Will Saquon Barkley End the 26-Year Super Bowl MVP Drought for Running Backs?
The Super Bowl MVP award has been dominated by the quarterback position in NFL history since its inception in 1966. Quarterbacks have won 33 of the 59 awards (55.9%), and no running back has won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis (1997 Broncos). But if anyone can end that drought, it would be Saquon Barkley for this year’s version of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Barkley is having one of the greatest seasons by a running back in NFL history and can break or extend multiple records Sunday night against the Kansas City Chiefs:
- Barkley (2,447 yards) needs 30 rushing yards to surpass Terrell Davis (2,476 yards for the 1998 Broncos) for the single-season rushing yardage record (playoffs included).
- Barkley needs 3 yards to set the single-season record (playoffs included) for yards from scrimmage, topping the 2,762 yards Terrell Davis had for the 1998 Broncos.
- Barkley is tied for 25th in touches (451) in a season but is already No. 2 in yards from scrimmage (2,760).
- Barkley (442 yards) needs 169 rushing yards to break John Riggins’ single postseason record of 610 rushing yards for the 1982 Redskins.
- Including the playoffs, Barkley has the single-season records for most touchdown runs of 25+ yards (9), 30+ yards (8), 40+ yards (7), 50+ yards (7), 60+ yards (7), and he is tied for the most of 70+ yards (3).
- Barkley has 3 rushing touchdowns of 60-plus yards this postseason, which is the NFL career record for the playoffs.
- Barkley and Elmer Angsman (twice for the 1947 Cardinals) are the only players to ever rush for multiple 60-yard touchdown runs in the same NFL postseason.
- For that matter, Barkley is the only player with 3 touchdown runs of 35+ yards in his playoff career.
- The three longest touchdown runs in Super Bowl history are 2005 Willie Parker (75 yards), 1983 Marcus Allen (74 yards), and 1987 Timmy Smith (58 yards).
Barkley has been lethal behind the Philadelphia offensive line, and that’s why he is the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year. Now, Barkley has the second-best odds to win Super Bowl MVP (+280 at FanDuel), and it just so happens that Sunday is his 28th birthday.
Will Barkley get his ultimate birthday wish of a Super Bowl win, or will a tough matchup in the Chiefs slow him down? Is rushing even the optimal way to beat the Kansas City dynasty? Let’s examine the history of rushing performances in the Super Bowl and Barkley’s task against Kansas City.
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History of Running Backs Winning Super Bowl MVP
This may be hard to believe, but only seven running backs have won Super Bowl MVP. While they used to be a popular choice for the regular-season MVP award before the 2000s, there has really never been a point in history where running backs dominated this coveted award. Still, only quarterbacks (33) and wide receivers (9) have more Super Bowl MVP awards than the running backs.
Here are the seven backs to win Super Bowl MVP and how they fared as runners in the big game:
- Larry Csonka, 1973 Dolphins vs. Vikings: 33 carries, 145 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Franco Harris, 1974 Steelers vs. Vikings: 34 carries, 158 yards, 1 touchdown
- John Riggins, 1982 Redskins vs. Dolphins: 38 carries, 166 yards, 1 touchdown
- Marcus Allen, 1983 Raiders vs. Redskins: 20 carries, 191 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Ottis Anderson, 1990 Giants vs. Bills: 21 carries, 102 yards, 1 touchdown
- Emmitt Smith, 1993 Cowboys vs. Bills: 30 carries, 132 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Terrell Davis, 1997 Broncos vs. Packers: 30 carries, 157 yards, 3 touchdowns
Let’s not forget you have to win the game too as only one player (linebacker Chuck Howley in Super Bowl V) has ever won Super Bowl MVP on a losing team. Had Scott Norwood made his field goal in Super Bowl XXV for the Bills, Thurman Thomas would have been named Super Bowl MVP with 135 rushing yards and a touchdown instead of Ottis Anderson.
Most of these players set what was then the record for rushing yards in a Super Bowl. In fact, five of the six players to rush for at least 140 yards in the Super Bowl won MVP. The only exception is Timmy Smith, who still holds the Super Bowl record with 204 rushing yards for the 1987 Redskins. But quarterback Doug Williams threw four touchdowns in the second quarter to clinch that MVP while Smith gained 65 of his yards in the fourth quarter of a blowout win.
Barkley’s rushing line in prop bets is about 111.5 right now. He’s almost certainly going to have to exceed that if he wants to get MVP votes. Scoring a long touchdown run would also help a great deal, and that’s been his best way all year to avoid having Jalen Hurts vulture his touchdown with the Tush Push.
Top Running Backs Rarely Reach the Super Bowl Anymore
We started by mentioning that Terrell Davis is the last running back to win Super Bowl MVP for the 1997 Broncos. That’s fitting because Davis was the embodiment of the 1990s workhorse back. The Broncos ran him into the ground for those back-to-back titles at the end of John Elway’s career, then Davis was injured in 1999 and was never the same back.
But that era with the likes of Davis, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Jerome Bettis, Curtis Martin, etc. was really the peak of the workhorseback era. Back when you gave one player over 350 carries and did not worry about it. That carried over a bit in the early 2000s with Tiki Barber, LaDainian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, and Shaun Alexander to name a few.
