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Washington Commanders 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Why Jayden Daniels vs. Jalen Hurts Is the Next Classic Quarterback Rivalry

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar01/09/2025 - 11:34 am
Jayden Daniels #5 of the Washington Commanders
(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

You have to give it up to the Washington Commanders for one of the clearest examples yet of why NFL teams need competent ownership, and how finding a franchise quarterback like Jayden Daniels can change everything in a hurry. No more jokes about “more name changes than playoff wins,” because just like that, Washington is a Super Bowl contender again.

The case can be made that Washington was the most wretched NFL franchise in the salary-cap era (since 1994). During that time, they were the only team that never won 11 games in a season. They also never won multiple playoff games in any season since 1991 when they last won the Super Bowl behind Joe Gibbs.

Former disgraced owner Dan Snyder was turning a profit while turning stomachs for years with gross contracts to over-the-hill veterans and reports of lewd behavior behind the scenes. He had to go. Someone finally drained the swamp in Washington in 2023.

But you’re not competing for much in the NFL without a good quarterback, something this team has lacked for decades. That’s where Daniels stepped in as the No. 2 pick in the draft. He had that incredible 2023 season at LSU when he won the Heisman Trophy, but his first four seasons in college weren’t anything like that.

Washington entered 2024 with few expectations as only three teams had worse odds for the Super Bowl or a lower win total. Little did we know that Daniels would turn in the greatest rookie quarterback season in NFL history, leading Washington, which was still a flawed team, one game shy of Super Bowl 59.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

It’s amazing what the right quarterback can do for a team. With Daniels playing like a veteran in the MVP race, we all of a sudden reconsidered the coaching value of Dan Quinn, who was getting his second shot after Atlanta hired him in 2015. We were thinking offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury might be getting a second shot soon. After a career-best season in Year 6, Terry McLaurin became one of the highest-paid wide receivers in the NFL. Tight end Zach Ertz looked like he found a fountain of youth at 34.

But now the Commanders face something they really haven’t had in years: Expectations. Sure, you can still find eight teams with better odds to win Super Bowl 60 than the Commanders (+2000 at FanDuel). They’d fare better if they didn’t share a division with the defending champs from Philadelphia.

But who was the only team to beat the Eagles after September? It was Washington. What’s the only division in the NFL that hasn’t had a repeat winner since 2004? The NFC East.  Who added a few proven starters and may have the next big thing at quarterback? Washington.

We know we’ve been duped before as the 2024 Houston Texans were basically in the same position as the Commanders are going into this year. Houston got an all-time great rookie season from C.J Stroud, they won a playoff game, then they added another star receiver (Stefon Diggs) and pass rusher (Danielle Hunter). They were supposed to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC with Stroud ascending to MVP level, but they just ended up getting swept by them out of the divisional round, losing in the same spot as 2023 after Stroud took 8 sacks.

Would the Commanders sign up for another NFC Championship Game loss this year? After decades of utter irrelevancy, maybe they would. But we’re going to look at why this team has a shot to get to the Super Bowl this year, why Jalen Hurts vs. Jayden Daniels may be the quarterback rivalry the NFC has been missing, and the best Commanders bets for 2025.

Previously on COMMANDERS: A New Hope

Recapping all the records Daniels set in his rookie season is hard, which is why we already touched on that when we ranked his 2024 as the greatest rookie quarterback season ever.

His impact was noticeably immediate on the Washington offense:

  • By the end of September, Daniels led the Commanders on 16 straight scoring drives (kneeldowns excluded), the longest known streak in NFL history.
  • He made his mark in front of a national audience when he completed 21-of-23 passes in a 38-33 win in Cincinnati, including a dagger touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin.
  • A Week 7 rib injury actually robbed Daniels of potentially beefing up his numbers against a bad Carolina team, then it may have hampered his play a bit over the next month.

