Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 9

Scott Kacsmar31/10/2025 - 04:08 pm

C.J. Stroud #7 — (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

The NFL has a real blowout trend going on as we’ve reached Week 9. There have been just three games within one score in the fourth quarter since last week after the Ravens blew out Miami, 28-7, last night. But we’d take more blowouts this Sunday if it means games like Colts-Steelers and Chiefs-Bills are nail-biters for our NFL picks below.

In recapping our Week 8 picks, our parlays for the Colts (+299) and Chiefs (+137) hit, and the Eagles finally blew a team out to cover the spread. We got 3-of-5 on the touchdown scorer parlay, and Stefon Diggs did finally catch one in 2025. But the Bengals badly sold our 3-leg teaser to the Jets, the Falcons no-showed against Miami, and the Steelers blew the second half against Green Bay to prevent an all-time great week of picks.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Broncos at Texans: Trust Houston?

When these teams met two years ago during C.J. Stroud’s rookie year, Houston won a 22-17 game after Russell Wilson threw three interceptions. Things have changed since then for both teams, but that kind of score and defensive slugfest is something I think you could see a repeat of Sunday in Houston where the Texans are a 1.5-point home favorite and the total is only 40.5 points, the lowest in Week 9.

I like Houston to win because Nico Collins is back at wide receiver, and he had 9 catches for 191 yards in that 2023 meeting. The Broncos had corner Patrick Surtain II that day, and they won’t in this one after a pec strain injury last week. The Texans need to pick on Riley Moss, who seems to be getting picked on by refs with flags this year. Chrisitan Kirk is also expected to play, so Stroud could have a full arsenal of weapons and has played well in 2-of-3 games the last month.

But it comes down to the defense. We’ve seen Bo Nix and the Denver offense have plenty of ugly quarters this year. They only beat the Jets 13-11 in London because the defense came up with 9 sacks. They were down 17-3 and 19-0 going into the fourth quarter against the Eagles and Giants before winning both games. Can’t count on that to always work.

The Houston defense is just really good, ranked No. 1 in points allowed. The offense has been a problem but Stroud was really good without Collins last week. The Surtain injury and Collins’ return moves me enough to go with them here, and let’s throw in Collins getting 4 receptions to push the odds above even.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Texans ML & Nico Collins 4+ Receptions (+121 at FanDuel)

2. Chiefs at Bills: The Annual Showdown

Maybe my hot take prediction is this is the only Chiefs vs. Bills game we’ll get in the 2025 season. This was circled as an AFC Championship Game preview, but I don’t think it’ll happen that way this year. Too many outside challengers this time with the Patriots, Chargers, Broncos, Colts, and don’t discount the Ravens going on a run now. There’s no guarantee the Chiefs or Bills win their divisions again this year.

Those division races do make this game important as neither team can really afford another loss right now. The Colts are famous for “holding things back” against Buffalo, expecting to see them in the playoffs where they’re 4-0 against them, which might explain some of the 0-4 in the regular season record since 2021. I never really believed that until last year when the Chiefs clearly unveiled some different things in the AFC-CG, and of course the defense was well prepared for Josh Allen going left on QB sneaks, stuffing him 3 times, a single-game record since 2016 on the sneak.

Right now, I think the Chiefs are playing better football than the Bills. Mahomes is playing better than Allen. The Bills won’t have Ed Oliver up front. The Chiefs may not have Pacheco and left tackle Josh Simmons, but they still have Kareem Hunt, Brashard Smith, and they’ve been learning to play without Simmons the last few weeks. This Buffalo defense is quite mediocre if they’re not getting any takeaways, and the Chiefs have mostly protected the ball save for a few tipped picks by Travis Kelce.

The Chiefs are usually good at containing rushers if you look at Saquon in the Super Bowl (only thing they did well), Derrick Henry in Baltimore, Jahmyr Gibbs a few weeks ago, etc. I don’t anticipate James Cook to dominate them on the ground in this one.

