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Atlanta Falcons 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Give Michael Penix a Defense and This Playoff Drought Should End

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar20/08/2025 - 09:01 am
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - AUGUST 15: Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Atlanta Falcons warms up prior to an NFL preseason football game against the Tennessee Titans at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on August 15, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia.
(Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)

Two of the longest active playoff droughts in the NFL are in the NFC South dating back to the 2017 season when the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers last made the tournament. We already looked at the Carolina Panthers’ task with Bryce Young, but there’s more optimism around the Falcons in Year 2 for coach Raheem Morris and quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

Things were not supposed to play out this way after the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a 4-year deal worth $180 million in March 2024. That’s what made using the No. 8 pick on Penix such a shock in the 2024 draft, then it took just 14 games for the torch to get passed to Penix after buyer’s remorse with Captain Kirk.

But at the end of the day, the Falcons are spending about the same $45 million on their quarterbacks this season that teams are spending on Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. Slightly less than the cap hits for Dak Prescott ($50.5M) and Matthew Stafford ($47.5M) as well. If Penix is the real deal and Cousins is one of the best backups in the league, then so be it.

It’s up to the Falcons to unseat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have won the last four NFC South titles. The sportsbooks see the Falcons as the biggest threat to Tampa in the division, but the Falcons are still not favored to make the playoffs (+136 at FanDuel) right now.

Let’s look back at why Cousins got the early yank for Penix, why this should work out for the team, the important draft additions, and the best Falcons bets for 2025.

Previously on FALCONS: Captain Kirk Gets Lost in Space

Again, let’s not belabor the weird strategy the Falcons had with their quarterbacks in 2024. But if you watched Kirk Cousins in Week 1 against the Steelers, he looked like a 36-year-old statue coming off a torn Achilles. That’s what made it all the more remarkable when he pulled off a 22-21 comeback win in Philadelphia in Week 2, a win that looks more impressive in hindsight when you look at what the Eagles accomplished last year.

But the best thing Cousins did was light up the Tampa Bay defense twice, including that epic 500-yard passing night in an overtime win. At one point, the Falcons were 6-3 with a sweep in hand over the Bucs, who were only 4-5 in November.

Kirk Cousins #18 of the Atlanta Falcons
(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

But that lead did not hold up in Atlanta, which hasn’t reached the playoffs since 2017. The Buccaneers won six of their last seven games, and the Falcons finished 2-6. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly when the Falcons should have benched Cousins for Penix, a move you knew would likely be permanent if you went that route.

If you do it after the whole team played poorly in a 38-6 loss in Denver, you’d have the bye week to get Penix ready. You’d have a better shot (most likely) of winning that game against the Chargers where Cousins was awful in a 17-13 loss.

But even if they pulled Cousins after that game, does Penix beat a good team with a complex defense like the Vikings on the road in Week 14? Very unlikely, so even if the Falcons beat the Chargers, they’d still likely finish 9-8 and miss the playoffs.

The decision to bench Cousins finally came after a win no less, because he looked stiff again in a 15-9 win over the Raiders. Penix got the start against the Giants, won that game with plenty of help, then the Falcons lost a pair of overtime games to the Commanders (30-24) and Panthers (44-38) that were high-scoring affairs.

But let’s not blame that on Penix, who showed up in the clutch in both games:

  • Against Washington, Penix threw a game-tying touchdown pass on 4th-and-13, set up a 56-yard game-winning field goal that was missed, then watched the defense give up a game-winning touchdown in overtime.
  • Against Carolina, Penix led two game-tying touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, including a score with 0:46 left, but he never got the ball in overtime once again.

That’s pretty good for a rookie quarterback in his second and third games, and it’s pretty bad for the Atlanta defense, which notably did not have to take the field against Tampa Bay in the Week 5 win.

That’s how you finish 8-9 with a defense ranked in the bottom half or bottom quarter for most key stats. Had the Falcons won those overtime games and finished 10-7, they would have had the tiebreaker over the Buccaneers for the NFC South crown.

But it just didn’t work out last year.

Atlanta Falcons Offseason Review

The Falcons have a new defensive coordinator and have retained their core pieces on offense, which could be an exciting unit this year. Let’s look at the potential for Atlanta getting better on both sides of the ball in Year 2 for coach Raheem Morris, who once helped the  Buccaneers go from 3-13 in his 2009 rookie season to 10-6 the following year.

Crazy Eights: The Falcons Have a New “Triplets” Offense in the NFL

Falcons Offense NFL
Atlanta’s Crazy 888 Offense: Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson, Drake London (all drafted No. 8 overall by the team in 2022-24).

I originally wrote “Big 3” but that’s such an NBA term. Let’s bring back the idea of a “Triplets” offense where you have a star quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Numerous groupings have existed over the years, but the 1990s Cowboys popularized it with Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin. Then the 1999-2005 Colts kicked it up a notch with Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, and Marvin Harrison.