You can say the Hail Mary touchdown to beat Chicago needed a good bounce to get to Noah Brown, but Daniels excelled in clutch moments like a veteran. He led five fourth-quarter comeback wins, tying the rookie record.

That doesn’t even include the 86-yard touchdown to McLaurin against Dallas with 21 seconds left. That should have tied the game, but the Commanders missed the ensuing extra point and lost 34-26. It also doesn’t include a 28-27 loss to the Steelers where Ertz ran a poor route on 4th-and-9 and came up a yard short of the conversion, or else that felt like another game-winning drive in the making for Daniels.

He showed the uncanny ability to work the short game that composes much of this Washington offense while also hitting daggers deep down the field on third downs when the defenses expected him to throw. On top of that, he’s a threat to run for a first down on third-and-long as he rushed for 891 yards and 6 touchdowns too.

Daniels even set an NFL record by throwing four touchdown passes in the final 30 seconds of a game, the most ever in one season. The fourth was to beat the Eagles in the closing seconds in Week 16, their most impressive win in the regular season.

But there were some legitimate concerns about this team going into the playoffs:

The defense was mediocre at best, ranking 20th or worse in most key categories.

The Commanders beat up on a weak schedule, including those wins over the Bears (Hail Mary) and Cowboys (Week 18 backups) where they barely got by.

Even in their win over Philadelphia, Jalen Hurts left early with a concussion and DeVonta Smith dropped a crucial pass that could have run clock against Washington, which had five turnovers that day.

However, the playoffs would not be a short-lived run despite Washington’s underdog status. Daniels had great games in Tampa and Detroit, and the defense forced enough timely turnovers to get the job done and put the team in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1991.

But after hanging in there early with the Eagles, things fell apart after the Commanders managed to lose three fumbles for the second time in a month against Philadelphia.  The Eagles rushed for 229 yards and 7 touchdowns in a 55-23 rout.

It was a disappointing ending, but 2024 was by far the most fun and hope this team has provided its fans since that historic 1991 Super Bowl run. Now, they just have to get better and see if they can overcome the Eagles in this division.

Daniels finished No. 7 in MVP voting, which is absurd when he did something no one has done in decades. He made us care again about the Washington franchise.

Why Jayden Daniels vs. Jalen Hurts Could Be the NFL’s Next Classic Quarterback Rivalry

Commanders Jayden Daniels Jalen Hurts

For a great quarterback rivalry in the NFL, you really need three elements to be present. Two of them should be obvious:

  • Two players who are very successful and good at what they do – we’re not getting hyped for a mid-off.
  • They have to meet frequently in games that are important to the season’s narrative.

But the third element should really be a contrast in playing style, or you could express it as a difference in role or responsibility. Here are some examples, and yes, some of these terms can be interchangeable:

  • Gunslinger vs. Game Manager: One is risky and volatile; the other is safe and conservative.
  • One Man Army vs. Field General: One knows the best plan of attack is calling his own number; the other effectively knows how to use his troops to advance the attack.
  • Pocket Passer vs. Dual Threat: One is stationary and getting the ball out fast; the other is holding it long and showing off their mobility.
  • Playmaker vs. System Player: One can go off script; the other must run the play as scripted.

This is not to say you couldn’t enjoy watching Drew Brees and Matt Ryan air it out in a “first to 38 wins” game twice a year with Saints-Falcons, but it lacks the sizzle and stakes of other rivalries in NFL history.

You could point to Sammy Baugh (Redskins) vs. Sid Luckman (Bears) in the 1940s as the first great NFL quarterback rivalry. This set a lot of the blueprint for rivalries to come as Baugh was the more accomplished passer, but Luckman usually played for more complete teams that were better at running the ball and playing defense for legendary coach George Halas. Hence, Luckman usually got the best of their head-to-head meetings and won twice the number of championships as Baugh did.

