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Carolina Panthers 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Is Year 3 Now or Never Time for Bryce Young?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar19/08/2025 - 11:20 am
Bryce Young #9 of the Carolina Panthers runs off the field after winning his game against the New Orleans Saints
(Photo by Matt Kelley/Getty Images)

The Carolina Panthers are trying to shake out of one of the NFL’s worst losing stretches as they’ve lost double-digit games in each of the last six seasons since 2019. Only two teams have ever had longer streaks in NFL history:

The good news is 60% of those teams didn’t extend their streak to Year 7. The bad news is finishing 7-9 or .500 still isn’t ideal. But the Panthers would gladly take any improvement in coach Dave Canales’ second season.

It’s also a huge third season for quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. He’s been outplayed by No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud from that draft class to this point, and he may be running out of time to turn things on.

But Young was playing better late in the 2024 season, the Panthers added more offensive talent around him, and the NFC South remains a winnable division. Let’s see what to make of the Panthers, Young’s Year 3 breakout potential, and their best bets for the 2025 season.

Previously on PANTHERS: From Canceled After Two Episodes to Renewed for Season 3

You have to give Dave Canales credit. Not many coaches, let alone a rookie coach, would have the chutzpah to bench a No. 1 overall pick at quarterback just two games into his second season. But that was the big move in Carolina last year after a poor 0-2 start where the offense scored 13 points, and Young was averaging 4.4 yards per attempt, shades of the worst of his rookie season.

Veteran Andy Dalton replaced him and immediately lit up the Raiders in a victory. But while the offense was better with Dalton, that success was short-lived once the team had to play opponents better than the Raiders.

Canales brought Young back as the starter in Week 8 against Denver, a tough road game. But Young was able to lead a game-winning touchdown drive against the Saints before winning an ugly game overseas against the Giants.

But Young played his best over the last seven games when he threw 11 touchdowns to 3 interceptions, averaged a more respectable 6.9 yards per attempt (still a hair below league average), and the team scored more points.

It was really the games against the Super Bowl teams that stood out. Young was able to lead the Panthers to 11 points in the fourth quarter to tie Kansas City before Patrick Mahomes did what he does on a game-winning field goal drive in a 30-27 loss. Then in Philadelphia, Young had what should have been the game-winning touchdown pass in the final minute, but rookie wideout Xavier Legette dropped the ball and the Panthers lost 22-16.

That wasn’t his only drop as a rookie down the field, but that was the biggest. The Panthers also lost a 26-23 game in overtime against Tampa Bay, another playoff opponent, after the defense wasted a go-ahead touchdown pass by Young with 30 seconds left, then Chuba Hubbard fumbled in overtime in game-winning field goal range.

Those were three losses, but at least it showed Young could hang right in there with some of the best teams in the league. He also finished strong in a 44-38 overtime win in Atlanta in the first of what will hopefully be many meetings with Michael Penix Jr.

Young’s benching seemed to have a positive impact on his game, because those first two games on top of a bad rookie season were not worthy of a starting job. He couldn’t overcome the flaws on the team around him, including a defense that ranked 32nd on third down as well as dead last at stopping the run.

They tried to cancel Young early, but the show goes on. For now.

Bryce Young and the Panthers’ Hope for a Year 3 Breakout Quarterback

NFL Panthers Bryce Young

A fact worth repeating every NFL season is that most franchise quarterbacks prove their worth within two seasons of starting games:

  • Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Jayden Daniels, etc. all etched their names in the record books as standout rookie starters.
  • Hall of Fame-worthy quarterbacks like Roger Staubach (1971), Joe Montana (1981), Kurt Warner (1999), and Tom Brady (2001) all won a Super Bowl the first season they became the full-time starter, and players like Patrick Mahomes (2018) and Lamar Jackson (2019) were young MVP winners.
  • Some players who initially had to ride the bench proved immediately that they were Pro Bowl-caliber starters, including Ken Stabler (1973), Boomer Esiason (1985), Mark Rypien (1988), Brett Favre (1992), Philip Rivers (2006), Tony Romo (2006), Aaron Rodgers (2008), and Jordan Love (2023).
  • Quarterbacks drafted in the top two picks like John Elway, Drew Bledsoe, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Joe Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence all had their team in the playoffs by their second season as the starter.

