The 2025-26 NBA season has reached All-Star Weekend with a new format that could be good with Team USA vs. Team World at a time when many of the elite players are international players. But one player you won’t see represent Team World on Sunday is Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP and Finals MVP.
It’s an abdominal strain for SGA that could keep him out another week as injuries are once again causing havoc in another NBA season. We got the NBA news this week that LeBron James will not qualify for any NBA honors, including the All-NBA teams he’s made a record 21 years in a row, because he’s missed too many games where he won’t be able to hit the 65-game threshold required for such honors.
That’s really causing some issues with awards as even Nikola Jokic missed 16 games due to injury for Denver, so he can’t sit out more than two games the rest of the season or he won’t be able to win MVP (he’s second in odds) or first-team All-NBA again.
But the NBA has bigger fish to fry than just hoping to put on a good All-Star weekend or who wins awards. This season got off to a rocky start with the gambling investigations into Terry Rozier and coach Chauncey Billups, and now we’re seeing the penalty for teams deliberately “tanking” with steep fines for the Utah Jazz ($500,000) and Indiana Pacers ($100,000) for how they’ve managed their player minutes in recent games, seemingly trying to lose on purpose.
There’s a little over two months before the NBA playoffs begin in April, so hopefully things will perk up by then because the complaints about the quality of play right now are widespread and frankly valid. Even Bill Simmons has called out the effort in the regular season.
ESPN has also ruined, as many expected, the Inside the NBA show that TNT had with Charles Barkley and the guys barely getting any airtime all these months. One bright spot has been the presentation on NBC’s NBA coverage with Mike Tirico leading play-by-play has been excellent. Definitely a win for the league and it should be even better come playoff time when the games are bigger.
Another bright spot has been the rookie class after what was a disappointing 2024 class. Cooper Flagg has lived up to the No. 1 pick status for Dallas as he’s doing some incredible things already at 19 years old. He’s dealing with a foot injury at the moment, but in the last six games, Flagg is averaging 32.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game while shooting .526/.455/.844. He’s special like they said he’d be.
Not to be outdone, Flagg’s former Duke teammate Kon Knueppel already looks like one of the best 3-point shooters in the league for Charlotte. He’s shooting .431 from deep and averaging 18.9 points per game, which only trails Flagg among rookies. We’ve also seen solid contributions from VJ Edgecombe (76ers), Cedric Coward (Grizzlies), and Dylan Harper (Spurs).
But we started last offseason with the lead story about whether the Thunder could end the NBA’s repeat drought as no one’s done it since the Warriors in 2017-18. They are favored to do so even if they’ve cooled down after a hot start. But we’ll get into the latest NBA Finals odds at the All-Star break below with a look at how the notable teams are doing.
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2026 NBA Finals Odds Update
Remember when the Indiana Pacers almost pulled off the greatest upset in modern NBA history last year as a +6600 preseason favorite to win it all? This year, the Pacers are 15-40 without Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles). The chances of another Cinderella emerging are not looking great either, but that’s why Indiana’s run was so special last year as this league just doesn’t produce stories like that enough.
Right now, there are 11 teams at FanDuel with better than +8000 odds to win the NBA Finals this June. Here is the list:
- Oklahoma City Thunder (+120)
- Denver Nuggets (+600)
- San Antonio Spurs (+1300)
- New York Knicks (+1300)
- Boston Celtics (+1300)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (+1300)
- Detroit Pistons (+1400)
- Houston Rockets (+2200)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (+2500)
- Los Angeles Lakers (+4500)
- Philadelphia 76ers (+4500)
There are three teams who had a shot based on preseason odds this season who have fallen off in a hurry and are now big longshots to do anything:
- Los Angeles Clippers (opened +1800, currently +50000): They got off to that abysmal 6-21 start and have tried to rally behind Kawhi Leonard to get back to 26-28, but they also traded James Harden to Cleveland for Darius Garland.
- Orlando Magic (opened +1800, currently +8000): The Magic are still No. 7 in the East (28-25), but their defense has fallen off from last year (from No. 2 to No. 14 in Defensive Rating) and they rank 28th in 3P%.
- Golden State Warriors (opened +2500, currently +25000): The Warriors (29-26) are just 4-7 in their last 11 games and suffered a big blow when Jimmy Butler tore his ACL. Steph Curry has also missed the last five games with a knee injury for a team where age and injury have caught up to them.
But let’s look at the real title contenders right now.
Are the Thunder Ready for a Repeat Run?
Oklahoma City’s title defense could not have started much better than it did. Even with Jalen Williams, their second-best player, sidelined for the first 19 games with injury, the Thunder started 24-1, and their only loss was when they blew a 22-point lead against Portland.
