US Open Final Preview: Can anyone stop Alcaraz and Sinner?
Since Novak Djokovic’s last major triumph at the 2023 US Open, no one outside Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner has lifted a Grand Slam. Seven straight majors have gone their way, and by Sunday evening in New York it will be eight. They have contested three of those finals directly, and this will be their third in a row in 2025. They have split the last eight Slams and taken ten of the last thirteen, with the rest of the field feeding on crumbs.
That kind of dominance is startling not only for its statistical neatness but for how young they both are. Alcaraz, 22, already has five majors, and Sinner, 24, is closing in fast with four. They have done this while still refining their games, still shaking off rough edges, still occasionally dropping sets that make you wonder, briefly, whether they can wobble. Yet the results say otherwise. They have played themselves into the kind of duopoly usually reserved for the history books. The question is no longer whether anyone else can stop them. It is whether either of them can stop the other.
US Open Final is yet another electric matchup between the world’s best
The trilogy comes to Queens
This is the hardback edition of a rivalry that has carried the season. Alcaraz won Paris in an all-time final after saving three championship points, then Sinner struck back at Wimbledon in four sets. Now New York offers the tiebreaker, and the stakes are tidy and enormous at once: a major title, year-end momentum, and the top ranking on Monday morning. It is also the first time in the Open era that the same two men have met in three consecutive Slam finals within a single season.
Sinner returns to Arthur Ashe as the defending champion, twelve months removed from his straight-sets win over Taylor Fritz. Alcaraz returns as the 2022 winner who used this court to announce himself to the wider world. Between them they have already monopolised 2025. The US Open will not break the pattern.
US OPEN CHAMPION 🔥
— 365Scores (@365Scores) September 8, 2024
World no. 1️⃣, Jannick Sinner, setting history as he becomes the first player since Guillermo Vilas in 1977 to win his first two Grand Slam titles in the same season after winning the Australian Open 🥇
Sinner has beaten Taylor Fritz 3-0 (6-3) (6-4) (7-5) 🏆 pic.twitter.com/O1pmydVXWC
The form book tilts, narrowly
If you lean on form, you lean slightly towards Alcaraz. He has not dropped a set in New York, and he handled Novak Djokovic in straight sets in the semi-final with a blend of patience and bravado that left the 24-time major winner searching for answers. Alcaraz has been on a ridiculous tear since April, making eight straight finals, and his serve has been sneakily excellent all week. Tournament tracking shows both finalists winning more than 80 percent of first-serve points here, with Alcaraz leading the field on second-serve points won. That is the kind of detail that flips tight matches.
Ruthless!
— 365Scores (@365Scores) September 6, 2025
Carlos Alcaraz beat Novak Djokovic 3:0 (6:4, 7:6, 6:2) to book his spot in the US Open Men’s Final where he’ll meet Jannik Sinner. Is the Spanish star going to win it? pic.twitter.com/u6W4EWwGfz
Sinner’s path has contained more turbulence, including a medical timeout in his semi against Félix Auger-Aliassime, after which he settled and closed in four. He downplayed the concern and says there is nothing to worry about. The Italian has also been bulletproof on hard courts at the Slams for two seasons, coming into the final with a 27 match winning streak at the Australian Open and US Open combined. That kind of baseline certainty travels across conditions and time zones.
Why New York suits Alcaraz
New York rewards audacity, and no player mixes audacity with calculation like Alcaraz. The drop shot that makes purists grumble turns defences into rubble on Ashe, because it weaponises the opponent’s court position and the stadium’s energy in the same instant. His net instincts are first-rate, and his off-pace forehand, disguised to skid low and short, is a New York special. The other reason Queens flatters him is psychological: this is where he first became a major champion at 19. The court holds proof that he can absorb Sinner’s heaviest drives and outlast him in a match that becomes a puzzle.