But the example that keeps giving hope for late bloomers in today’s NFL is Josh Allen in Buffalo. He had a bad rookie season in 2018, made the playoffs on the back of his defense in 2019, but he vastly improved as a passer in 2020 and had a true breakout in Year 3. Ever since then, he’s turned into one of the best in the game.

Allen is the best example of a Year 3 breakout quarterback, but he’s not the first:

  • Troy Aikman’s first two seasons in Dallas (1989-90) were not good, but after the team acquired so much talent in the draft, including running back Emmitt Smith, they made the playoffs in 1991, Aikman made the Pro Bowl that year, and they soon won three Super Bowls.
  • Matthew Stafford had his breakout season in 2011 for the Lions, but this is asterisk worthy as he was injured in each of his first two seasons, including in 2010 when he was limited to three games.
  • Maybe the example dearest to Young’s heart is the vertically-challenged Drew Brees, who broke out in 2004, his fourth season in the league but only his third as the Chargers’ starter after he was benched in 2003 for Doug Flutie. The team drafted Philip Rivers in 2004, and Brees took off from there and was great until his retirement.

With these four examples, including Allen, one may want to point out that extenuating circumstances follow each. Sure, not everyone can replicate the Herschel Walker trade and build a dynasty like Dallas did, but we’re talking about more unique things no team could ever duplicate by itself:

  • 2004 saw a boom in passing statistics around the league after the NFL had to remind officials that illegal contact after 5 yards exists and is a penalty following the way the Patriots and Panthers played defense in the 2003 postseason.
  • 2011 was another boom in passing statistics after the lockout truncated the offseason schedule and defenses were well behind the offenses, especially early on when someone like Cam Newton started his career with back-to-back 400-yard games and 374 yards in his fourth game, numbers he wouldn’t reach again until 2020.
  • Of course, 2020 was the COVID-affected season with empty seats in quiet stadiums that led to the highest-scoring season in NFL history at 24.8 points per game per team, a full 1.4 points above the next-closest season.

So, you can craft the narratives that the drafting of Rivers lit a fire under Brees, Stafford finally stayed healthy in 2011, and Allen got a real No. 1 wide receiver in Stefon Diggs to help him out, but maybe just maybe three of the most favorable passing climates in NFL history helped them break out in those seasons.

Young has no such advantages in 2025 as there is no big rule change unless virtual measurements are going to sustain drives that used to end with the ball erroneously marked short. There was no lockout either, and let’s hope there’s not another pandemic, but you never know when RFK Jr. is in charge of public health.

But Young does face an uphill battle, and that’s not a knock on his 5’10” height. Even in his improved second season, Young still completed 60.9% of his passes in a league that’s completing 65.3% and an offense where Andy Dalton completed 66.3%. Yes, some drops hurt Young, but Dalton’s drop rate was actually 1.5 percentage points higher.

It was more about untimely drops for Young such as the Legette touchdown in Philadelphia. With a few more big plays, he could have done better than 6.3 yards per attempt (YPA), which ranked 34th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks in 2024. Even if we ignore the games before Young regained his starting job, he was 6.6 to end the season, so he’s going to need to bring that up.

To look at things another way, Young is one of eight quarterbacks in NFL history to throw at least 300 passes in each of his first two years and have an adjusted net yards per pass attempt index (ANY/A+) under 90 in both seasons. ANY/A+ is the metric at Pro Football Reference that adjusts yards per pass attempt for touchdown passes, interceptions, sacks, and the index (+) adjusts it for the league average that year. A score of 100 would be average, so Young’s seasons (67 and 88) are definitely below average.