Johnny Unitas (Colts) vs. Bart Starr (Packers) took things a step further in the 1960s. Unitas led the Colts to back-to-back titles as the best quarterback in the game in 1958-59, but once head coach Vince Lombardi took over the Packers, they soon won five championships and were the team of the 1960s. Starr never had to throw the ball as much as Unitas as he was in a more run-heavy offense with greater defenses that kept the score down. But he was still efficient in his role.

Dan Marino (Dolphins) vs. Joe Montana (49ers) furtherdefined what a quarterback rivalry looks like in the Super Bowl era. They didn’t meet that often, though Montana got the best of Marino in the 1984 season’s Super Bowl, and Marino got the best of Montana in his final NFL game with the 1994 Chiefs in the playoffs. But that was one where you had a quick-release passer in Marino who did what he could with a minimal defense and running game while Montana was the ultimate field general in Bill Walsh’s West Coast Offense.

But the quarterback rivalry that ended up having it all was Peyton Manning (Colts) vs. Tom Brady (Patriots) with Manning playing up the Baugh/Unitas/Marino archetype while Brady was the Luckman/Starr/Montana.

This rivalry brought “class” into it more than ever with Manning as the generational No. 1 overall pick, the son of an NFL quarterback born to do this, and Brady was just a sixth-round pick, No. 199 overall, who didn’t win the job at either Michigan or New England right away. The highest expectations against the eternal underdog. They even started out in the same division (AFC East) in 2001, but the rivalry really took off in 2003 when they started meeting annually in some of the biggest games in NFL history.

Early on, Manning had the better receivers, Brady had the better coach, defense, running game, special teams, etc. The weird thing about their rivalry is they almost never were games that were shootouts, and they almost never were games where both quarterbacks played very well. More often than not, the games swung on plays that had nothing to do with either quarterback. Brady won the first two playoff meetings, but Manning won the last three AFC Championship Games.

That takes us to today, and everyone wants to paint Patrick Mahomes as the new Tom Brady for having the best coach (Andy Reid), best tight end (Travis Kelce), a reliable kicker (Harrison Butker), and he has the highest winning percentage and most Super Bowls among his peers, who people then try to slot in the Manning role with the likes of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or even Joe Burrow.

But the problem is it just doesn’t fit. Mahomes gives you the best of both worlds with Brady’s rings and playoff success, but he also has Manning’s consistency and statistical dominance. The Bills and Ravens have had more complete teams than the Chiefs during this run, yet those superior scoring defenses, offensive lines, and better field position for Allen and Jackson haven’t translated to any playoff wins against Mahomes. Allen has notably had four chances to upstage Mahomes in a playoff game and has yet to do so.

That’s why Mahomes still belongs in his own tier as he has a monopoly on stats, winning, moments, championships, head-to-head success, etc. over his peers.

Until that changes, you can’t just force “Mahomes is Brady” when he’s had the best start to a career in NFL history. Mahomes is doing his own thing.

But after one season in Washington, you can see the potential for how Jayden Daniels vs. Jalen Hurts can make the Manning vs. Brady rivalry work. We know they’ll have to meet each other at least twice a year by playing in the same division, for starters:

