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Minnesota Vikings 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: We Just Have to Choose Our Adventure with J.J. McCarthy This Year

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar06/08/2025 - 11:21 am
J.J. McCarthy #9 of the Minnesota Vikings
(Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)

The Minnesota Vikings are a real wild card team in 2025, and I’m not referring to their NFL playoff status. They are about as volatile as it gets this year as any outcome from 4-13 to 13-4 would not come as a surprise. Much of this is on the shoulders of second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who has one preseason game on his resume to this point. He is the wild card.

But it’s also on Kevin O’Connell, the reigning NFL Coach of the Year. He’s hard to predict too:

  • The 2022 Vikings finished 13-4 despite being outscored by 3 points on the season thanks to a record-tying 8 fourth-quarter comeback wins, including a record 33-point comeback against the Colts. But they lost the first playoff game at home to Daniel Jones and the Giants.
  • The 2023 Vikings predictably regressed in close games, but Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles and O’Connell ended up starting four quarterbacks on the way to a 7-10 record.
  • The 2024 Vikings had arguably the most surprising 5-0 start since the 2009 Broncos or 1999 Rams behind journeyman Sam Darnold, who had a career year and helped the team to a 14-3 record.

But everything came crashing down for O’Connell and the Vikings in the final two games when they had a chance to earn the No. 1 seed. Darnold played terribly in Detroit, then couldn’t stop taking sacks against the Rams in a wild card loss. The Lions and Rams swept the Vikings, who were 14-0 against the rest of the NFL last year.

With this rollercoaster in the KOC era, are we in store for another 6-to-7 game drop in the win department in 2025? The sportsbooks favor the Vikings to finish over 8.5 wins (-145 at FanDuel) and they are basically a coin flip for returning to the playoffs. That’s trust in a coach who already has a 13 and 14-win season on his resume, and let’s not forget that McCarthy was a high draft pick last year. They also should have a defense that can help win games.

On the other hand, it’s not that hard to see how things could go south this year, especially if McCarthy struggles and the schedule proves to be tougher this year. Our running theme in the NFC North as we’ve seen with the Bears and Packers is that things should shake up in the division order this year, and the Vikings are the most volatile team because of the major quarterback change and question mark.

Let’s figure it out. We’ll look at where things went right and wrong for the Vikings last year, the history of young quarterbacks taking over, and the best Vikings bets for 2025.

Previously on VIKINGS: Sam-I-Am-Sam-Darnold After All  

If you thought the 2022 Vikings had a 13-win season out of nowhere, then the 2024 Vikings found a way to outdo it. They were only given a 6.5-game preseason win total, which they surpassed by Week 10. But few expected much from a team that lost quarterback Kirk Cousins (Falcons) and its best pass rusher in Danielle Hunter (Texans).

Sure, the 2024 draft had immediate answers for how they’d address those key positions. The Vikings used the No. 10 pick on Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy and the No. 17 pick on edge rusher Dallas Turner, who was supposed to be the first edge rusher taken from Alabama.

But the funny thing is neither contributed a whole lot to the team’s 14-3 season. Turner was a reserve, but he only played 28% of the defensive snaps as a rookie and finished with 3.0 sacks and 7 pressures. Forgive me if I expected more in 2024 from him.

Meanwhile, McCarthy had a shot to win the starting job last year and give us some better clarity on what he is as an NFL quarterback. But after a solid preseason debut, he had meniscus surgery, and it was Sam Darnold’s opportunity to run with as he had the rare breakout season for a quarterback in Year 7 of his career.

In fact, it was one of the best “late bloomer” seasons ever at the position, and that’s why the Vikings were in position to earn the No. 1 seed in the final game of the season. Darnold threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns while averaging 7.9 yards per attempt. He led five game-winning drives, equaling his career total from 2018-23 in one dream season.

Darnold certainly enjoyed throwing to a weapon like Justin Jefferson, and it doesn’t hurt to have Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson to round out the top trio. But even his numbers when throwing to the likes of Jalen Nailor and Josh Oliver were really solid. He also didn’t have the greatest pass protection, and the team lost left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending injury in the loss against the Rams.

