty in the future? Arch Manning at quarterback, Anarumo calling the defense, and Warren being a better tight end than the Travis Kelce replacement. That’s how you get back to marquee games and the “Star Wars numbers” Irsay used to talk about.

But for now, it’s just a nice dream of what could be. Nice dream.

  • NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts under 7.5 wins (-110) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar15/08/2025 - 07:46 am