Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2024 Conference Championship Games

Scott Kacsmar24/01/2025 - 05:43 pm

ORCHARD PARK, NY - SEPTEMBER 17: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after a play during the second quarter of an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Highmark Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. — (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

The NFL playoffs have reached Championship Sunday with a couple of huge games with history at stake. We’ll see if Jayden Daniels can become the first rookie quarterback to reach the Super Bowl in the NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia. Then we’ll get the ninth meeting between the Bills and Chiefs since 2020 in the AFC Championship Game with the three-peat on the line. We have plenty of NFL picks for both games.

In recapping our divisional round picks, the tight end parlay (+539) hit, and Travis Kelce also broke 70 yards in a hurry. Terry McLaurin scored a touchdown in epic fashion in Detroit too. Unfortunately, the Texans somehow didn’t break 7.5 points by halftime, DeAndre Hopkins didn’t even catch a pass, and that Ravens-Bills game just went over on the last Baltimore drive. But we’ll take the parlay hit every week.

With two games, we have some contradictory parlays below with one showing a Buffalo-favorable outcome and another that goes the way of the Chiefs. As always, pick out the parts you like the most and get creative with just three games left in the 2024 NFL season.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same-game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick-off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Come on and Tease Me Like You Do

Our first pick is a 4-point teaser for both games:

Commanders +10.5 (teased from +6.5) at Eagles
Bills-Chiefs Under 52.5 Points (teased from 48.5)

The Commanders have only lost one game all year by more than 8 points, and that was back in Week 1 in Tampa Bay (37-20). They tied their season low with 18 points in Philadelphia in Week 11, but that was a short week and their first look at this Vic Fangio defense. Jayden Daniels threw five touchdowns against the Eagles in his last matchup.

The Eagles always look like a team that should win by two touchdowns, but they struggle to put teams away. Even last week against the Rams, they were up 28-15 and were nearly defeated on the last drive before getting a stop. Washington is playing too well with too much confidence to lose by more than 10 here. I also don’t see enough from Jalen Hurts this postseason to think this should be an easy win for the Eagles.

As for the AFC game, these offenses might simply have too few possessions to have a huge scoring game. They both can convert third downs and shrink the game. Their last game ended 30-21, so that’s 51 points. Their last playoff game was 27-24, another clean offensive game, and that’s another one with 51 points.

Even last week, the Bills and Ravens combined for a 27-25 final (52 points). I think you see another classic score in this game like 23-20, 24-20, 27-24, etc. The Chiefs almost never score 30 nor do they allow it to anyone but Buffalo the last two years when their starters are playing.

I’ll take the under 52.5 here with the 4-point tease.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Teaser Parlay – Commanders +10.5 & Bills-Chiefs Under 52.5 Points (+110 at FanDuel)

2. Four for 40 (Yards)

Next, here’s a 4-leg parlay for four top skill players this weekend to break 40 receiving or rushing yards:

A.J. Brown 40+ Receiving Yards
Terry McLaurin 40+ Receiving Yards
James Cook 40+ Rushing Yards
Travis Kelce 40+ Receiving Yards

It sounds simple, but there is always risk involved. However, with such big games and stakes, these players have to produce for their teams to win these games.

A.J. Brown is way too good to have 24 yards on 3 catches in two playoff games. The Eagles have to get the passing game going, and in the last game against Washington (Week 16) when Jalen Hurts was concussed, Brown had 97 yards on 15 targets (season-high). He had 65 yards in the first game too. He should be able to get to 40 here. He did it 11 times in his first 13 games this year.

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown — Credit: Bill Streicher-Getty Images

Terry McLaurin has been great this year and has at least 62 yards and a touchdown in three straight road games. He only had 10 yards in Philadelphia in Week 11, but the Commanders moved him around more in the rematch to get away from Quinyon Mitchell (injured Sunday), and he had 60 yards and a score. McLaurin will need to be heavily involved again here for the Commanders.

James Cook had just 9 carries for a season-low 20 yards against the Chiefs at home in Week 11. However, he’s already gone from a 39-yard game in Baltimore to 67 yards last week. He’s playing very well, and the Chiefs have allowed at least 139 rushing yards in 4-of-5 games down the stretch here. They are not as dominant as they were earlier this season against the run.

Finally, the easiest leg should be Travis Kelce, who’s had 70 receiving yards in 14 straight playoff games, twice as long as anyone else in history. This could be his last home game ever too if he retires, so he’ll make up for only having 8 yards last time against the Bills.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – A.J. Brown 40+ Receiving Yards & Terry McLaurin 40+ Receiving Yards & James Cook 40+ Rushing Yards & Travis Kelce 40+ Receiving Yards (+176 at FanDuel)

HOUSTON, TEXAS - DECEMBER 18: Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on December 18, 2022 in Houston, Texas. — (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

3. Commanders at Eagles: In Jayden We Trust

There has to be some season where a rookie quarterback leads a team to the Super Bowl. It happened a few times back in the day before they had a real playoff system and Super Bowl with Sammy Baugh (1937 Redskins) and Bob Waterfield (1945 Rams) leading their teams to championships as rookies.