With Kansas City’s offense playing so effectively and the defense on a good run, I’m backing the Chiefs on the road to win this game. Mahomes is 18-6-1 ATS as an underdog or small favorite (up to 1.5 points) in his career. But for some negative correlation to boost the odds, let’s go with Allen to score a touchdown after getting the Tush Push corrected this year, but the Chiefs still win the game.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Chiefs ML (+325 at FanDuel)

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills — (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

3. Come On and Tease Me

Still mad about that teaser parlay failing last week because the Bengals blew a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter to the winless Jets. So, let’s try another one this week and raise the stakes to make it a 4-leg teaser at 6 points each:

Packers -13.5 vs. Panthers teased to Packers -7.5
49ers vs. Giants under 48.5 teased to under 54.5
Falcons vs. Patriots under 44.5 teased to under 50.5
Lions -8.5 vs. Vikings teased to Lions -2.5

No Bengals this time. Let’s bank on the Packers to do well with Carolina at home a week after the big Pittsburgh win. That defense should do well and Jordan Love is on a nice heater.

With 49ers vs. Giants, a lot of key pieces injured for both teams. The 49ers have been slumping offensively the last few weeks, but I think Robert Saleh and a veteran coaching staff can limit what Jaxson Dart can do without his best wide receiver and running back.

The Falcons, they’re probably the worst team to include in this right now as they can’t be trusted in any game this season. But if they insist on doing the opposite of what you expect, then if I expect them to get crushed in New England, then maybe they’ll make it competitive by keeping it a low-scoring game, so I’m going under 50.5 points as that pass rush should at least keep the Patriots under 30 points. A lot of sacks for Drake Maye this year.

Then with the Vikings, you get J.J. McCarthy back, but is he any good? It didn’t look so earlier this season, and we know the Lions can score with the best of them and have figured out Brian Flores’ defense well in recent years. Feel great about this leg.

Scott’s NFL Pick: 4-Leg Teaser (6 Points): Packers -7.5 & 49ers vs. Giants Under 54.5 & Falcons vs. Patriots Under 50.5 & Lions -2.5 (+240) at FanDuel

4. Saints at Rams: Tyler Shough’s First Start

We have a 3-leg parlay for Saints quarterback Tyler Shough making his first start in the NFL as a 14.5-point underdog against the rested Rams:

Kyren Williams Over 72.5 Rushing Yards
Rashid Shaheed Over 4.5 Receptions
Rams ML

I’d add a Jared Verse sack too if possible. But here’s the script: Rams control the game on both sides of the ball, lead much of the day, leading to more rushing yards for Kyren Williams against a vulnerable defense, and the Rams don’t sweat the win.

We only have 30 passes to go by for Shough last week, but he threw 8 targets with 6 completions for 45 yards to Rashid Shaheed, a good speedster target that the Saints could use to get open on quick throws to help Shough deal with the pass rush. I like the plus odds on his over in catches here.

5. Cardinals at Cowboys: Monday Night Shootout

We have a 3-leg parlay for MNF that’s expected to be a high-scoring game with a total of 53.5 points between the Cardinals and Cowboys (-2.5):

Marvin Harrison Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Jake Ferguson Over 40.5 Receiving Yards
George Pickens 50+ Receiving Yards

With Kyler Murray at quarterback again, I guess that means Trey McBride stops scoring touchdowns again. But the Cowboys have actually only allowed 2 touchdowns to tight ends this year. That doesn’t sound as great when you realize they’ve allowed 15 touchdowns to wide receivers, four more than the next closest defense. That’s why we like Marvin Harrison Jr. to use his size for one here.

Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson had one target and no catches on 44 snaps in Denver, one of the 2025 season’s most bizarre stat lines. Look for him to rebound in a big way here.

