Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Are They Still the Kings of the NFC South?

Scott Kacsmar21/08/2025 - 10:56 am

Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — (Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were one of the NFL teams who never won a division title in back-to-back years. But they’ve won the NFC South the last four years, surviving everything from a coaching change to Todd Bowles, a losing record (8-9) in 2022, Baker Mayfield replacing a retired Tom Brady, and getting swept by the Falcons last year on the way to a 4-6 start.

But the Buccaneers keep finding ways to win this division, which hasn’t had a team with 11 wins since 2021. In fact, the Bucs are just 27-24 under Bowles (28-27 if you include the playoffs).

Despite those big changes at coach and quarterback, the roster has largely kept things together under GM Jason Licht. This is also the third year together for Mayfield and Bowles, so there’s a lot of continuity here even if the main question in 2025 will be about the new offensive coordinator after Liam Coen, our surprise pick for Coach of the Year, left for Jacksonville.

The Buccaneers are tied for the 13th-highest odds to win Super Bowl LX (+2500 at FanDuel). Given they’re ranked No. 8 in the NFC on that list, even just making the playoffs again is far from a lock, but that’s where owning the NFC South comes into play even if it could set up for another No. 4 seed and difficult path to February football.

But the team certainly has the talent to keep things rolling even if it is difficult to win a division five years in a row, which we’ll examine below. We’ll also look at a few new players in Tampa Bay this year and make our best Buccaneers bets for 2025.

Previously on BUCCANEERS: The Adventures of Buckaroo Baker Across the 2nd Dimension

As we looked at with the Carolina Panthers, if how you fared against the teams that made the Super Bowl last year, the Eagles and Chiefs, is a good indicator of your team’s quality, then the Buccaneers should feel pretty good about themselves. Not sure if it’s a fair indicator or not to judge a team, but Tampa passes that test.

The Buccaneers handed the 2024 Eagles their only poor performance of the season. It was in Week 4 in Tampa, and the Bucs were up 24-0 in the second quarter. At one point, the Bucs led 254-0 in yards in that game before winning 33-16.

Then in Week 9 in Kansas City against the 7-0 Chiefs on a Monday night, the Bucs had a fourth-quarter lead and were in overtime despite not having their top wide receivers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) due to injuries. They lost that one 30-24 after the Chiefs scored a touchdown.

Those were quality performances that speak to the Bucs being a real contender. They also won 20-16 in Detroit, a team that finished 15-2, in Week 2, another huge win. Despite these games, the Buccaneers were still just 4-6 going into their bye week. They played a horrible game at home in a 26-7 loss to the Broncos, they lost a 36-30 shootout in Atlanta, who swept them, and they gave up 41 points at home to the Ravens’ elite offense.

The fact is it was a brutal schedule early, and the Buccaneers lost two overtime games with the offense never registering a possession. So, that 4-6 record could have just as easily been 6-4 if Baker and his guys got the ball.

When we say to “check the schedule” for a team, this is what we mean. While you couldn’t have predicted the Cowboys (with backup Cooper Rush playing for an injured Dak Prescott) would be so bad in 2024, that was actually the only game the Bucs lost after their bye. They were 6-1 to close the season, and the only team they played that didn’t have 10-plus losses was the Chargers, which was an impressive road win where they dropped 40 points on the No. 1 scoring defense.

We really saw the best of Baker Mayfield in the 2024 season with Liam Coen, a Sean McVay guy he briefly worked with for the 2022 Rams, replacing Dave Canales (Panthers coach) at offensive coordinator. While Mayfield had a higher QBR in the 2020 season with Cleveland, you can chalk that up to COVID and the empty stadiums and that being the most offensive season ever.

I’d say 2024 was Mayfield’s best season as he set career highs in completion percentage (71.4%), passing yards (4,500), passing touchdowns (41), yards per attempt (7.9), passer rating (106.8), and adjusted net yards per attempt (7.13). The reason his QBR (61.6) was lower than 2020 (65.5) is because he threw 16 interceptions and fumbled 13 times, both numbers leading the league or tied for the lead in 2024. Advanced metrics hate those negative plays, though sometimes they’re not your fault or they’re situation based.

Mayfield’s passing success rate was also 53.9%, the best of his career, so he really took a liking to the quicker passing game in 2024. He should also get credit for doing this in a season where the reliable Chris Godwin missed 10 full games and Mike Evans missed three full games. The Buccaneers also worked in rookie back Bucky Irving, who showed up Rachaad White and finished with 1,122 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. The Bucs were No. 4 in rushing yards and No. 3 in yards per carry (5.3), so this was a complete offense.