But here’s the other seven quarterbacks to start their career with two such seasons:

  • Jeff George, 1990-91 Colts
  • Joey Harrington, 2002-03 Lions
  • Vince Young, 2006-07 Titans
  • Sam Bradford, 2010-11 Rams
  • Geno Smith, 2013-14 Jets
  • Sam Darnold, 2018-19 Jets
  • Daniel Jones, 2019-20 Giants

Not a promising list for stardom. Vince Young peaked immediately in 2006, and while everyone else saw better days later, it wasn’t until many years later when Geno Smith (2022 Seahawks) and Sam Darnold (2024 Vikings) truly had their breakout moments. Going into his third season in 2015, Geno had his jaw broken after a teammate punched him, which derailed his career in New York.

Let’s slice the data up one more way, breaking down the only 16 quarterbacks to throw at least 750 passes and have an ANY/A+ under 90 through two seasons:

  • NFL Successes (2): Donovan McNabb (Eagles), Josh Allen (Bills)
  • NFL Busts (6): Rick Mirer (Seahawks), Christian Ponder (Vikings), Joey Harrington (Lions), Sam Bradford (Rams)*, Brandon Weeden (Browns), Davis Mills (Texans)
  • Made the Playoffs But Still Not a Good QB (3): Mark Sanchez (2009-10 Jets), Blake Bortles (2017 Jaguars), Daniel Jones (2022 Giants)
  • Had to Excel for a Different Team Later (4): Jeff George (1994 Falcons), Ryan Tannehill (2019 Titans), Geno Smith (2022 Seahawks), Sam Darnold (2024 Vikings)
  • To Be Determined (1): Bryce Young (Panthers)

*One could argue Sam Bradford exceled later for the Eagles (2015) and Vikings (2016-17), but I think he was always overrated and pulled off some of the biggest heists in NFL history for the money he made from teams.

Given the huge draft capital investment the Panthers made in Young to get him with that top pick in the 2023 draft, he better be no worse than the third-best quarterback on this list behind McNabb and Allen or there’s going to be massive disappointment with him.

But history is not on Young’s side to deliver in Carolina, unless Tetairoa McMillan is the second coming of Muhsin Muhammad, or if Xavier Legette eats an undercooked raccoon from Raccoon City that starts the next pandemic that hamstrings defenses around the National Football League.

Carolina Panthers Offseason Review

The Panthers are bringing back Canales’ two main coordinators from last year, making them the only team in the NFC South in 2025 to retain its head coach, offensive/defensive coordinators, and starting quarterback. For that matter, the Commanders, Packers, Rams, Cardinals, and Panthers are the only NFC teams to leave those four roles unchanged this year.

But who is coming along to make their jobs go smoother this season?

Panthers Offense: New Weapons

It makes sense why you’d get a short quarterback a tall receiver. The Panthers used their first-round pick on Arizona’s 6’4” Tetairoa McMillan, who many experts had ranked as the best wide receiver in the 2025 class not named Travis Hunter. With that size, he should show up in the red zone, but maybe his best value will be getting the team down there if he can make this type of play with Young in games that count:

You also can’t rule out Legette improving in his second year after the Panthers used a first-round pick on him too. They still have the reliable Adam Thielen in the slot, and they even gave Hunter Renfrow a shot to make another NFL roster as a potential Thielen replacement if he can get back on track. The tight ends are still a bit random as Tommy Tremble will try to come back from injury and Ja’Tavion Sanders could be a sneaky second-year breakout player.

The running backs look solid after Carolina realized Miles Sanders was a bust for them from the Eagles and they started feeding the ball to Chuba Hubbard, who had 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns in 15 games. He also had four fumbles, so he needs to clean that up some. But they brought over Rico Dowdle from the Cowboys, who can catch a little too, and they drafted Travis Etienne’s brother Trevor in the fourth round.

We’re more than 20 teams deep in our 2025 previews, and the Panthers might be the first team where you can say they’re bringing back the entire offensive line. That’s a good thing since it was a very solid, improved unit that added guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis in 2024. The player they’ll hope to keep healthy is center Austin Corbett, a former guard who has been limited to just nine games over the last two seasons due to injury.

These are not massive changes to the offense, and frankly it comes down to Young’s progression and adapting to these very young wide receivers like McMillan and Legette. But Dave Canales has been a wide receiver guru in his past stops, so hopefully he cooks up something good to get these players playing at a higher level right away with Young, who cut down on his sacks last year behind the improved line.