  • Manning was a Heisman Trophy runner-up and No. 1 overall pick; Daniels was the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner and No. 2 overall pick.
  • Manning rewrote the NFL rookie record book as a passer in 1998 while Daniels did his share of record breaking as a rookie in 2024.
  • Brady struggled to win starting quarterback jobs right away for Michigan and the Patriots where he was a sixth-round pick; Hurts struggled to keep the Alabama job and was a second-round pick where he backed up Carson Wentz for most of 2020.
  • Like how Manning helped Marvin Harrison turn into an elite receiver, Daniels immediately helped Terry McLaurin (among others) to a career year.
  • Hurts saw his numbers elevated in 2022 after the team traded for A.J. Brown similar to Brady’s big boost in 2007 when the Patriots acquired Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth.
  • Especially in 2024, Hurts was viewed as having a super team with Saquon Barkley solidifying a great receiving corps, elite offensive line, and a defense that quickly turned things around to become an elite unit that won a Super Bowl.
  • Daniels took over a 4-13 team that made some strides from the bottom-ranked defense they had in 2023, but they were still subpar on that side of the ball last year.
  • Daniels threw more touchdown passes (25) as a rookie than Hurts has had in any of his five seasons.
  • Hurts and Brady may be known as the two best quarterback sneakers in NFL history while Manning and Daniels may be best at calling their own number for throws in short-yardage situations – Washington was 20-of-23 on fourth down last year in large part due to Daniels’ greatness.
  • Hurts is 2-0 against Daniels in the games he started and finished last year, including the big win in the NFC Championship Game.
  • Daniels was let down by his teammates losing six fumbles in his last two games against Philadelphia.
  • Eagles coach Nick Sirianni rubs people the wrong way, but he’s more accomplished than Dan Quinn, and he may simply hire better coordinators than Quinn as he’s already helped Shane Steichen (Colts), Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals), and Kellen Moore (Saints) to head coaching jobs, and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is largely credited for helping the Eagles win the Super Bowl.

Some of these are projections after one season for Daniels. But much of it is undeniably true, and based on the way these teams are currently constructed, 2025 is likely another season where Hurts will have a better coaching staff, running game, offensive line, top two wideouts, and defense than Daniels.

Teams make winning the division their first priority each season. The fact is division control is usually tied to which team has the best quarterback. That’s why Manning’s teams usually won his division, and the same is true for Brady, Allen, Montana, Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, etc.

That’s also the reason the NFC East hasn’t had a repeat winner since the 2001-04 Eagles as the quarterback dominance has been shared by those four teams over the years. Whether it was injury or otherwise, you rarely had the same quarterback be the star in consecutive years out of Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Robert Griffin III, Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, etc.

Daniels was the breakout star quarterback last season, but the Eagles had the super team and still won the division and beat Washington in the title game. It’s rare for one division to house two highly-ranked quarterbacks, but the NFC East could realistically have the two most accomplished quarterbacks in the conference this year.

I tweeted three years ago that Hurts could end up starting his third NFC Championship Game before his 28th birthday due to the lack of quarterback challengers in the NFC. Meanwhile, the AFC is overloaded with them. Well, he’s just got to reach that game this year for that tweet to come true.

But the arrival of Daniels certainly makes things more interesting in the division. Now it’s up to Washington to build a team capable of overtaking the Eagles and to take advantage of Daniels’ rookie contract before it’s a few years down the road and he’s making nearly $75 million per season given the rate of inflation these days.

You don’t want to end up like Justin Herbert – on the field; we’ll take going home to Madison Beer any day – and live your career in the shadow of Mahomes and the Chiefs. That’s why this has a chance to be a classic quarterback rivalry with some of the most important games in the NFC on a yearly basis.

Washington Commanders Offseason Review

The Commanders retained their coordinators, so that’s a good sign for continuity for the offense. Then again, we said the exact same thing about the Texans keeping Bobby Slowik a year ago, then he was fired. Life comes at you fast in the NFL. The Commanders have added some big names, but did they address the defense enough to get to a Super Bowl?

Offense: Enough for an MVP Campaign for Jayden Daniels?

Frankly, Jayden Daniels had a better MVP case in 2024 than Josh Allen when you consider the way he lifted a team that no one was expecting to be good. If it was an award that combined regular season with playoffs, it’d be hard to deny that Daniels was that guy:

Again, Daniels’ ability to be a triple threat with the short pass, the intermediate/deep pass, and his running makes him one of the most dangerous quarterbacks to defend. Then when you combine his clutch play with the way he elevates his teammates, it’s no wonder he has some of the best MVP odds (+1000 at FanDuel) this year.

But you do usually need some elite group of receivers and/or offensive line to turn in an MVP season on stats alone, especially if you don’t end up winning your division as the Commanders may not do because of Philadelphia’s presence.