It’s not just a matter of elite talent and high draft picks and expectations. These offenses were carried through these three players as the backs were workhorses, and the receiver had a huge lead in production over his teammates as the dominant go-to playmaker. Those principles have been diminished in today’s game a bit with running-back-by-committee approaches and mixing in multiple receiver personnel groupings.

But the Falcons have a real shot to feature their own triplets this season in Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson, and Drake London. They could even forge their own nickname as “Crazy Eights” after the card game or “Crazy 888” as a Kill Bill reference since they were all drafted with the No. 8 overall pick by Atlanta in the 2022-24 drafts:

  • Penix was a prolific college passer and already averaged 245.7 passing yards per game in his three rookie starts. He could easily be a 4,000-yard passer in 2025.
  • Robinson got a greater share of the running back touches in his second season, rushing for 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns while catching 61 passes for 431 yards. He had a career-high 170 rushing yards in his last game, so he could rush for 1,500 yards this season on a better team and challenge for the league lead in yards from scrimmage.
  • London is a big target (6’4”) who has gotten better each year and had a career-high 1,271 yards on 100 catches and 9 touchdowns in 2024.

Atlanta can’t do wrong in building around these players, especially since the Falcons didn’t really add much to the skill positions this year. Tyler Allgeier is still the secondary back behind Robinson, Darnell Mooney can be the WR2 again when he gets healthy, and they still have Ray-Ray McCloud in the slot after he had a career year with 686 receiving yards.

Then there’s the enigma that is Kyle Pitts, the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history. Last year was his most productive since his rookie season in 2021, but we’re still kind of waiting for him to turn things on and live up to that draft hype. But in Year 5, he could produce at least 600 more yards and some timely plays in this offense.

Not to sound like a broken record, but the offensive line is also staying intact, led by longtime left tackle Jake Matthews. All five starters return with one caveat as the Falcons would like to see more consistency from center Ryan Neuzil, who shared the snaps with Drew Dalman (left for Bears) last year after Dalman was injured. It may be worth noting that Neuzil was not the center during Penix’s three starts at the end of the year.

But offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is really relying on that younger arm and more mobile legs from Penix to upgrade this offense over what Cousins was giving them last year. They didn’t splurge on offense at all in free agency or the 2025 draft. They want Penix to get the job done, and he’s got the right pieces around him to be a productive full-time starter.

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JANUARY 05: Bijan Robinson #7 of the Atlanta Falcons celebrates after scoring a rushing touchdown with teammate Michael Penix Jr. #9 during the second quarter against the Carolina Panthers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on January 05, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia.
(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

We only have 105 passes to go from Penix’s rookie season, but stats like 7.4 yards per attempt, a low 3.7% sack rate, and some admirable play on third down and in crunch time are good indicators for him. It is worth noting he did not face a good defense in his three starts last year, but the NFC South may not feature many of those anyway.

I’m not saying I expect Penix to take the league by storm like Patrick Mahomes (2018) and Lamar Jackson (2019) did when they got their opportunities and won MVP in their second seasons, but Penix is taking over a decent situation with a good weapon at each position and a more than solid offensive line.

Just get this kid a defense and maybe a possession in overtime.

Defense: Finding a Pass Rush  

Atlanta fans hate the rival New Orleans Saints, so the last thing they’d want to become is a copy of the Saints with a great quarterback wasted by defenses that lead to 7-win seasons because of all the blown leads. For that matter, the Falcons already cosplayed as the Saints in the 2010s and early 2020s with the Matt Ryan years, blowing countless leads, including the one we shall not name.

Last year, the defense was almost passable enough for a playoff spot. You really can’t blame the defense for the 17-13 loss to the Chargers that was a Cousins catastrophe or giving up only six field goals to the Steelers in Week 1. The offense and special teams also struggled in a 20-17 loss to the hated Saints.

But it would have been short lived even if they qualified for the tournament. Jayden Daniels likely would have came into that dome in January and blew their doors off again as he did to the Buccaneers and Lions in the playoffs.

The Falcons added pass rusher Matt Judon and safety Justin Simmons shortly before the season started – two moves that could have put them over the top. However, maybe there’s a reason those players were still available in the summer as neither panned out for Atlanta.

Judon had 5.5 sacks in 17 games and as many quarterback hits (9) as he had in four games for the Patriots in 2023. He’s with Miami now. Simmons got his obligatory interception off Patrick Mahomes in September but didn’t have much of an impact and remains a free agent today.

Teams liked throwing the ball on Atlanta as it surrendered 34 touchdown passes (only Carolina allowed more), but the Falcons were 31st in sacks with 31. They need more pass rush, and coming over from the Rams, Raheem Morris isn’t one for blitzing a ton.

Morris has already replaced defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake with Jeff Ulbrich, who is famous for being the interim coach of the Jets last year as well as the father of the kid who prank called Shedeur Sanders during the draft, which led to fines of $250,000 for the Falcons and $100,000 personally for Ulbrich. Guess that’ll teach the 48-year-old coach to protect his data better.

Not to get Atlanta fans worried, but Ulbrich oversaw a Jets defense that blew a league-worst six leads in the fourth quarter in 2024. But this is coach Morris’ side of the ball, and he had to get better playmakers to run his system.

