Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 1

Scott Kacsmar05/09/2025 - 07:13 am

The NFL is officially back in 2025 after an exciting Cowboys-Eagles game last night. We’re also back with weekly NFL picks to help with your bets, starting with Friday night’s game in Brazil between the Chiefs and Chargers. There are other interesting games like Giants-Commanders, Vikings-Bears, Ravens-Bills, and Buccaneers-Falcons.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Giants at Commanders: Post Labor Day Fireworks

I’m so fascinated to see this game as we talked about the Giants turning into an offensive juggernaut this preseason. Can even an ounce of that offense that produced 345 net passing yards and over 36 points per game in August show up here against a Washington defense that still looks iffy? It’ll be up to Russell Wilson to deliver.

But you can usually count on Jayden Daniels to produce. The over was 13-7 in Washington games last year, and he led 7 field goal drives on 7 total possessions in his 2nd career start against this team. You don’t want to see that again as you want touchdowns to hit the over. But even in the rematch, Washington won 27-22 in a game where Daniel Jones was the quarterback.

The Giants look better on offense right now, and the Commanders have some new pieces like Deebo Samuel, a rookie running back who wants to be called Bill, and Laremy Tunsil at left tackle.

Let’s start the season with something simple and take the over to hit.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Over 45.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

2. Raiders at Patriots: Rookie Running Back Showdown

It’s an interesting game in New England with Mike Vrabel, Josh McDaniels (revenge game?), and Pete Carroll all getting another shot at coaching in this league. But another headline is the rookie running backs with Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Ashton Jeanty making his debut after he was the Heisman Trophy runner-up.

But don’t sleep on TreVeyon Henderson (+1400 at FanDuel) winning that award if he gets enough touches. He has explosive, big-play ability too. I was tempted to take him to score a touchdown against a Vegas defense that doesn’t offer much outside of Maxx Crosby, but I could just see Rhamondre Stevenson sniping his shots from the 1-yard line.

However, I will take Henderson to go over 38.5 rushing yards as he could do that in the blink of an eye given the opportunity. I also think Vrabel’s defense steps up to the challenge at home and causes some problems for Geno Smith, and the Patriots start this season with a win.

You know, anything to make Bill Belichick’s week feel even worse down in North Carolina.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – TreVeyon Henderson Over 38.5 Rushing Yards & Patriots ML (+157 at FanDuel)

3. Running Back Parlay for Your NFL Picks

We have a 4-leg parlay where the theme is running backs who should score touchdowns in wins against bad teams:

James Conner (Cardinals) Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Cardinals ML vs. Saints
Chase Brown (Bengals) Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Bengals ML vs. Browns

The Cardinals are absolutely a better team than the Saints. Heck, most NFL teams are in 2025. But they need to win this game against an outmatched defense, and James Conner is usually a good bet to score for them.

Joe Burrow has had his struggles with the Browns in his career, but that wasn’t the case in 2024. The Bengals also saw running back Chase Brown emerge as a pretty good dual threat as he can catch the ball too. He’s taken over as their lead back and is a favorite to score in this game. Joe Flacco could always carve up this defense, but the Bengals know the importance of a hot start and they can’t let another winnable Week 1 game slip away.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – James Conner Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Cardinals ML & Chase Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Bengals ML (+322 at FanDuel)

4. Buccaneers at Falcons: NFC South Showdown

We have a 4-leg parlay for the big NFC South showdown in Atlanta:

Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Bucky Irving Anytme Touchdown Scorer
Michael Penix Jr. 200+ Passing Yards
Baker Mayfield 200+ Passing Yards

These teams played a thriller in Atlanta last year on Thursday Night Football. This one also has a chance to be special as it’s important for the division race with the Falcons trying to end their playoff drought.

I picked Bijan Robinson to win the Offensive Player of the Year award, so I think he can definitely score a touchdown in this game. Bucky Irving can do the same for the Bucs now that he’s established himself as their best running back over Rachaad White. There should be plenty of touchdowns to go around in this game.

Then we have both quarterbacks throwing for 200 yards in this one. Penix was showing he could do that as a rookie already, and this is a defense that Kirk Cousins torched for 500 yards at home last year. Granted, Baker Mayfield only had 180 yards that night, but he also had just 24 attempts. Look for him to throw more and get over 200 yards in what should be one of the most exciting Week 1 games and among the best for offensive numbers.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Michael Penix 200+ Passing Yards & Baker Mayfield 200+ Passing Yards (+334 at FanDuel)

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JANUARY 05: Bijan Robinson #7 of the Atlanta Falcons celebrates after scoring a rushing touchdown with teammate Michael Penix Jr. #9 during the second quarter against the Carolina Panthers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on January 05, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. — (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

5. Vikings at Bears: Ben Johnson’s Debut

We have a 3-leg parlay for Monday night when Ben Johnson makes his coaching debut and J.J. McCarthy starts his first NFL game. But this one is all about Caleb Williams and that offense.