In fact, it was a strange case of déjà vu for the Vikings last year, and maybe a bit of Darnold turning into a pumpkin at midnight after fans waited for it to happen all year:

  • After starting 5-0, they dropped back-to-back games in shootouts with the Lions and Rams (Darnold infamously didn’t get a facemask call on a late drive in that one).
  • After a 9-game winning streak, the Vikings lost 31-9 in Detroit with the No. 1 seed on the line, then had to go face the Rams in Los Angeles again and lost 27-9 after Darnold took 9 sacks that lost an unfathomable 82 yards.

I guess you can say the Lions and Rams had their number, and after the performance by Darnold over those last two games, it’s no wonder the Vikings are content with moving forward with McCarthy. Darnold is who we thought he was, but he could have a long career if things go well in Seattle for him.

Now it’s up to O’Connell to try stacking playoff appearances, something we haven’t seen the Vikings do since 2008-09. Back then, they upgraded at quarterback from Tarvaris Jackson to the last great year for Hall of Famer Brett Favre.

This time, we simply don’t know if McCarthy is going to be an upgrade over 2024 Darnold or a step back. But if you forget about how things ended or what you thought of Darnold going into 2024, those first 16 games set a pretty high bar for McCarthy this year with a roster that’s still very much playoff ready.

J.J. McCarthy and the History of Young Quarterback Debuts in Non-Rookie Years

If you try to read the training camp reports on J.J. McCarthy right now, it’s a wide range from him looking like the greatest quarterback ever to a bum who should lose the job to Sam Howell:

What are we supposed to believe? Usually, we’d have a rookie season to dissect, but that’s just not the case for McCarthy, who gave us one good preseason game in 2024. This puts him in a rare position of taking over a playoff-ready team without any pass attempts under his belt in games that count.

Trying to find quarterbacks similar to McCarthy’s situation is hard but not impossible.

  • We probably should ignore players like Tony Romo (2003-05 Cowboys), Philip Rivers (2004-05 Chargers), Aaron Rodgers (2005-07 Packers), and Jordan Love (2020-22 Packers) who got to ride the bench for multiple years before taking over.
  • Hall of Famer Ken Stabler was drafted by the Raiders in 1968 but didn’t throw a pass until 1970 or start a game in the NFL until 1971, so that’s also not comparable. 
  • MVP Joe Theismann was drafted in 1971, didn’t throw a pass until 1974, and didn’t start a game at quarterback until 1976 for Washington.
  • Even examples of second-year wonders who won the Super Bowl like Kurt Warner (11 pass attempts in 1998) and Tom Brady (3 pass attempts in 2000) still at least appeared in a game as rookies and threw passes.
  • Warner was also 28 when he had his breakout season for the 1999 Rams after bouncing around practice squads and other football leagues, so he’s not your common example by any stretch.
  • Brett Favre threw 4 passes (half were intercepted) for the 1991 Falcons before he was traded to Green Bay where he became an injury replacement starter in 1992.
  • Drew Brees started no games in his rookie season, but he did throw 27 passes in one game off the bench before going 8-8 as a starter in 2002 for the Chargers.
  • Someone like Patrick Mahomes also started the final game of his rookie season (2017) before winning MVP in 2018 for the Chiefs.

Oddly enough, if you want to talk about the most recent second-year quarterback to take over a team with one or fewer starts as a rookie, you’d be looking at Sam Howell, McCarthy’s new backup in Minnesota this year. Howell started the season finale for Washington as a fifth-round pick in 2022, then got the job in 2023. It didn’t go well. He threw 21 interceptions and took 65 sacks, but he also had much less draft stock than McCarthy.

But if you want the two examples that resemble McCarthy the most, it’s going to be a former Vikings quarterback drafted No. 11 overall and a No. 1 pick from USC.

Daunte Culpepper was Minnesota’s draft prize in 1999 after that 15-1 season, and the team was basically able to redshirt him as a rookie and still make the playoffs. Culpepper appeared in one game as a rookie and didn’t throw a pass. He took over as the starter in 2000, had the most talented wideout in the game (Randy Moss), and he was an instant hit with 33 touchdown passes (7 more rushing), and the Vikings finished 11-5 and lost the NFC Championship Game to the Giants.

Losing 41-0 to Kerry Collins aside, that’s at least encouraging that the most successful example of what the Vikings are doing is their 2000 season.