I like Daniels to get it done on the road. He’s already seen the Philadelphia defense twice, he’s gotten better against them, and he won the last game with five touchdown passes and another clutch game-winning drive in the final seconds.

LANDOVER, MARYLAND - OCTOBER 27: Jayden Daniels #5 of the Washington Commanders looks to pass the ball against the Chicago Bears during the second quarter at Northwest Stadium on October 27, 2024 in Landover, Maryland. — (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

He’s also getting takeaways this postseason from his defense, which has six takeaways and counting. The Eagles haven’t turned the ball over in their last four games since losing to Washington, so maybe they are due for some with the way Jalen Hurts was struggling behind his line last week.

Saquon Barkley will get his, but the Commanders already beat them with him going off for big yardage in Week 16. I trust Daniels to get the job done, Dan Quinn has been to the Super Bowl before with the 2016 Falcons, and the Eagles are a vulnerable team right now.

Hell, the Eagles nearly lost at home this year to the Browns (with Deshaun Watson playing terrible ball), Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, and Bryce Young had them beat with a great touchdown throw that Xavier Legette, the raccoon eater, dropped in the last minute.

Even last week, the Eagles nearly blew a 13-point lead in the final 5:00. I don’t know if Washington gets the job done like the 2005 Steelers and 2010 Packers, two No. 6 seeds, did when they went the distance to a championship. They may not have the defense to survive the Chiefs or Bills. But I am going to take them to get past the Eagles and represent the NFC in Super Bowl LIX.

Put the best rookie quarterback in NFL history in the Super Bowl. The real MVP candidate in this game.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Commanders ML (+235 at FanDuel)

4. Bills at Chiefs: Rookie Receiver Showcase

This game has a couple of high draft picks at wide receiver who could have been on opposite teams had the draft gone differently. I think both make their impact in different ways in this game.

Keon Coleman has been quiet with a 5-yard catch in each playoff game. But he missed the Week 11 matchup, and he could be a big-play threat. He’s had a 20-yard catch in 9-of-15 games this season, so he could hit his over on one good snap. He’s also gone over 25.5 yards in 6-of-7 road games this season. With Amari Cooper giving the Bills so little, Coleman is a sneaky good option in this matchup.

Xavier Worthy has six straight games with at least five catches when playing with Mahomes. He was the leading receiver in Buffalo, and he’s played better ball since that game. In fact, I thought about betting on him to have a 20 or 30-yard catch in this one since he had that misplayed ball at the sideline in Buffalo on a huge play. But the Chiefs have been scheming to get him shorter throws in recent weeks, so he should be good for another handful of catches.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Keon Coleman Over 20.5 Receiving Yards & Xavier Worthy 5+ Receptions (+201 at FanDuel)

5. The Saquon Barkley-Travis Kelce Parlay

Next, we have a 4-leg parlay that is all about Saquon Barkley and Travis Kelce:

Saquon Barkley 110+ Rushing Yards
Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Travis Kelce 70+ Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Saquon Barkley has been incredibly consistent this year, and just consider what he’s done in rematches already in terms of staying consistent with rushing yards:

Packers: 109 and 119 yards
Cowboys: 66 and 167 yards
Rams: 255 and 205 yards
Commanders: 146 and 150 yards

Only Dallas was able to shut him down, and that was in a first matchup. He owned them in the rematch. Barkley has been great against the Commanders, and we saw Jahmyr Gibbs was tearing them up too. The Lions just couldn’t stop turning the ball over.

Barkley’s over/under for rushing yards opened at 130.5 this week, which many believe is the highest line ever for a running back. I can’t confirm that one as I imagine some of those old Jim Brown or O.J. Simpson lines would have been high if they had prop bets back then.

But the Barkley line has gone down to 125.5. I’m not going to take the vig and play it down a yard to 125+ at FanDuel, nor am I confident enough to take the over given that I have Washington winning the game. But I think with his big-play ability he still gets his share, and I’ll confidently back a line of 110+ yards and a touchdown for him.

As for Travis Kelce, let’s just acknowledge this could be his last game at Arrowhead should he decide to retire. He hasn’t said anything yet, but Mahomes addressed it already, and it makes sense. A three-peat would be an excellent way to retire on top and do your thing with acting and Taylor Swift. Could easily see him hanging them up if this year ends well as he has nothing left to prove in this game.