George Pickens could also be a big threat for Dak Prescott in this matchup as many secondary/possession type of receivers have burned Arizona for 50-plus yards this year, and this game figures to see Prescott throwing often again.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Marvin Harrison Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Jake Ferguson Over 40.5 Receiving Yards & George Pickens 50+ Receiving Yards (+493 at FanDuel)

6. Colts at Steelers: Shootout or Slugfest?

This is actually the third year in a row that Shane Steichen’s Colts are taking on Mike Tomlin’s Steelers. Steichen is 2-0 too, and both games were in Indy. This will be in Pittsburgh on early Sunday afternoon with weather expected to be in the 50s, which isn’t uncommon for early November.

But Tomlin finds himself in rare territory as this is only his fourth home game ever where he’s an underdog (+3) and the total is over 50 points (50.5). Those first three games were all against the Patriots (2011, 2017, 2018), and Tomlin was 2-1 in those games, a Jesse James touchdown standing away from 3-0, and the under was 3-0.

But these Colts are getting Patriots comparisons to the 2007 team as they are killing it in points per drive with one of the highest figures on record. The Steelers’ defense is 32nd in yards per drive too, so this could be an ugly matchup if the Steelers don’t step up and hope some blitzes force Daniel Jones into mistakes he just hasn’t been making this year. We looked at his MVP case yesterday.

You can never count out Tomlin as a home underdog though. Last week didn’t go as planned in the second half, but I think you have a game where they can try to lean more on the offense with Aaron Rodgrs slinging it all over the field the way the Steelers have attacked Lou Anarumo’s defenses when he was with Cincinnati. He has more talent here, but the Colts still aren’t viewed as a traditionally great defense yet.

I’m staying away from the final score and going with this 4-leg parlay:

Aaron Rodgers Over 222.5 Passing Yards – Already said the Steelers are going to need points and that’ll come through the passing game. Hell, even Justin Fields threw for over 300 yards in Indy last year for the Steelers.
D.K Metcalf Over 58.5 Receiving Yards – If Rodgers is throwing it a lot, he has to get his best wideout involved frequently.
Daniel Jones 225+ Passing Yards – An alternate line, Jones has gone over 200 yards in every game this year and the Steelers have many flaws in the secondary, and you know Jonathan Taylor is going to have their attention after what he did to Tennessee last week.
Michael Pittman Jr. Over 55.5 Receiving Yards – People are going to be all over rookie tight end Tyler Warren after the Steelers made Tucker Kraft look like prime Gronk last week, but I think a big possession receiver like Pittman can have a strong game here, and he could be still looking for some revenge on the Steelers after the hit he took in a 2023 game against them.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Aaron Rodgers Over 222.5 Passing Yards & D.K. Metcalf Over 58.5 Receiving Yards & Daniel Jones 225+ Passing Yards & Michael Pittman Jr. Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (+448 at FanDuel)

7. Week 9 NFL Touchdown Scorer Parlay: 6 Js for 6

Finally, we have a 6-leg parlay for anytime touchdown scorers with a ‘J’ name theme:

Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs. Panthers: Is he hurt, or is there a monsoon coming to Green Bay this Sunday? I’m confused why the odds (-140 at FanDuel) are so low on the most likely touchdown scorer in this game, but I’m going with him as he’s scored in all but one game this year.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs. Vikings: He’s just close to automatic here.
Justin Jefferson (Vikings) vs. Lions: Might be a risky pick since Jefferson has one touchdown all year and it came in Week 1. But who threw that touchdown to him? It was J.J. McCarthy, who returns this Sunday. Jefferson is due here in a big division game.
Jaxson Dart (Giants) vs. 49ers: Without Cam Skattebo, look for Dart to continue putting things in his own hands at the goal line even more for rushing touchdowns. Good value on this one (+210 at FanDuel).
Jakobi Meyers (Raiders) vs. Jaguars: Meyers is back as Geno Smith’s best wideout, and he has 329 yards without a touchdown yet this season; good matchup to end that drought.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs. Commanders: JSN has been killing it all season and the Commanders have a poor secondary to deal with him on Sunday night.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Parlay – Josh Jacobs & Jahmyr Gibbs & Justin Jefferson & Jaxson Dart & Jakobi Meyers & Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+1936 at FanDuel)

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