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Houston Texans 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: You Get Busy Living or You Get Busy Dying in the AFC South

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar16/08/2025 - 10:27 am
(Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

The Houston Texans were one of our most anticipated teams for the 2024 NFL season. We hyped them up as a Super Bowl contender with C.J. Stroud having MVP prospects with his revamped receiving corps and a new challenger to stop the Chiefs’ three-peat bid in the AFC.

Well, DeMeco Ryans’ Texans repeated their 10-7 record from 2023, they won the AFC South again, they won a home playoff game again, and they made it to Kansas City for the divisional round of the playoffs.

But every flaw boiled over that day as too many injuries left the neutered offense unable to do much, Stroud was sacked eight times behind his shaky offensive line, and the Texans even got flagged for some illegal hits on Patrick Mahomes after a regular season in which they notoriously ended Trevor Lawrence’s season with a dirty hit that caused a concussion.

The Texans hung in there with some of the best teams in the league last year, but it’s hard to say they were one of those teams themselves. Now, they have more competition in the AFC South as they aim for a three-peat of division titles after the Jaguars added Liam Coen and Travis Hunter, the Titans drafted quarterback Cam Ward, and the Colts at least have the (slim) possibility of a breakout season from Anthony Richardson.

Before we ask if the 2025 Texans are ready to do more than host the Bill O’Brien Wild-Card Invitational on a Saturday in January, we should probably look at whether there’s enough here to still think they’re winning this division.

Ever since Peyton Manning left the AFC South in 2011, no one has won it three years in a row. The Texans have won it in back-to-back years in 2011-12, 2015-16, and 2018-19, but they’ve never gone back-to-back-to-back yet.

Let’s look at why the Texans didn’t graduate to the next class in 2024, the changes they’ve made, and the best Houston bets for 2025.

Previously on TEXANS: Well, There Goes That Dream

Our 2024 Texans preview last August was an epic one as the team looked like it could be a major contender and very consequential to the season’s narrative. The Texans were one of those AFC teams, along with the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers, who were going to play three critical games 10 days apart around Christmas, and that was going to be the stretch that could determine everything from the No. 1 seed to the MVP award.

For Houston, it really didn’t do anything but crush the team’s hopes after wide receiver Tank Dell’s leg was severely injured in the 27-19 loss in Kansas City, then the team was destroyed 31-2 on Christmas at home against Baltimore, which looks like the worst matchup possible for Ryans’ squad.

But the 2024 Texans really didn’t feel like a major contender even early in the season. That Stroud MVP campaign? Not sure it made it past September. Despite the 5-1 start, Houston was winning games by the skin of its teeth, producing a minus-12 scoring differential after Week 5 thanks to four one-score wins and a 34-7 rout at the hands of the Vikings.

Houston’s defense had the impressive win over Buffalo, forcing Josh Allen to complete 9-of-30 passes and taking advantage of three late incompletions to set up a game-winning field goal in a 23-20 win. But close games rarely went Houston’s way the rest of the year as they lost 24-22 to a late field goal in Green Bay, then wasted a five-interception night against Jared Goff in a 26-23 loss to the Lions. The team also blew fourth-quarter leads to the Jets and Titans in bad losses.

That revamped receiving corps that was going to help Stroud elevate his game? It didn’t pan out. Stefon Diggs tore his ACL in the eighth game and is now with the Patriots. We already acknowledged Dell having a brutal injury for the second year in a row, and even Nico Collins missed five games with injury.

Behind an offensive line he didn’t trust, Stroud’s numbers essentially dipped everywhere from his stellar rookie season. He more than doubled his picks (5 à 12), his sack rate was just under 9%, and he averaged more than 50 fewer passing yards per game.

But with Houston’s defense having that ability to produce so many sacks, interceptions, and allowing a low completion rate, the team still found a way to win 10 games and win the division.

Then with the Chargers coming to Houston for the wild card game, that defense did its job by intercepting Justin Herbert four times, including once for a touchdown, after he had thrown just three picks all year. Stroud played well too in that game, and the Texans rolled 32-12.