That’s why I think Kelce balls out and makes up for his 8 yards on 4 targets performance in Week 11 in Buffalo. It was like the Chiefs purposely held back on him doing much damage so they could unleash him in the playoffs. He was the driving force behind the passing game in Buffalo in the playoffs last year, and he looks even more important this year based on the Houston game. I’m all in for Kelce continuing his 70-yard streak and scoring another postseason touchdown.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Saquon Barkley 110+ Rushing Yards & Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Travis Kelce 70+ Receiving Yards & Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+506 at FanDuel)

LANDOVER, MD - DECEMBER 22: Saquon Barkley #26 of the Philadelphia Eagles carries the ball against the Washington Commanders during the first half of the game at Northwest Stadium on December 22, 2024 in Landover, Maryland. — (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

6. Bills at Chiefs: The Buffalo Script

We have a 3-leg parlay that is the script to a Buffalo victory at Arrowhead this week:

Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Patrick Mahomes 1+ Interception
Bills ML

We said the Chiefs haven’t turned it over in eight games, an NFL record. Their only giveaways in the last 10 games were two Patrick Mahomes interceptions to start and end the Week 11 game in Buffalo. They have a tendency to force him into some mistakes, and while he’s cleaned it up in the playoffs, he’s due for a pick if we’re being honest. We saw the Bills force Lamar Jackson into his first multi-turnover game this season last week.

So, winning the turnover battle is going to be key for Buffalo, and I think they intercept Mahomes once here. Then Josh Allen needs to be an aggressive runner, and he’ll certainly see the ball near the goal line in short-yardage situations like he has most of the year. It’s easy to see him scoring another rushing touchdown in this game, and I’d even advocate for something tricky that could score as a receiving touchdown for him too.

If the Bills are getting turnovers and using Allen’s legs, that should be enough for the victory. But another way to think of this game is the officiating controversy this week with the Chiefs. At least, the media’s perception there is a controversy of them getting favorable calls after a couple of 15-yard flags for hits to Mahomes’ head last week.

That’s why I don’t think the Chiefs are going to get a good whistle this week. The refs might miss some obvious calls, and good luck getting any roughing call or anything really questionable. That just helps the Bills even more, and they already had the game in Week 11 when the Chiefs had 57 penalty yards to 24 for Buffalo.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Patrick Mahomes 1+ Interception & Bills ML (+500 at Bet365)

7. NFL Championship Sunday Parlay

Finally, we have a 6-leg parlay with something for each team this Sunday:

Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Jayden Daniels 40+ Rushing Yards
Dallas Goedert 25+ Receiving Yards
Patrick Mahomes 3+ Passing Touchdowns
Khalil Shakir 5+ Receptions
Bills +13.5 Alternate Spread
Chiefs ML

I already picked Washington to win, so that’s probably going to require Jayden Daniels putting on a dual-threat show. He threw 5 touchdown passes his last game against the Eagles, and he’s thrown multiple scores in the last seven games he’s finished.

The Commanders haven’t been impressive with their running backs against the Eagles, so I’d expect Daniels to rush for a fair share of yards too. In fact, he has 29 carries in the postseason alone and had 51 tough yards in Detroit. He had 81 in the last meeting with Philly.

Ask who the best receiver has been for the Eagles this postseason and the answer is tight end Dallas Goedert. He’s had 56 and 47 yards the last two games, which is big given the lack of yards from the Eagles’ passing game. Goedert missed the most recent Washington matchup but he had 61 yards at home in Week 11. He could provide a safety blanket for Hurts this Sunday.

Patrick Mahomes already threw 3 touchdowns in Buffalo in Week 11. He played well after the pick on the opening drive. He always seems to up his game in the playoffs against Buffalo no matter what the first matchup looked like. I think the Chiefs save some of their best red-zone plays for this one and Mahomes gets 3 touchdowns.

Khalil Shakir has been busy in the playoffs with 6 catches in each game. He had a season-high 12 targets in Week 11 against the Chiefs, and he caught 8 balls in that game for 70 yards. He also had 7 catches in last year’s playoff meeting, and he’s a great option that can get open quickly on short throws for Allen to beat the blitz with. Five catches shouldn’t be a problem.

But I’m ending with what has been the best bet all season: Chiefs winning a game by 1-13 points. In fact, the Chiefs just tied the 2003 Patriots for the most wins in a season by 1-13 points with their 14th against Houston in the divisional round. The Bills rarely lose by more than two touchdowns, so that feels like the right bet for this epic matchup.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Jayden Daniels 40+ Rushing Yards & Dallas Goedert 25+ Receiving Yards & Patrick Mahomes 3+ Passing Touchdowns & Khalil Shakir 5+ Receptions & Bills +13.5 & Chiefs ML (+3011 at FanDuel)

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