The other closest example is what the Bengals did with Carson Palmer. They drafted him No. 1 overall in 2003, sat him the whole year, finished 8-8 with Jon Kitna, then turned the keys over to Palmer in 2004. The Bengals finished 8-8, Palmer had worse numbers than 2003 Kitna, but the light bulb turned on late in the year and he’d lead them to the playoffs in 2005.

Culpepper and Palmer, two careers forever altered by devastating knee injuries. McCarthy’s already had the meniscus surgery, so that’s not the greatest start. But it will be interesting to see how he meshes with O’Connell, who loves throwing the ball frequently, which is not how McCarthy managed games at Michigan.

We’ll see if McCarthy can catch on quickly to O’Connell’s system. He has the talent around him to do great things this year. But he doesn’t get a rookie pass as you’re expected to be a little ahead of the curve if you’ve had a year to digest the system as he has.

Minnesota Vikings Offseason Review

The Vikings retain their main coaching staff around O’Connell for another year. We just covered the major quarterback change for Minnesota, but let’s look at the several new pieces on offense this year, and the defense has also brought in several veterans for coordinator Brian Flores to experiment with.

Offense: It Starts in the Trenches

You didn’t have to watch Super Bowl 59 between the Chiefs and Eagles to know the importance of a good offensive line. You could have just watched the Rams destroy the Vikings up front in the wild card round and sack Darnold nine times. Even if the Vikings got past that game, they never stood a chance in Philadelphia with this line and Darnold (or any quarterback) trying to throw at those corners.

It’s no wonder the Vikings invested heavily in the line this year. The first good news is they’ll get Darrisaw back healthy at left tackle. But they’re not stopping there. They used the No. 24 pick on Ohio State left guard Donovan Jackson, who has a good shot to start Week 1.

The Vikings also imported 40% of the Colts’ starting offensive line by signing center Ryan Kelly (2-year deal worth $18 million) and right guard Will Fries (5-year deal worth $88 million). Both are coming off injury-shortened seasons, but Kelly made the Pro Bowl as recently as 2023, and Fries is only going into his fifth year and should be hitting his prime.

If everyone can just stay healthy, then this should be a considerable upgrade over 2024’s offensive line, and both McCarthy and running back Aaron Jones should be happy about the improvements in protection and run blocking. Kelly and Fries were used to opening lanes for Jonathan Taylor in Indy.

We know the Vikings have excellent pass catchers, and they even added some depth with Rondale Moore and third-round rookie Tai Felton (Maryland). But the line is where they needed their most work, and they seem to have done a good job of building it up for McCarthy.

Defense: Brian Flores’ Best Yet?

Defensive coordinator Brian Flores of the Minnesota Vikings
(Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Getty Images)

Defensive coordinator Brian Flores enters his third season with the Vikings, and he’s coming off quite arguably his finest year ever with the defensive results his unit had in 2024. They had the highest blitz rate (38.9%) in the league while still playing a lot of zone coverage and keeping offenses guessing.

He comes from that Bill Belichick school of playing bend-but-don’t-break defense, so the Vikings gave up some yards, but they were very good at limiting points (top five), and their 33 takeaways tied Pittsburgh for the most. Flores most notably stifled the Kyle Shanahan style of offense last year in dominant early-season wins against the Texans and 49ers. They also swept the Packers as Matt LaFleur is very much a Shanahan disciple (spent eight years together in the NFL).

However, Sean McVay (Rams) and Ben Johnson/Dan Campbell (Lions) got the best of Flores last year in their four meetings. Johnson is now coaching Chicago’s offense, and that was another scary game for the Vikings after they blew an 11-point lead after the two-minute warning before winning in overtime.

But the Vikings have a good mixture of talent: Young and old, homegrown and transplants.

  • Safety Harrison Smith is 36 and still leading the secondary, which will try to get something out of newcomers Jeff Okudah (Texans) and Isaiah Rodgers (Eagles) at corner.
  • In the front seven, Jonathan Greenard (12 sacks) and Andrew Van Ginkel (11.5 sacks, 2 interceptions) had fantastic Pro Bowl seasons in their team debut last year, so they’ll try to recapture that success.
  • The newest additions to the defensive line are Jonathan Allen (Commanders) and Javon Hargrave (49ers), who have had big seasons in the past for their teams.
  • Still, it’d be great if Dallas Turner could show why he was a coveted high draft pick in 2024 too.