But then the Thunder were eliminated in the NBA Cup semifinals by the Spurs, so they didn’t add that trophy to their collection. Then just 10 days later, the Thunder took a 130-110 walloping in San Antonio. Two days later on Christmas, the Spurs went into OKC’s building and again bossed them around in a 117-102 win. The Thunder were 26-5 with three losses to the Spurs in two weeks.
That put the league on notice that the West may very well have a new contender this year. But while the Thunder continued to win, their play over the last month has been quite underwhelming.
After OKC showed on January 13 that they can in fact beat San Antonio this year, they are just 7-7 in their last 14 games. On Thursday night, they lost 110-93 at home to a Milwaukee team without Giannis Antetokounmpo. It was the eighth time this year the Thunder lost as a double-digit favorite. To think people were asking if this team could win over 70 games.
- First 41 games: 34-7, 118.2 Offensive Rating, 105.4 Defensive Rating, +12.8 Net Rating
- Last 15 games: 8-7, 116.8 Offensive Rating, 109.0 Defensive Rating, +7.9 Net Rating
The Thunder are 2-3 with SGA missing the last five games, and they are over +10.0 points better in Net Rating with him on the court this year, so that’s a big part of the problem right now. But even when he comes back, we’ll see if the Thunder can recapture their magic from early in the season.
Dominating the turnover battle has been the secret sauce to OKC’s success in the last few seasons, and that’s still intact this year with their relentless pursuit and protection of the ball:
The Thunder are -3.8% in net turnover percentage to lead all NBA teams this year. That’s better than their mark from two years ago (-2.3%) and the only team with a better rate in the last three seasons was the 2024-25 Thunder at -4.5%. They’re still hustling better than anyone as the Thunder lead the NBA again in deflections (21.2) and contested shots (45.8) per game.
SGA is the MVP favorite again (-220 at FanDuel) as his numbers are as good as ever. In fact, his PER is a career-high 31.6 as he’s shooting a career-best .554 from the field. He’s also shooting the 3 (.390) better than usual.
The Thunder have their key players from last year to go on another run. It was also a smart move to pick up Jared McCain from the 76ers, a talented player who is just about to turn 22 years old and has room to grow in this system.
Can the Nuggets or Spurs Stop the Thunder from Repeating?
If the Thunder are going to be dethroned, it sure feels like it’s most likely to happen in the Western Conference playoffs rather than the NBA Finals. The odds agree as the Denver Nuggets (+600) and San Antonio Spurs (+1300) have the next best odds to go the distance this year.
It makes sense too. You have the best player in the world in Nikola Jokic who already came close to upsetting them last season in the semifinals. Then Victor Wembanyama is the next phenom, and the Spurs have already pulled off a stunning 4-1 record against the Thunder this season winning in a variety of ways.
San Antonio (38-16) has the second-best record in the NBA right now, and this is a great development for the league. We’ve talked about how time is running low for the legends like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry. The young superstars are going to have to be ready to take up the mantle when they’re gone, and Wemby is stepping up right now as he can be absolutely dominant at times like when he scored 40 points in just 26 minutes against the Lakers this week.
Granted, the Lakers fielded an amateur starting five, but Wemby has that ability to take over games. The Spurs haven’t made the playoffs since 2019, but between drafting Wemby, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and adding De’Aaron Fox as a clutch scorer, this roster is legit, and they’re getting it done on both ends (No. 8 in Offensive Rating, No. 3 in Defensive Rating).
Of course, doing it in the playoffs is the real test, and we’ll see if they can make it through to match up with the Thunder. That’s why Denver’s veteran group may have the better shot in the end as the Nuggets are close behind with a 35-20 record. Jokic is again averaging a triple-double with 28.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 10.7 assists. He can become the first player in NBA history to lead the league in rebounds and assists per game in the same season.
However, Jokic has some help as Jamal Murray has stepped up this year with a career-high 25.7 points per game and .485 FG%, earning him his first All-Star selection. That means we can retire that stat that Jokic has never had a teammate earn any award or individual honor during his career.
But it’s also true that ever since Jokic returned from injury, the Nuggets haven’t played well, so they’ll need to regroup after the All-Star break and get back on track. For what it’s worth, they lost their only meeting (121-111) with the Thunder two weeks ago, but they’ll see them three more times in the regular season.
The Crowded Eastern Conference
The oddsmakers are not sure what to make of the Eastern Conference, which we knew would have a different look with the Achilles injuries to Jayson Tatum (Celtics) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers). Giannis has also been injured and the Bucks are just a 23-30 afterthought.
The Detroit Pistons have the best record at 40-13, but they are +1400 to win the NBA Finals, sitting just behind a 3-way tie at +1300 odds for the Cleveland Cavaliers (34-21), New York Knicks (35-20), and Boston Celtics (35-19). Very tight.