But adding McMillan is not like adding a true game changer like Randy Moss (rare height/speed combo) or Ja’Marr Chase (YAC skills and Joe Burrow chemistry), so you shouldn’t expect a huge leap in Carolina’s passing game unless those second-year players like Legette and the tight end Sanders are also ready to break out at the same time as Young.

Bryce Young #9 of the Carolina Panthers and Tetairoa McMillan #4
(Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

Defense: Finding Playmakers

For third-year defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, it’s about finding playmakers after the way this defense has been stripped for parts over the years. They traded pass rusher Brian Burns to the Giants in 2024, safety Jeremy Chinn went to Washington last year, and linebacker Shaq Thompson is in Buffalo after a decade with the Panthers.

If you held people at gunpoint and asked them to name starters on this Carolina defense, you better bring a lot of body bags with you. Hopefully they’ll remember that Derrick Brown (season-ending meniscus injury in Week 1 last year) and Jaycee Horn are still there, but this defense has brought in a ton of transplants after the Panthers ranked last in yards and points allowed in 2024. The Giants were the only team all season that the Panthers held under 22 points.

Carolina is expected to have five new defensive starters that just joined the team as veterans, and none of them are exactly eye-popping value: nose tackle Bobby Brown (Rams), defensive end Tershawn Wharton (Chiefs), edge Patrick Jones (Vikings), inside linebacker Christian Rozeboom (Rams), and safety Tre’von Moehrig (Raiders).

A’Shawn Robinson is still there for defensive line depth after he tied with Jadeveon Clowney for the team lead with 5.5 sacks, but the team did not bring Clowney back. The Panthers must find some pass rush here, and they used their second and third-round picks on a couple of edge rushers in Nic Scourton (Texas A&M) and Princely Umanmielen (Ole Miss), so maybe one of them can be a surprise value this season.

It’s hard to see where the pass rush will come from, and it’s a lot on Horn to hold things down in the secondary. This is a division with some elite talent at the skill positions, so the bottom-ranked defense that’s going to be a major work in progress with all of these new (largely forgettable) faces may not see a huge improvement in 2025.

That’s just more pressure on the offense to deliver.

Best Bets for the 2025 Panthers   

We’ve established I’m skeptical of Young having a big breakout year in 2025. However, he threw 15 touchdowns in 12 starts last year, they’ve upgraded his weapons, and he might be in a lot of shootouts with that defense dragging the team down. You never know how a player will react when his future is on the line too, so Young going over 18.5 passing touchdowns is one of my favorite quarterback props this year. If he hits under that, chances are the Panthers have a new quarterback for 2026.

The defense is also reason enough to think this team won’t do better than third in the NFC South, which won’t be good enough for the playoffs. But can the Panthers finish over 6.5 wins? Let’s check out the schedule since there is a good bit of info there.

The 2025 Panthers open with seven straight games against teams that had a losing record last year: Jaguars, Cardinals, Falcons, Patriots, Dolphins, Cowboys, Jets. Obviously, some of those teams are going to be better this year, some may have a winning record, and several look to be in better shape than the Panthers. But if there was a path to Carolina starting well, gaining confidence, and finishing over 6.5 wins, the schedule is set up great for that.

Sure, they face the Bills and Packers after that, but those are the only teams on the schedule that won more than 10 games last year. The Panthers could start 4-3 with this schedule, they should be favored at home to beat the Saints (potential sweep) in Week 10, and upsetting the Rams or Seahawks in Carolina is always possible. Remember, this team was right there at the end with the Chiefs and Eagles last year.

While I may not be sold on a big turnaround in Carolina since they’re relying on very young wide receivers and random defensive vets to do it for a yet-to-arrive quarterback, I’ll buy this schedule to help them finish at least 7-10 and hit the over.

Will that be enough to give a vote of confidence in Canales, Young, and Evero for 2026? Probably not for the defensive coach.

  • NFL Pick: Carolina Panthers over 6.5 wins (-130) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Bryce Young over 18.5 passing touchdowns (-102) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar19/08/2025 - 11:20 am