Defense is harder than offense to stay consistently good at, especially if you rely on turnovers and sacks while giving up yardage like Flores’ defense did in 2024. But with all this talent and experience and him disguising things, the Vikings have a good shot to be a top 10 defense (or better) again in 2025.

Best Bets for the 2025 Vikings  

Justin Jefferson #18 of the Minnesota Vikings
(Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

It’s a real annoyance having such little information on McCarthy in the NFL. Will he live up to his college reputation for converting on third down at a high rate despite playing in a run-heavy scheme there? Will he deliver in the clutch, and can he win shootouts presumably with the Lions and Packers? Michigan never allowed more than 24 points in any game in 2023. Is he going to manage sacks and interceptions well? Will he give Justin Jefferson ample opportunities to make plays down the field, or will he turn into Captain Checkdown?

These are all things we’ll just have to learn on the fly, which is why I think the early schedule is crucial to whether or not this team has a good year. We just found out Tuesday that wide receiver Jordan Addison will be suspended for the first three games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, so they’ll be down a main weapon. Not a huge difference maker when you have Jefferson and Hockenson, but it’s worth noting as one early injury to one of those stars and suddenly you are in trouble.

The Vikings were 7-1 against the AFC South (weak division) and NFC West (down year) last season. This year’s schedule should be tougher with the AFC North and the NFC East could end up being three deep with contenders if the Cowboys improve after a lost year.

  • Minnesota opens in Chicago on Monday night, so that’s a tough division battle as we’ve noted Ben Johnson has gotten the best of Flores’ defense before.
  • The Falcons and Bengals come to Minnesota in Weeks 2-3 and both are looking for a return to the playoffs this season. Both have highly-skilled weapons who could give the defense problems and force McCarthy into higher-scoring games.
  • Week 4 is against the Steelers in Ireland, so that’s a veteran-heavy defense (revamped secondary), and expect the Steelers to have a huge crowd following there.
  • Easier game against Cleveland before the early bye, but then it’s right into the matchup with Eagles, the defending champs, before road games with the Chargers (Thursday night) and Lions.
  • It doesn’t really lighten up when the Ravens come to Minnesota in Week 10 before a rematch with the Bears and the first trip to Green Bay, who will be looking for at least a split this year.
  • Sam Darnld gets his revenge game in Seattle in Week 13, then Jayden Daniels and the Commanders start December for Minnesota indoors.
  • Trips to the Cowboys and Giants before hosting the Lions on Christmas followed by Green Bay to end it.

Let’s say McCarthy is “decent” this season. Maybe something like the 14th-best quarterback in the NFL. With this schedule, I’m still not sure that gets to a winning record. Aside from the Giants and Browns, I feel like all 15 games for the Vikings could be against teams that win at least 8 games, which hasn’t been done since the 1999 Broncos faced 16 teams who were all 8-8 or better.

Even if the Bears disappoint again and Darnold flops in Seattle, that’s still 12 games against teams I dare say could have a winning record this year. We’ve seen that happen 12 times in the 17-game era since 2021 (only four times before it), but that’s still a tough schedule.

Maybe McCarthy has one of the great debut seasons. You could argue he’s walking into the best situation in NFL history. Even Brock Purdy didn’t know going into the 2022 season with San Francisco that he’d play, let alone that the team would trade for Christian McCaffrey during the season. But McCarthy could have a top-five defense, the first or second-best wide receiver in the NFL, two other first-round talents to throw to, Pro Bowlers at running back (Aaron Jones) and center (three first-round picks on the offensive line), and the reigning Coach of the Year.

But I’m willing to make him prove it first before I buy in to his NFL stock. That’s why I think the Vikings take some steps back this year, finish under 8.5 wins, but the bet I feel more confident about is they’ll miss the playoffs this year. Because you can still quite easily finish 9-8 and miss the playoffs, so no playoffs is my top choice for Minnesota this year.

  • NFL Pick: Minnesota Vikings under 8.5 wins (+120) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Minnesota Vikings to miss playoffs (-120) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar06/08/2025 - 11:21 am