Daniels is going to have to adjust to a new cast that is better in some areas, worse in others, and a toss-up at other spots:

  • The Commanders traded for wide receiver Deebo Samuel, a YAC machine from San Francisco, but he turns 30 in January and is coming off an underwhelming season.
  • Wide receiver Noah Brown is currently nursing an injury.
  • More 2024 Houston déjà vu that’s scaring me: Commanders traded for left tackle Laremy Tunsil (Texans), a 5-time Pro Bowler who should be solid for them.
  • Dyami Brown had an awesome postseason (229 yards) for Washington, but he’s in Jacksonville now.
  • Olamide Zaccheaus had one of his best years with 506 yards, but he’s with the Bears now.
  • Fourth-round rookie Jaylin Lane (Virginia Tech) could have to fill the void left by those secondary wideouts this year.
  • Tight end Zach Ertz turns 35 in October, so it’d be nice if 2024 second-round pick Ben Sinnott showed more this year.
  • The Commanders sent running back Brian Robinson to the 49ers, putting more pressure on veteran Austin Ekeler and seventh-round rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who likes to go by “Bill” for short.
  • Washington used the No. 29 pick in the first round on right tackle Josh Conerly (Oregon), so we’ll see if they regret passing on defense there.

A great quarterback can cover a lot of issues, but I see a seventh-round rookie back, a 35-year-old tight end, two new tackles (one rookie), top two wide receivers are turning 30 with one coming off a career year and one off a bad year, and your secondary receivers have very little NFL experience.

It’s not exactly giving “players in their prime ready to dominate” like the 2004 Colts, 2011 Packers, or 2018 Chiefs. But I trust Daniels to make this work.

Defense: At Least Get to Mediocrity

Well, if trading for Micah Parsons was on the table, that could have been one player the Commanders needed to turn the tide in the NFC East. But not even Dallas owner Jerry Jones is probably crazy enough to deal him in the division. Deal him to a nemesis in Green Bay? Sure, but not Washington.

That’s the unfortunate thing about this offseason. The Commanders really couldn’t go all in to maximize Daniels’ rookie contract and trade for a star pass rusher like Maxx Crosby (Raiders) or Myles Garrett (Browns). Those players signed extensions to stay with their bad teams.

That’s why it was a little surprising the Commanders didn’t do more in free agency and the draft on defense to better compete with the Eagles. Their biggest trades and first-round pick all went on the offense even though Daniels showed he could elevate pretty well there.

The Eagles reminded everyone how to beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. You have to rush Mahomes without blitzing and get pressure with three or four. Washington’s leader in sacks and pressures last year was Dante Fowler, and he’s gone and back to Dallas after 10.5 sacks for the Commanders.

Oddly enough, Dallas’ No. 44 pick, defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College), was a player I thought the Commanders could target with their No. 29 pick, but they opted for the offensive tackle Conerly instead. We’ll see how that goes.

Defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw comes over from the Jets after one of his best seasons, and linebackers Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu (fellow Tush Push hater) are back.

But for the pass rush, they made Von Miller their biggest signing. He’s a future Hall of Famer and former Super Bowl MVP, but he’s also 36 years old and had no sacks in five playoff games with Buffalo the last two seasons. The good news is the Commanders didn’t spend a fortune on Miller at this stage of his career – that’s what the Snyder era would have done.

The secondary added a player in the second round for a third year in a row, so there’s still hope they grow there in Quinn’s system. This year’s second-round rookie is corner Trey Amos, a Week 1 starter from Mississippi, who will likely draw a lot of tough assignments this year. In this division, you have players like George Pickens and DeVonta Smith as WR2s.

Corner Marshon Lattimore only joined the Commanders during the season last year, so maybe a full offseason and healthier year for him can help out. But it’s not looking like a great defense by any means, and it’s relying on some players in Miller and Wagner who peaked a decade ago in the NFL.