There is also the matter of the serve. Alcaraz’s delivery is no longer merely solid. The placement has tightened, the patterns are less predictable, and the second serve stands up under heat. If Sinner camps on the backhand return to smother the ad-court slider, Alcaraz can switch to the body and open up the next ball. The Cincinnati final is a data point too, even if truncated by Sinner’s illness. Alcaraz’s start there was electric, and the exchange hinted at how ruthless he can be when he finds the forehand early on hard courts.
The rivalry, by the numbers and the feel
Head to head, Alcaraz leads 9–5 overall and 6–2 on hard courts. That headline will comfort the Alcaraz camp, yet it hides how often their matches tilt on a single pattern caught or a single game survived. This season alone, Sinner halted Alcaraz’s grass court run at Wimbledon, while Alcaraz flipped a desperate scoreline in Paris. They are close enough in level that mini-trends, like Alcaraz’s comfort attacking second serves this fortnight or Sinner’s improved hold rate under pressure, loom larger than any historic stat.
The texture of their points is the other giveaway. Pure first-strike tennis suits neither man over five sets against the other. Alcaraz wins when he varies height, spin and speed then races forward behind a surprise change. Sinner wins when he keeps the ball letter-high, compact and repeatable until an opening arrives. They drag each other to a middle ground, then punch for space. That is why time and place matter: a humid Sunday afternoon on Ashe offers different traction and bounce than a cool Paris night or a breezy Centre Court.
The rest of the field, for now, trails
If the question is whether anyone else could have stopped them this fortnight, the semi-final results hinted at the gap. Alcaraz dismissed Djokovic, who is still class but increasingly fighting physics in best of five. Sinner handled a resurgent Auger-Aliassime with a professional four-set win. Between them, they have hoovered up the era’s oxygen and most of its silver. No one else apart from these two has won a Slam since Djokovic lifted the trophy here in 2023, and it does not look like changing soon. Alcaraz and Sinner are too good for Djokovic, and Djokovic is still too good for everyone else.
Against anyone not named Alcaraz or Sinner, Djokovic still wins. Against them, he now looks like the bridge between generations, too good for everyone else but outgunned when the rallies lengthen against the pair who move like sprinters and hit like heavyweights.
The chasing pack remains talented but firmly second tier. Fritz, Zverev and De Minaur will always hover around the quarter-finals, capable of the odd upset but not consistently able to string together three wins against the very top. Their ceiling is admirable, but at the majors the glass above is reinforced.
Keys that decide the final
Sinner’s first serve percentage. If he lives north of the mid 60s and avoids patches of second serves into the body on the ad side, he can steer rallies to the backhand exchange he prefers. If the percentage dips, Alcaraz’s return position will creep in and the drop shot will bloom again.
Alcaraz’s second-serve aggression. The Spaniard leads this event in second-serve points won, and that has insulated him from nervy service games. Sinner is an excellent second-serve attacker. Whoever wins that small war, when the first serve deserts them for a game, will grab a set.
Rally length. Sinner thrives in repeatable medium-length rallies, five to nine shots, on a straight-line cadence. Alcaraz wants to break that rhythm, pull Sinner off the baseline and finish at the net. Watch for Alcaraz to feather short slices and change direction early to manufacture forehands.
New York variables. Ashe at full voice can jolt even the steadiest hand. Alcaraz has always fed on that energy, but Sinner has developed a good way of quieting a crowd by stringing together efficient holds. The court has not been lightning fast, which should give returns a chance and nudge the match toward longer exchanges.
So, can anyone stop them?
Not this fortnight. The field tried, the bracket offered opportunities, and yet the final is the only match most had circled from day one. The better question is who stops whom on Sunday. Alcaraz has been a shade sharper in New York, with a cleaner serving week and a more comfortable run through the draw. Sinner has the hard-court Slam streak and the Wimbledon win in his back pocket, plus the muscle memory of absorbing Alcaraz’s fireworks without blinking.
By Nicky Helfgott / @NickyHelfgott1 on Twitter (X)
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