Caleb Williams Over 218.5 Passing Yards
Caleb Williams Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Bears ML

If you go back to Williams’ first game against Brian Flores’ Minnesota defense in Chicago last year, he threw for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns while leading an improbable comeback to force overtime before the Bears lost 30-27. That was even with Matt Eberflus still coaching the team.

That defense in that moment wasn’t too big for Williams to face. Now you go to Monday night and he’s taking over Johnson’s offense that worked so well in Detroit, Johnson knows Minnesota well from division play, and the Bears loaded up on weapons by adding Colston Loveland and Luther Burden in the draft. We’ve seen the offense have some serious success in the preseason, if it’s worth anything.

But now it’s about putting that into the real games and getting results. They also upgraded the offensive line around Williams, which was the other huge problem beyond coaching. Defensively, the Bears are solid and they get their own wild card to face in J.J. McCarthy in his first start.

I’m going with my gut that Johnson delivers a home win in his debut with Williams having a nice day with the over in yards and touchdowns through the air.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Caleb Williams Over 218.5 Passing Yards & Caleb Williams Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Bears ML (+318 at FanDuel)

6. Chiefs vs. Chargers: Friday Night in Brazil Parlay

Let’s not forget about the big game in Brazil on Friday night when the Chargers take on the Chiefs. We have a 4-leg parlay for that one:

Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Omarion Hampton Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Patrick Mahomes 225+ Passing Yards
Ladd McConkey 50+ Receiving Yards

With Rashee Rice suspended, Xavier Worthy is basically the WR1 in this offense for six weeks. He scored a touchdown in his first game against the Chargers last year on a deep ball, the game where Rice tore his ACL. He came on late last year and should be even better this season.

Omarion Hampton is the first-round rookie running back for the Chargers, and he sounds like he’ll get the start over veteran Najee Harris, who had a fireworks accident this summer. Hampton is a workhorse back in his own right and could very well score in his debut. Take the over in rushing yards for him if you’re not sold he’s scoring.

We didn’t see Dak Prescott or Jalen Hurts throw for 200 yards on Thursday night in a game that was weirdly high scoring in one half and just a field goal in the other half. Let’s hope for more offense in this one as Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert usually deliver. With the idea that Mahomes is going to push the ball more down the field this year, let’s have him throw for at least 225 yards here.

Ladd McConkey was already Herbert’s best receiver as a rookie, and he’s still easily the best receiver on the team, which drafted Tre Harris and re-signed Keenan Allen. But McConkey missed the last Kansas City game and should be chomping at the bit to get a shot at the AFC champs here. A 50-yard game is modest for him.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Omarion Hampton Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Patrick Mahomes 225+ Passing Yards & Ladd McConkey 50+ Receiving Yards (+784 at FanDuel)

7. Sunday Parlay 8-Piece Combo

Finally, we have an 8-leg parlay for Sunday games that involves a running back scoring a touchdown for the winning team:

Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Colts ML
Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Rams ML
Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Packers ML
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Ravens ML

Dolphins at Colts: It’s hard to believe, but the Colts haven’t won in Week 1 since the 2013 season. I think that finally ends this week, and Jonathan Taylor is a huge part of it to help out quarterback Daniel Jones. The Colts snuck by the Dolphins last year in a 16-10 game without Tua Tagovailoa, and while he’s back, Miami still looks flawed in many places. The Colts have a decent roster and can lean on Taylor in a matchup like this.

Texans at Rams: Los Angeles should be a really solid contender this year with talent on both sides of the ball and a great coach. The Texans are lacking in some key areas, and the Rams are a 3-point home favorite. Kyren Williams has been almost automatic at scoring for this offense, so he should be a safe bet to find the end zone, and look for that front seven to terrorize C.J. Stroud.

Lions at Packers: This is one of Sunday’s biggest games with the NFC North lead up for grabs. The Packers are a 2.5-point favorite and have taken over the odds lead to win the division thanks to the Micah Parsons trade. It sounds like he’s active for this one. But I think Jordan Love plays well, Matthew Golden has a big play, and the Packers nip the Lions at home while Josh Jacobs finds the end zone. A statement game as Green Bay, our NFC champion pick, looks to regain the NFC North crown and more this year.

Ravens at Bills: Great playoff rematch on Sunday night, but let’s remember Lamar vs. Allen games are not passing clinics. Look for the Ravens to avenge January’s loss by protecting the ball better, forcing a turnover or two, and Derrick Henry will pick up where he left off by rushing for at least one touchdown.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Colts ML & Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Rams ML & Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Packers ML & Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Ravens ML (+3692 at FanDuel)

ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 04: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts warms up against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on December 4, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. — (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

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