Best Bets for the 2025 Commanders     

If you were just going by history, you could point to some of the most successful rookie quarterbacks in NFL history getting even better in Year 2 and reaching the Super Bowl: Dan Marino (1984 Dolphins), Ben Roethlisberger (2005 Steelers), and Russell Wilson (2013 Seahawks) all did that with the last two winning it.

Based on Dan Quinn’s history, in his second year in Atlanta (2016), Matt Ryan had his best season ever to win MVP, and the team was in the Super Bowl. We’ll leave it at that and not mention what happened in said Super Bowl.

Based on the stunning NFC East history, none of these teams have been able to win the division in consecutive years since 2004. Every other division in the NFL has had at least two repeat winners in that time.

Washington would be an obvious pick to overtake the Eagles, keep that streak going in the NFC East, and watch Daniels flourish into an MVP winner in Year 2.

It all sounds good, but maybe I’m still hurt by the way Houston failed to do this in 2024 after having so many of the same advantages as Washington. A defense that should get better after adding a pass rusher, a quarterback who should elevate anyone you stick with him on offense, and they were supposed to challenge Kansas City the way the Eagles stand in Washington’s way in the division.

But the Eagles still look great on paper and sound hungry to repeat. I already have MVP shares on Daniels, but you’ll have to come back Wednesday to see if he’s the best pick for it this year. But there should be caution in that wild card quarterbacks almost never win the award unless they have clearly dominant stats.

But let’s look at the schedule for a Washington team that has an over/under 9.5 wins as it’s absolutely going to be tougher than the 2024 schedule:

  • Have to take advantage of the Giants at home in Week 1 as it only gets harder from there.
  • Thursday night in Green Bay in Week 2, a decisively tough game and an important one for NFC standings.
  • Raiders come to Washington in Week 3, one of the most winnable games.
  • Week 4 could be tough in Atlanta, a team that took Washington to overtime last year.
  • Week 5 is against the Chargers on the road, a tough defense and great quarterback.
  • Hosting the Bears in Week 6 on a Monday night, and Ben Johnson won’t blow the game the way Matt Eberflus did.
  • Week 7 is in Dallas, and that defense did a better job than most against Daniels last year (no Parsons is big though).
  • Week 8 is a Monday night in Kansas City, and hopefully the first of as many Daniels vs. Mahomes games as we can get.
  • Hosting Seattle before hosting Detroit is a spot where the team better get at least one win.
  • Week 11 is overseas (Madrid) against Miami before a bye week, so have to win that one.
  • Denver comes to Washington, which is much better than gong to Mile High.
  • Week 14 in Minnesota and Week 15 in New York (Giants) could mean inexperienced quarterbacks if it’s J.J. McCarthy and rookie Jaxson Dart.
  • Very odd choice by the NFL to make the Eagles matchups, the literal NFC Championship Game rematch, in Weeks 16 and 18.
  • The Commanders are hosting Dallas on Christmas, so that gives them a few extra days to prepare for that road trip to Philadelphia in Week 18 that you just hope is for the division or more.

The schedule does at least set up for a Daniels MVP, because if he shines against the Eagles in those marquee games to end the year, that’s going to top his case off.

But going all in on Washington to take back the NFC East behind an MVP season by Daniels is just not something I can do at the end of the day. I loved the idea in February, a little less in March, and the draft just didn’t do enough for me to pick that. Not when you have all those regression warnings for close-game success, second-year quarterback, team facing a much tougher schedule, etc.

However, it’s still surprising to see the Commanders are even money to win over 9.5 games. I trust Jayden Daniels more than enough to win double-digit games and get this team to the playoffs again.

  • NFL Pick: Washington Commanders over 9.5 wins (+100) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Washington Commanders to make playoffs (-122) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Most Valuable Player – Jayden Daniels (+1000) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar01/09/2025 - 11:34 am