But after getting another chance in Kansas City, and doing it without Dell or Diggs, the Texans trailed wire to wire, gave up the longest play Travis Kelce had all year, made some bad penalties, and Stroud was a human pinata in that fourth quarter on the way to eight sacks.

The end result was a 23-14 loss in the divisional round on the road against a No. 1 seed, which I guess is a slight improvement over a 34-10 loss in the divisional round on the road against the No. 1 seed (Ravens) like they had in 2023.

It was clear some big changes would need to be made with this team, and they may need to steer clear of those Ravens if they want to get to a Super Bowl.

Houston Texans Offseason Review

Did the Texans make enough big changes like the rest of the AFC South? Well, they have a new long snapper after Jon Weeks left for the 49ers. He’s only been with the team since 2009, but that’s obviously not the kind of change we’re looking for. But a new offensive coordinator? Now we’re talking.

Texans Offense: Who Is Nick Caley and Why Might His Job Be Hard This Year?

You can use offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik as a great example of how fast coaching prospects come and go in this league. One year, he’s on a path to becoming the next head coach from the Kyle Shanahan tree. But after Slowik’s Texans struggled on offense in 2024, he was out of a job and is now a senior pass game coordinator in Miami where Mike McDaniel doesn’t have the best job security either.

The new offensive coordinator in Houston is Nick Caley, 42, who learned under Bill Belichick coaching tight ends in New England (2015-22) and under Sean McVay’s Rams the last two years. Belichick and McVay, there’s a lineage.

But Caley has a huge task ahead of him as he inherits an offense that is all over the map right now, and it’s up to this first-time coordinator to get everyone on the same page.

Stroud enters his third year, and it’s a pivotal one where he either makes big strides to keep up with the elite AFC quarterbacks or he takes another step back. For his receivers, with Tank Dell’s catastrophic knee injury, you shouldn’t expect to see him play this season. The team signed veteran Christian Kirk (Jaguars) to play the slot, so that’s not a bad move if he can stay healthy. Not sure if Caley will want to use him like Wes Welker, because Nico Collins is the star you want to feed here.

But the Texans also used a second-round pick on Jayden Higgins, a 6’4” receiver who can grow into his own version of Collins on the outside. They used a third-round pick on Jaylin Noel, so there are some options here at wideout. They still have Dalton Schultz at tight end too.

If you take care of the offensive line, the receivers may not matter as much. But it’s debatable how much better the Texans got there after they traded Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Washington. Taking his place is Cam Robinson (Vikings), who was with the Jaguars since 2017 before going to Minnesota last year to help with the Christian Darrisaw injury. Robinson has never been a Pro Bowler and is only a year younger than Tunsil, so it’s not like they’ve added some hot, young prospect there. I’d consider it a downgrade at left tackle.

The new left guard is Laken Tomlinson, who I feel like I’ve been writing about in team previews as someone’s new guard for the last decade now. The Texans will be his fifth team after spending 2023 with the Jets and 2024 with the Seahawks. He’s very experienced (155 starts), but again, it’s another new piece that’s on the downslope of his career.

As for someone brand new, the Texans used their second-round pick on right tackle Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota), who could start Week 1. Veteran tackle Trent Brown was also added for depth but is injured.

The running backs are older and iffy as Joe Mixon is dealing with injury already, and Nick Chubb (Browns) is just trying to find his way back after his serious leg injury in 2023.

Just to recap, this offense is a first-time coordinator trying to work with a young quarterback that’s got room for growth, a beat-up running back room, an offensive line filled with over-the-hill vets or a second-round rookie, one prime receiver, and a couple of rookie pass catchers.

It just sounds like a lot of work to get everyone on the same page when there’s no real chemistry whatsoever, and the only player truly in their prime is Collins. So, good luck with that, Mr. Caley.

Defense: Splash Play Regression?