Detroit’s ascension is keyed by great play from its young All-Stars in Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren, and they are also No. 2 in Defensive Rating. They’re not the Bad Boys or the 2000s Pistons on defense, but they’re holding up in this flashy 3-point shooting era.
The Celtics have one of the best coaches in Joe Mazzulla, so that’s how they can hold down the fort without Tatum, who is trying to get back in time for the playoffs. Jaylen Brown has done a fantastic job in the alpha role with 29.3 points per game to easily lead the team in scoring, and they still have capable scorers like Derrick White and Payton Pritchard to go along with Nikola Vucevic, who they just traded Anfernee Simons for.
Cleveland made perhaps the biggest trade this year with sending guard Darius Garland to the Clippers for James Harden, pairing the Bearded One with Donovan Mitchell, who is still hoping to reach his first Conference Finals before turning 30. The Cavs have slipped a bit on both ends of the court from last year when they won 64 games, and given Harden’s documented playoff struggles, we’ll see if messing with team chemistry like this was a good idea or not. To be fair, Garland started the year less than 100% and seemed to have peaked already.
The Knicks made that bold coaching move to replace Tom Thibodeau with Mike Brown. Right now, the team is statistically stronger than last year, ranked No. 3 in Offensive Rating and No. 10 in Defensive Rating. You always got a shot in the playoffs with Jalen Brunson’s ability to raise his game, but we’ll see if they can get the bench scoring they need this year, and if they can stay healthy to deal with these capable Eastern Conference rivals.
Detroit’s inexperience and Cleveland’s chemistry questions make them tougher sells to go the distance. The Celtics are a scary team if Tatum can return and play at an adequate level as they know how to score and defend even if their roster isn’t as deep as it was when they won the championship two years ago. The Knicks have the talent and experience to get it done, but it should be tough matchups in multiple rounds with these teams all aiming for the Finals.
Any Hope for the Longshots with Luka, Ant, Embiid, and KD?
Finally, if there’s any longshot that’s going to make a run this year to the Finals, it’d be among the group including the Lakers, 76ers, Timberwolves, or Rockets.
The Lakers (33-21) continue to be statistically underwhelming as they’re just 17th in Net Rating, Injuries have made it so that Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves are rarely all on the court at the same time this season, and it’s debatable if their chemistry is really that great. LeBron did just become the oldest player (41) to record a triple-double last night in a win over Dallas, but Luka is currently injured with a hamstring problem.
The Rockets (33-20) are more or less getting the scoring (25.8 points per game) they expected from acquiring Kevin Durant even at age 37. Alperen Sengun has also benefitted from his presence in an All-Star season with 20.7 points and 9.4 rebounds. But the team is missing point guard Fred VanVleet, who tore his ACL before the season started. Amen Thompson has done well but he shoots just .205 from 3-point range. Still, the Rockets are No. 6 in Net Rating and in better shape for the playoffs than they were without Durant last year.
The Timberwolves (34-22) continue to get solid play out of their core of Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid is the favorite to win the Sixth Man of the Year for what would be a second time. Their numbers are fine on both ends, but it’s just a question of whether they have enough to get over the hump in the playoffs against teams like the Thunder, Nuggets, and Spurs.
If there’s a longshot from the East, the 76ers (30-24) could be that team if Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid can stay healthy with help from rookie VJ Edgecombe. But the 76ers haven’t advanced past the semifinals in 25 years, and Paul George was suspended 25 games for taking improper medication.
Best NBA Finals Pick Today
If I go back to my picks in October for the NBA Finals, I had the Nuggets beating the Knicks. Today, I don’t love it, but I certainly don’t hate it either. New York’s chemistry and playoff experience (eliminated by the Pacers twice) could really be a difference maker in the spring, and we don’t know exactly what shape Tatum will be in when or if he returns to the court.
As much as I’d like to pick something like the 2005 throwback of Spurs vs. Pistons for something fresh with young teams, their youth and inexperience in the playoffs is a good reason to fade them from going all the way this year. But they do have the talent to get it done.
The Nuggets also have the experience factor to an even higher degree than the Knicks with this core winning it all in 2023. But can they stay healthy through the playoffs? Aaron Gordon didn’t last year. Also, did they add enough new talent to really get them over the Thunder?
I’d probably throw in a hedge with Knicks beating Nuggets, but knowing the way the NBA is, Tatum will come back and play great and we’ll get a matchup of the last two champions in the Celtics and Thunder. Yeah, I think I’d go with that today along with a little action on Spurs vs. Knicks to party like it’s 1999.
Scott’s 2026 NBA Finals Pick: Thunder to defeat Celtics (+899 at FanDuel).
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