That’s why it was frustrating to lose the first playoff game at home the way this team did, because if anyone was built to go on a deep run with favorable outcomes already in hand against the Eagles, Lions, and Chiefs, it was Tampa Bay. But in the wild card against Washington, the Bucs had few answers for Jayden Daniels, the rookie they humbled by 17 points in his Week 1 NFL debut, but by January, he was poised to deliver on the road.

It ended up being a 23-20 game where each offense only had seven possessions as the Commanders converted 11 times on third and fourth down, and the Bucs saw Baker complete 15-of-18 passes in a quick-moving game.

But the problem when you only get seven possessions is that any big mistake gets magnified as you have less margin for error to make up for it. The Bucs were up 17-13 in the fourth quarter and had just stopped Washington in the red zone on fourth down. But four plays later, an aborted snap to Mayfield was fumbled and recovered by the Commanders, setting them up for a 13-yard touchdown drive to take the lead.

Tampa ended up settling for a game-tying field goal after the run game was stopped on consecutive snaps with 1 yard to gain. In fact, Irving lost 2 yards on 3rd-and-1, so they couldn’t even save the 4th-and-1 opportunity to go for it. They kicked the field goal to tie it with 4:41 left, but the defense was unable to get Daniels off the field, and Washington won on a field goal with no time left.

Just like that, the Buccaneers lost a home playoff game for the third time in four seasons.

Buccaneers: The Difficulty of Sustaining Division Dominance

It’s hard to stay on top of a division for long in the NFL. Players get injured, they change teams, they retire, and new stars and powers emerge on other teams. Ever since the NFL moved to an 8-division realignment in 2002, the 2021-24 Buccaneers are just the 11th team to win a division at least four years in a row.

Something that makes Tampa’s streak stand out is that it’s the only one where two quarterbacks started for 50% each of the streak. Some of these streaks are still active as the Chiefs are going for a 10th-straight AFC West title, winning the last seven with Patrick Mahomes. The Bills are going for their 6th-straight AFC East title since Josh Allen’s breakout season in 2020.

Those streaks are still alive, but what happened to cause the other eight streaks to end? Let’s look at them, and as you might expect, it’s the quarterback’s presence that usually was the deciding factor. Half of the examples involve Peyton Manning and Tom Brady:

The Patriots won the AFC East 16 times from 2003-19, only missing out in 2008 when Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week 1, ending a 5-year streak despite the team still going 11-5 with a quarterback who hadn’t started a game since high school (Matt Cassel). When Brady returned, the Patriots set a record with an 11-year division streak, which promptly ended in 2020 after Brady left for Tampa Bay and Allen stepped up for the Bills.
The Colts won the AFC South five years in a row in 2003-07, then couldn’t overcome Tennessee’s 10-0 start in 2008 after Manning got off to a slow start (3-4) after offseason surgery, but when he later left for Denver, that helped the Broncos to a 5-year run in 2011-15, which promptly ended after Manning retired.
The 2004-07 Seahawks won the NFC West four years in a row behind Mike Holmgren and Matt Hasselbeck, but everything fell apart for that team in 2008 (4-12), and Kurt Warner, who took the job back from Matt Leinart, ended up leading the Cardinals to the Super Bowl.
The 2006-09 Chargers had a 4-year run in the AFC West behind Philip Rivers, but the 2010 team couldn’t turn their gaudy stats into enough wins (9-7), and Matt Cassel helped the Chiefs (10-6) to a surprise division title.
The 2011-14 Packers had a 4-year reign in the NFC North during Aaron Rodgers’ MVP prime, but his play took a step back after a 6-0 start in 2015 (Jordy Nelson was out for the year), and the Vikings edged them out for the title behind a young Teddy Bridgewater.
The 2017-20 Saints already won the NFC South four years in a row, but that reign ended once Drew Brees retired, paving the way for the Bucs behind Brady to start their run that’s continued for Bowles and Mayfield.

It’s interesting how much these streaks overlap with Cassel’s name even coming up twice. Kansas City’s streak starting after Manning retired. Tampa’s streak starting after Brees retired. Buffalo’s streak starting after Brady left New England. It makes sense in a league that sometimes doesn’t.

What would that mean in Tampa Bay’s case for 2025? The No. 1 fear would be a newcomer like Michael Penix Jr. in Atlanta has a breakout year, outplays Mayfield, and elevates the Falcons to their best season in years, something we may have already predicted yesterday. It feels far more likely than Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough turning the Saints around in 2025. Something more plausible than New Orleans would be a breakout year from Bryce Young in Carolina.

So, there are challenges like that for the Buccaneers to stay on top. Then you consider the loss of the offensive coordinator, Mike Evans just turned 32 literally today, Lavonte David will be 36 in January, Chris Godwin is likely out the first six weeks, etc.