The Falcons certainly listened in the draft. They used the No. 15 pick on edge rusher Jalon Walker, a Georgia defender with a great athletic profile. But the Falcons weren’t done and they traded up to get the No. 26 pick and take James Pearce Jr., a productive sack master from Tennessee where he had 19.5 sacks.

Add a proven NFL pass rusher like Leonard Floyd, who’s had at least 8.5 sacks in each of the last five seasons, and the Falcons should have much better options up front to rush the passer. It also goes together with the offense where if they are better at getting leads, then they can pin their ears back and hunt the quarterbacks with these new players.

The Falcons did say goodbye to defensive tackle Grady Jarrett after a decade with the team, but one could argue he peaked five years ago. Besides, didn’t they use 2024’s second-round pick on Ruke Orhorhoro as his future replacement? It’s time to step up, Ruke. The Falcons needed new playmakers on the edges and that’s what they hopefully got. At least one of those picks should be a hit, and ideally both for Morris’ defense.

For the rest of the defense, the team used a third-round pick on safety Xavier Watts as a potential starter down the road. Middle linebacker Divine Deablo comes over from the Raiders. They still have safety Jesse Bates and their best player in the secondary remains corner A.J. Terrell.

It does not have the makings of a great defense unless that trio of Floyd, Walker, and Pearce really pop right away, but it should be an improvement over last year.

Best Bets for the 2025 Falcons   

For as much as I hated Atlanta’s process in getting Penix last year, there’s some irony in him being the main reason I am picking this team to make the playoffs in 2025. Would be lying if I didn’t add it’s just a gamble on someone new stepping up in the NFC South to dethrone the Buccaneers, the Falcons are long overdue for a postseason trip, and a new quarterback is the easiest way to get that result. It helps that Penix held his own last year in limited action.

But before I can confidently pick Atlanta to get the job done this year, what about the schedule? Does it look favorable like it did in recent years? The odds favor the Falcons to finish with a losing record at under 8.5 wins (-135 at FanDuel), so maybe I’m jumping the gun here. Let’s look at the schedule:

  • Arguably the game of the year is in Week 1 at home with Tampa Bay, the main competition in the NFC South. The Bucs likely won’t have Chris Godwin available, but they still have a ton of weapons, so it’s the ultimate test right away for Penix and Morris, who will have to hope Kirk Cousins wasn’t their only advantage against this team in 2024.
  • A trip to Minnesota in Week 2 for Sunday Night Football is another marquee game that’s putting Penix under the national spotlight against a complex defense, so the chances of this team starting 2-0 are very poor. Need to at least go 1-1 though.
  • A Week 3 trip to Carolina is winnable and the Falcons must do a really good job in those games with the Saints and Panthers this year as both teams still look heavily flawed.
  • Week 4 is a rematch with Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, another tough NFC game before an early Week 5 bye.
  • The Falcons get an extra day as they’ll host the Bills on Monday night, so at least they get their toughest AFC opponent at home after a long bye.
  • Two road games on Sunday night in the first seven weeks? Does the NFL have high expectations for this team too? A trip to the 49ers is a tough game.
  • That’s a pretty difficult first six games, especially in the context that the Panthers open the season with seven straight losing teams from last year. However, it eases up after that.
  • In Weeks 8-14, the Falcons will play the Dolphins, Patriots, Colts, Panthers, Saints, Jets, and Seahawks, who combined for six losing records and zero playoff appearances last year, so they’ll need to clean up in this middle stretch.
  • The Week 15 game is the rematch in Tampa Bay, and it’s on a short week (Thursday night), so getting at least that split and Week 1 win is extra important.
  • Week 16 is a trip to Arizona, a winnable game that won’t be easy.
  • The Falcons host the Rams on a Monday night in Week 17, so that could be a showdown if Matthew Stafford and company are doing well as expected.
  • Hosting the Saints to cap it off in Week 18, so that’s probably the easiest division game they’ll get all year.

I wish the schedule’s challenges were a little more spread out as it wouldn’t be a shock to see a 3-3 or even 2-4 start here. But I’m putting my faith in Penix having a breakout year with a better defense to get this team to a winning record. My favorite Atlanta pick is over 8.5 wins for better than even money. I’m less confident about the division, but the gut is going that direction as Tampa just doesn’t feel like a team ready to step up to the next tier, so there’s always going to be that chance for someone to catch them in the NFC South.

I’ll explain more about the Buccaneers on Thursday when we wrap up the NFC South previews. But give me the Falcons to end the playoff drought and for Bijan Robinson to be a good value pick for Offensive Player of the Year. Only add Penix as an extreme dark horse for MVP to award parlays you throw a very low investment on.

  • NFL Pick: Atlanta Falcons over 8.5 wins (+110) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Michael Penix over 3400.5 passing yards (-114) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Bijan Robinson to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year (+1600) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Atlanta Falcons to win NFC South  (+210) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar20/08/2025 - 09:01 am