Fortunately, Ryans’ defense will undergo fewer changes than the offense. The team signed a solid veteran defensive tackle in Sheldon Rankins (Bengals), and they acquired safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from the Eagles. Gardner-Johnson narrowly avoided a serious knee injury last week, but his status is up in the air.

This defense will still be led up front by edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who combined for 23 sacks last year. Could they do better? Sure, but we’ll see if any third rusher could also step up for the pass rush.

The secondary has a chance to be really good, led by All-Pro corner Derek Stingley Jr. Kamari Lassiter also had a nice rookie season, and we’ll see if safety Calen Bullock can step up in Year 2. All three of those players allowed quarterbacks to complete less than 48% of their targets against them in 2024, and that’s not just because they got to play Anthony Richardson twice. The results against Goff, Herbert, and Allen were very strong in 2024 for this unit.

Unfortunately, they also played their worst games against Lamar Jackson, Mahomes, Sam Darnold, and they made Aaron Rodgers go from maybe his worst half ever to a stellar fourth quarter finish.

You’d like to see Houston get a little less turnover dependent as the Texans were just 27th at allowing touchdowns in the red zone last year. Also, they still lost three games when they forced at least three turnovers, which isn’t good.

But the defense, which was middling at best in 2023, did improve more than the offense in 2024, and that was unexpected. This year, they should at least try to maintain their ranking and hope that the offense takes the big leap forward.

Best Bets for the 2025 Texans   

The concerns about the offense coming together are valid, and you’d have to check the schedule to see if that’s going to help or hurt that chemistry building with so many new pieces:

  • Leaning towards hurt as the Texans are in Los Angeles against the Rams, who had 16 sacks in two playoff games and have one of the best front sevens filled with young, growing talent.
  • Week 2 is Monday night at home against Tampa Bay, a talented offense that can put up points. They better force some Baker Mayfield turnovers in that one.
  • Week 3 is the trip to Jacksonville, which should be an improved team with new coach Liam Coen, Travis Hunter, and a healthy Trevor Lawrence maybe looking for some revenge after that hit last year.
  • The first game against Cam Ward and the Titans is Week 4, but the Titans had one of their only three wins against Houston last year.
  • Week 5 is at Baltimore, maybe the worst opponent for Houston of them all based on the three matchups since 2023.
  • After a Week 6 bye, a trip to Seattle (Mike Macdonald’s defense is run like Baltimore) could be tough if Sam Darnold is playing well.
  • The 49ers come to Houston in what could be a rough game right before Denver, another talented team with few holes.
  • After the Jags and Titans again, it’s a short week with Thursday night against Buffalo as Josh Allen will look to do better than 9/30.
  • The Texans are in Indy Week 13 and close the season at home with the Colts, which might need to be a sweep to win this division again.
  • Week 14 is a trip to Kansas City, and we’ll see if Rashee Rice is suspended by then or back, but you know that’s always a tough trip.
  • The Cardinals and Raiders come to Houston in Weeks 15-16, and they should be at least competitive this year.
  • Week 17 is a playoff rematch with the Chargers as Justin Herbert will try to avenge his ugly playoff loss to this defense.

It might be the toughest schedule yet for Houston in the Ryans-Stroud era as the AFC West is loaded, the AFC South should be in better hands, the NFC West may not have a bad team this year, and you still have to go to Baltimore, Kansas City, and host Buffalo because of that first-place schedule.

I think even if the Texans sweep the Colts, they won’t do better than 9-8 this season. That’d be taking a step back, and that’s my prediction as it won’t be enough for the playoffs either with Jacksonville taking the AFC South and the only playoff spot for this division.

But one prop pick I really like is the over for Nico Collins’ receiving yards seeing as how he’s the only player in that offense in his prime. Feed him the ball.

  • NFL Pick: Houston Texans under 9.5 wins (-125) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Houston Texans to miss playoffs (+118) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Nico Collins over 1125.5 receiving yards (-110) at bet365

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar16/08/2025 - 10:27 am