This is a team that took the wild card route during COVID to win the Super Bowl in their home stadium. But five years will have passed since then, so the team has gotten older, and out of those 11 teams to win their division this many times in a row, the 2021-24 Bucs are the only team who didn’t get to at least one Conference Championship Game.

2009-19 Patriots: 3-2 in Super Bowls
2016-24 Chiefs: 3-2 in Super Bowls
2003-07 Patriots: 2-1 in Super Bowls
2003-07 Colts: 1-0 in Super Bowl
2011-15 Broncos: 1-1 in Super Bowls
2020-24 Bills: 0-2 in Conference Championship Game
2004-07 Seahawks: 0-1 in Super Bowl
2006-09 Chargers: 0-1 in Conference Championship Game
2011-14 Packers: 0-1 in Conference Championship Game
2017-20 Saints: 0-1 in Conference Championship Game
2021-24 Buccaneers: 0-2 in Divisional Round

Not to call the Bucs a polar bear spotted in Texas, but they stand out on this list for not a particularly good reason. Let’s see if they can keep the streak going and get better as a team, or if we’ve already seen this era of Tampa football peak.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Review

We can expect head coach Todd Bowles to continue being assertive with calling his defense this season. But the real change is with offensive coordinator in replacing Liam Coen. Let’s look at the few new players and hurdles with the roster this year.

Another New-ish Offense for Baker Mayfield

At this point of his career, Baker Mayfield should be used to a new offensive coach. He’s on his fourth team, he had numerous coaches in Cleveland alone, and here we go again after a very successful year with Liam Coen, who Mayfield had some familiarity with before last season.

Well, he knows the new offensive coordinator, Josh Grizzard, even better this year. Grizzard is 35 and was doing quality control work for the Dolphins under Adam Gase and Brian Flores. But he joined Tampa’s staff last year and was the pass game coordinator, so hopefully not a ton will change here after the balanced success between the run and pass last year.

But things could look different (read: worse) because of injuries as the Bucs have had one of the worst offseasons of any team on that front. This seems like it could matter more than the play-caller change.

Chris Godwin hasn’t played since Week 7 last year when he broke his ankle late in the Baltimore loss. His recovery has been tough, and it sounds like you should probably not expect him in the first six games of the season.

While the Bucs are very deep at wide receiver and can overcome this with ease, that’s also being tested right away. Rookie Jalen McMillan was very solid last year with eight touchdown catches, but he suffered a scary neck injury in Pittsburgh in the preseason game and could reportedly miss half the season.

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan will start 2025 season on IR with a neck injury and miss several weeks as a result of this hit Saturday by Steelers CB Daryl Porter. Was not dirty, just unfortunate. #Steelers #NFL pic.twitter.com/vejzOSv6TR
— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot) August 19, 2025

That’s not good. But they still have Mike Evans, right? He continued his streak of 1,000-yard seasons by getting it on the final throw of the final game. He can actually move out of a tie with the legend Jerry Rice for 12 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, a new record. Maybe he gets there without Godwin and McMillan early in the season, but Evans, 32, is getting to that age where he could fall off a cliff – figuratively, but you never know with these Tampa injuries in 2025 – and stop producing like a WR1.

Suddenly, it makes a lot of sense why the Buccaneers used the No. 19 pick in the first round of the draft on Ohio State wideout Emeka Egbuka. He didn’t seem like a real need in April, but he’s probably the future WR1 in Tampa Bay, and that future could be here soon. He comes from a wide receiver factory and looks the part too, so he’ll have a chance to shine right away.

The weapons should be enough, including tight end Cade Otton. Don’t forget Bucky Irving in the backfield where he surged ahead of Rachaad White as the better runner, but White is still a useful receiving back after the Bucs had a lot of success on screens last year, which is hard to replicate.

But there is another big concern with the offensive line. Tristan Wirfs is an elite left tackle but he had knee surgery and his timetable for a return is also up in the air. That’s definitely one to monitor early this year.

It’s possible players like Godwin and Wirfs are never 100% this year on top of missing games. Throw in a first-time coordinator, Evans’ age, and Mayfield coming off a career year, and it’s very reasonable to think the Buccaneers take a step back from their offensive success in 2024, including the best conversion rate on third downs (50.9%). That is something the great quarterbacks can sustain in this league, but are we sure Mayfield is in that tier and can do it consistently? The Bucs were 10th on third down in 2023 (41.5%) and 30th in the red zone at scoring touchdowns that year.

We won’t pretend they let the next Bill Walsh get away in Liam Coen, but the Buccaneers are probably going to need the defense to improve to stay on top of the NFC South.