But by 2007, teams started moving to situational play and running back by committee. The 350-carry back has gone practically extinct with just two such seasons in the last decade (2014 DeMarco Murray and 2020 Derrick Henry).
Many of the top running backs in the 21st century from LaDainian Tomlinson to Adrian Peterson to Derrick Henry never played in a Super Bowl. So, maybe it’s not that surprising that we haven’t seen a running back win Super Bowl MVP in more than a quarter of a century when so many of the best ones never even get the opportunity.
Meanwhile, the quality of backs who do win championships these days has not been that high, which was part of the justification for why the Giants did not re-sign Barkley when he had a losing record in six seasons. Had the 2024 Giants, who finished 3-14, kept Barkley, there’s really no chance in hell he would have come close to the season he’s had with the Eagles. That’s just reality.
Teams have moved away from top running backs as the focal point of a championship-winning offense. After Davis won his back-to-back rings with the Broncos in 1997-98, we got one more great running back matchup in 1999 between Marshall Faulk (Rams) and Eddie George (Titans). A year later, it was Jamal Lewis (Ravens) and Tiki Barber (Giants).
But since the Patriots’ dynasty began in 2001, the average leading rusher on the Super Bowl winner has rushed for 913 yards in the regular season compared to 1,091 yards for the Super Bowl loser’s lead back. Yes, the more productive back has lost more Super Bowls than won them in the last 23 seasons.
The last time a Super Bowl featured two 1,200-yard rushers was in 2005 between MVP Shaun Alexander (Seahawks) and Willie Parker (Steelers). But it was Parker who won the game with his record-setting 75-yard touchdown run, getting the best of the league’s leading rusher in Alexander, who finished with 95 yards on 20 carries in Super Bowl XL.
A rushing leader did not reach the Super Bowl again until Chrisitan McCaffrey for the 2023 49ers, another team who struck gold by making a deal for a veteran back. So, the Chiefs have some experience in this regard as we talked last year about McCaffrey potentially winning Super Bowl MVP. But he fumbled on the opening drive, finished with 160 yards from scrimmage, scored one touchdown, and the 49ers lost in overtime.
But Barkley is a bigger rushing threat than CMC was behind this line from the Eagles. You could argue this is the most lethal running back and line combo since Davis was on those great Denver teams in 1997-98.
Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards this season. Kansas City’s leading rusher is Kareem Hunt, who took over for an injured Isiah Pacheco and has looked like the best back in Kansas City. Still, Hunt only had 728 yards this year, producing a difference of 1,277 yards between the Eagles and Chiefs as far as their leading rushers go.
That makes this the first Super Bowl in history where the teams had greater than a 1,000-yard difference in their lead back’s rushing yards. The previous record was in 1995 when Emmitt Smith had 960 more yards for Dallas than Pittsburgh’s Erric Pegram.
Alas, 8 of the last 10 Super Bowl winners were at a deficit in rushing yards going into the big matchup. In fact, 9 of the last 10 Super Bowl winners did not have a 1,000-yard running back (LeGarrette Blount rushed for 1,161 yards for the 2016 Patriots).
Maybe Barkley will put a bow on his magical season (and 28th birthday) with a memorable rushing performance in the Super Bowl. But in the 21st century, teams just haven’t needed a back like this to get the job done. That’s why Isiah Pacheco, LeGarrette Blount, and Sony Michel have won multiple rings as the leading rushers for their teams while the likes of Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, and Barkley have come up empty to this point.
How Will the Chiefs Slow Down Saquon?
Super Bowl LIX presents a fascinating matchup between Steve Spagnuolo’s defense and a Philadelphia offense that has the talent to do anything it wants. The question is will Spagnuolo make Jalen Hurts beat them, or is it another big Barkley night? It probably won’t be both.
This is a historic matchup in that an AFC team usually plays an NFC team every four years. But the Eagles and Chiefs are meeting for a post-merger record fourth year in a row, so there is familiarity here between the coaching staff and with Spagnuolo against Hurts.
It might shock you to learn that the Chiefs have outrushed the Eagles in their last three head-to-head meetings. Hurts was the team’s leading rusher in both the 2021 and 2022 meetings, including Super Bowl 57 where Hurts rushed for 70 yards while his running backs were held to 17 carries for 45 yards. When the teams last met in 2023, D’Andre Swift pitched in 76 yards for a better effort despite the Chiefs still winning the rushing battle 168-114.
Now you can make the argument that Miles Sanders and Swift are no match for the 2024 version of Barkley, and that’s fair. Barkley has 14 games with 100 rushing yards this year, and he’s only been held under 84 yards in three games. Only the Browns (47) held Barkley under 65 rushing yards.
But we also need to recognize that the long runs are a big part of Barkley’s season. His rushing success rate (using the method of 40/60/100% of need yards by down) is 52.5% this season. That’s good and a career-high, but it’s still lower than the likes of Pacheco (53.0%), James Cook (53.1%), Jahmyr Gibbs (53.6%), Chuba Hubbard (54.8%), Kareem Hunt (55.5%), and Derrick Henry (58.8%) among others.
It’s not like Barkley is going to keep ripping off 6 and 8-yard gains all night long. There’s more of a boom-or-bust element to his season, and lately, he’s been leaning on these home runs in the playoffs. In fact, Barkley’s rushing success rate has fallen to 43.9% in the playoffs, something few are noticing because of the touchdowns.
But take his last couple of games against Washington, a poor run defense, as good examples. In Week 16 in Washington, the last time the Eagles lost a game, Barkley was incredible early with a 68-yard touchdown run. But the Commanders held him to 41 yards on his last 22 carries and the Eagles failed to close the game out.
In the NFC Championship Game against Washington, Barkley’s first play of the day was another 60-yard touchdown run. Amazing stuff. But he seemed to tweak a hamstring or had an issue with his leg that he was getting worked out. His last 14 carries gained 58 yards, the kind of production the Chiefs will gladly live with here.
Even if Barkley hits another home run, the Chiefs can live with that as long as it’s a singular moment. But even when Barkley broke a 78-yard touchdown run with 4:36 left in the divisional round against the Rams, that didn’t end the game despite it giving the Eagles a 28-15 lead. The Rams were still 13 yards away from the end zone and a game-winning touchdown before Matthew Stafford took the kind of sack that Patrick Mahomes is good at avoiding with the game on the line.
See, had Barkley not gone the distance and the Eagles worked the clock there using the four-minute offense, they would have won that game a lot more comfortably. If you’re going to give up a touchdown, you’d prefer it to be one play like that to maximize saved time to answer. The Chiefs need to avoid giving up long drives to the Eagles like they had a few times in the Super Bowl two years ago.
But this Kansas City defense is not one that Barkley is likely going to rip for huge yards like he did to the Rams and Commanders:
- The Chiefs are No. 8 in rushing yards allowed, only giving up more than 160 yards to the Ravens (Week 1) and Steelers (Week 17) in games they still won.
- The Chiefs are No. 7 in rushing yards per carry (4.1), and No. 5 on plays where they have an equal number or more defenders than the offense has blockers.
- The Chiefs held Derrick Henry to a season-low 46 rushing yards in Week 1, though one could argue he was not at his peak in his Baltimore debut.
- Three of the five longest runs allowed by the Chiefs this year were quarterback scrambles.
But it’s also true that the Chiefs have allowed at least 139 rushing yards in five of their last six games after doing so once in the first 13 games. They’ve also allowed some of their longest runs of the season in that time, including a season-long 62-yard touchdown run by Cleveland’s Jerome Ford where cornerbacks like Nazeeh Johnson and rookie Christian Roland-Wallace were either blocked out of the play or took the wrong angle.
Still, the only other run of more than 28 yards that the Chiefs have allowed all year was a 33-yard scamper by James Cook of the Bills last week. The Chiefs have allowed just three rushing touchdowns longer than 7 yards this year.
A big part of Barkley’s success this season is getting to the outside and getting into the open field where he can showcase his speed (or a backward hurdle). Barkley has 11 runs where he reached 20 miles per hour, more than double the next closest players who have five according to NFL Pro.
The Chiefs have allowed one run of 20+ MPH this season, and you just saw it above with Ford. As for runs of 15+ MPH, Alvin Kamara is the only running back to have four of those in a game against Kansas City’s starting defense. Barkley has 11 games with at least four such runs this season, so if anyone can neutralize his speed and keep him contained, it might be the Chiefs.
Like McCaffrey last year, Barkley could very well finish this game with a touchdown and solid yards from scrimmage numbers. But whether that translates into a win and an MVP is a much different story. The Chiefs are tough to fully crack.
Is Running Even the Right Strategy Against Kansas City?
Finally, let’s consider the fact that no team has ever been more equipped to overcome an incredible game from Saquon on his birthday while still denying him a win than the Chiefs.
Since 2018, players who rush for 100 yards in a game are 9-13 (.409) against the Chiefs and 539-186-4 (.742) against the rest of the NFL. The Chiefs are the only team with a winning record against 100-yard rushers at this time.
The numbers are even better in recent years since the Chiefs have gotten stronger defensively. They were just 3-6 (.333) when allowing a 100-yard rusher at the start of the Mahomes era. Nothing special. But going back to December 2019 when they were gearing up for their first Super Bowl run, they are 10-3 (.769) in their last 13 games against 100-yard rushers. Absurd record.
That’s why you have to wonder if it’s not in Philadelphia’s best interest to lean on Hurts and his receivers. The Eagles are 9-0 this season when he passes for over 200 yards. He’s had his career-high games in passing yards in both the regular season and postseason against the Chiefs. He has a tight end in Dallas Goedert who could have a big night against the defense that allowed the most yards to tight ends in 2024.
But that’s moving into general preview territory, and we’ll continue that discussion later this week. This was just some food for thought if you’re wondering if Saquon Barkley will have the kind of Super Bowl that could usher in a new era of teams spending significant resources on running backs again if they can produce a championship run like this.
Just remember to build an elite offensive line and top-ranked defense first.
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