Is the Defense Good Enough to Win a Championship for the Buccaneers?

If the offense takes a step back, the defense needs to step up to balance that out. Last year’s defense was middling in most key categories save for run defense, mostly thanks to Vita Vea. You might be able to get to a Super Bowl with that unit, but it won’t work without an elite offense.

When the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl in 2020, that was the team’s best defense since at least the 2007 season. They had a great mix of veterans (Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh), players in their prime (Lavonte David, Vita Vea, Shaquil Barrett), and youngsters who played well (Devin White, Antoine Winfield Jr., Jordan Whitehead, Sean Murphy-Bunting, etc.). Everyone contributed greatly to that Super Bowl run.

By the time you get to 2025, Barrett retired, White fell off and left the team, Vea is still good at 30, and David is 35 and still producing. But you don’t have a lot of players at their peak, and the Bucs signed Haason Reddick to try to be that big edge rusher in Barrett’s absence. Reddick had 11 sacks for the 2023 Eagles, but he got into a contract dispute with the Jets last year and did very little (1 sack in 10 games). He’s also about to turn 31.

Winfield Jr. and Jamel Dean still lead the secondary, but that’s the area where the Bucs are trying to get younger. They used a second-round pick on corner Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame) and a third-round pick on Jacob Parrish (Kansas State), who could play the nickel.

Will they regret drafting a wide receiver like Egbuka at No. 19 when a corner like Jahdae Barron (Broncos) or edge rusher like James Pearce Jr. (Falcons) were on the board? Maybe not. But after getting zero takeaways in your last four games and playing some of your worst ball against the Falcons (twice) in your division and the Chiefs and Ravens from the AFC, the Bucs are really not close to a defense that the team can lean on to contend.

But we’ll see if any of those young corners step up, or if Reddick can turn the clock back to when he was a productive sack master in any scheme. This defense needs a lot more of that edge pressure after calling the third-highest blitz rate in the league last year. Bowles is no stranger to doing that, but it can be a lot more effective when you’re blitzing quality players who finish more.

Best Bets for the 2025 Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have a good team, but unless Egbuka is the next Randy Moss or Ja’Marr Chase, rookie wide receivers usually don’t have a transformative effect on an offense. With an inexperienced play-caller who they just promoted in-house to the injuries they’re dealing with at tackle and wideout, and the sometimes erratic play of Mayfield, it just feels like the offense should take a step back and the defense may still not be top 10.

If you had the No. 8 offense and No. 14 defense, you could certainly win games with that setup, but there’s no real reason to pick the Buccaneers to surge forward with a better year. The question is what does the schedule look like, especially early on if they’re without Wirfs and Godwin?

Week 1 is arguably the Game of the Year in the NFC South too with a trip to Atlanta with limited game film on Penix. The Bucs survived an Atlanta sweep last year, but they probably can’t afford to do that again in 2025. Need to at least get the Week 15 home rematch on a Thursday night.
Week 2 is Monday night in Houston, a solid team that’s comparable to this team.
Jets and Eagles come to Tampa in Weeks 3-4, so there’s an early litmus test for how they match up with the champs, who they have beaten decisively the last two meetings.
Trips to Seattle and Detroit won’t be easy, and the 49ers beat the Bucs in Tampa last year.
Really need to clean up in those games with the Saints and Panthers, but Carolina gave the Bucs fits in one meeting last year.
After the Week 9 bye, the Bucs have some AFC East games with what should be an improved New England team, and they have to go to Buffalo followed by in LA with the Rams, a tough stretch.
The saving grace could again be the final six weeks when the Bucs face the Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Dolphins, and Panthers twice.

Unless this team can repeat last year’s success against the Eagles and Lions, that record through seven games could look quite poor as it’s the toughest part of the year, a bad fact when you consider the injuries they go to Week 1 with.

The final six games could save a winning season, but I’m not going with this team to win 10 games again. In fact, I’m going under 9.5 wins and giving the Falcons the NFC South. The Buccaneers will miss the playoffs at no better than 9-8 after the NFC South just gets one playoff team again.

But to get specific, I would bet on Tampa to finish second in the division as the bottom won’t fall out. Let’s just go with Falcons-Bucs-Panthers-Saints as the order as something you can bet on for exact division finish.

Tampa is just not the kind of elite team that should be winning a division five years in a row. It’s time for someone else to rule in the NFC South.

NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 9.5 wins (-120) at FanDuel
NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers to miss playoffs (+126) at FanDuel
NFL Pick: NFC South Exact Order – 1st Atlanta, 2nd Tampa, 3rd Carolina, 4th New Orleans (+700) at FanDuel

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