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New England Patriots 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Will Mike Vrabel Bring the Patriots Back to Super Bowl Contention?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar22/08/2025 - 12:07 pm
New England Patriots QB Drake Maye
(Photo by Jonathan Wiggs/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

The New England Patriots have lost as many games over the last two regular seasons (26) as they did in the 8-year stretch from 2010-17 combined. They’ve had to rebuild from the end of the Bill Belichick era, but NFL teams can turn things around quickly as long as they find the right coach and quarterback.

The Patriots hope Drake Maye is that quarterback, and they should feel better about him now that they hired Mike Vrabel as their new head coach after a lame duck season from Jerod Mayo.

Vrabel sometimes erroneously gets included in Belichick’s coaching tree, but he never actually coached under him. He just soaked up a lot of information from him as a linebacker for eight seasons (2001-08). After a year off from his successful stint in Tennessee that was short-circuited by an absurd trade of A.J. Brown to Tennessee, Vrabel is getting a second chance as an NFL head coach with the Patriots, much like Belichick did in 2000.

But the landscape of the AFC East has changed as the Bills actually have an MVP quarterback in Josh Allen, and it’s no surprise they took up ownership of the division in 2020 once he started playing at a high level. Oddly enough, the Patriots are trying to dethrone Buffalo with the quarterback who may have the closest skillset to Allen’s, and they’re even trying to foster a breakout season with the same wide receiver (Stefon Diggs) that Allen got to play with in 2020.

When this season’s betting lines came out at the sportsbooks in May, people were stunned to see just how many games the 2025 Patriots were favored to win under Vrabel after a 4-13 season. The number was reportedly 11 games as favorites according to DraftKings odds.

The actual preseason win total for the Patriots is 8.5 games, and the juice is on the under. Still, a coach that’s had some success as an underdog and a blossoming second-year quarterback is a pretty good combo for a quick turnaround and winning season.

But are we putting the cart before the horse in saying the Patriots are back? Let’s examine their updated roster, why the schedule favors them so many times, and the best Patriots bets for 2025.

Previously on PATRIOTS: A Glimpse of the AFC East’s Future Is Just Drake & Josh?

Replacing a legendary coach like Bill Belichick with an in-house promotion like Jerod Mayo never passed the sniff test. Remember, it was Belichick the GM who got Belichick the coach fired. He could still coach defense, but the cupboards were bare on offense.

The results in 2024 were predictable. The team got just slightly better offensively with a better quarterback prospect in Drake Maye, but the defense got worse. The Patriots allowed their most points (417) since 1990. Oh, they also had the same 4-13 record as 2023, and that’s even with the Bills handing them a Week 18 win after resting starters with the No. 2 seed locked up.

You could say the 2024 Patriots peaked in September, and that was even before they stopped playing hide the quarterback with Jacoby Brissett and started Maye. They had an upset win, 16-10, in Cincinnati in Week 1, then never really did anything remarkable from there. We also know the Bengals have a poor September history, so that was more about timing than anything.

As for Maye, his rookie season wasn’t bad in the context that his best receivers were tight end Hunter Henry and a pair of second-year wideouts in Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte. Maye also was 25-of-32 for 287 yards when he threw to Kendrick Bourne – much better than the abysmal connection to second-round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk, who caught 3-of-14 targets for 13 yards from Maye. Are we sure Belichick didn’t make that receiver pick in 2024 as a parting gift?

Throw in some mediocre field position and a below-average defense that forced 12 takeaways all year, and Maye finishing 17th in QBR (58.6) is respectable, a number surely boosted by his good mobility that he displayed in the clutch on his most impressive touchdown of the year to force overtime in Tennessee:

Unfortunately, he was picked in overtime, so he’ll have to work on finishing games. In fact, finishing was a big issue for Maye in 2024. He left two starts early with injuries against the Jets and Bills, two games the Patriots went on to win without him.

Technically, that means the only win that Maye started and finished in 2024 was a 19-3 win over the Bears. He’s never won a game if the Patriots allowed more than a field goal, so there’s a reason to slow the roll on this team making a big leap forward in 2025.

Alas, they’ll have a real coach again this season.

New England Patriots Offseason Review

NFL Patriots Mike Vrabel

It’s not just Mike Vrabel returning to New England this year. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is back for a third stint and his first season with the team since 2021 when he helped rookie Mac Jones make the playoffs (and technically the Pro Bowl). We’ll also look at the defensive changes.

Mike Vrabel’s Shot at Redemption

One of the best coaching hires this year was Vrabel in New England. He brings instant credibility to that locker room as a 3-time Super Bowl-winning linebacker for that organization, and he’s a Coach of the Year winner in Tennessee where he was in an AFC Championship Game in 2019 and had the No. 1 seed in 2021. He’s probably still coaching in Tennessee if Ryan Tannehill didn’t throw all those picks against the Bengals, or if they didn’t trade A.J. Brown to the Eagles.

This is someone who has won multiple games against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who had some big wins over Allen and the Bills, and his teams were generally successful as underdogs. He’s a defensive guy at heart, but he’s not allergic to numbers, and he’s not afraid to go for it on fourth down or a 2-point conversion when most wouldn’t.

Vrabel is the type of coach who could do well after getting a second shot like we’ve seen before with Belichick (Browns to Patriots), Andy Reid (Eagles to Chiefs), and Marty Schottenheimer (Browns to Chiefs).

He’s also mad enough to say years ago that he’d cut his penis off to win another Super Bowl despite having three rings as a player.

This hiring should serve New England well, but it’s not a guarantee of instant success. Vrabel was 9-7 in his first Tennessee season in 2018. He had the same 9-7 record in 2019, but he went on that playoff run, starting with a win in New England, the last playoff game played at Gillette Stadium.

Still, Vrabel is one of the favorites for Coach of the Year, and if he were to make the playoffs, he’d have a great shot of winning that award this year. I’d throw him in some award parlays this year even if he’s not my top choice.

But we’ll see if things can come together quickly as this is not the AFC East as he left it years ago. Buffalo can actually throw the ball, Miami has some top-tier speed, and the Jets, well, they’re actually much worse than they were in the 2000s.

Josh McDaniels Meets Drake Maye

Football coach Josh McDaniels always gets a bad rap, and it’s not fully deserved. Yes, he’s hard to work with, he was fired in the second season of both his head coaching stints, he ghosted the Colts when they were going to hire him, and he’s had his share of big-game flops.

But you don’t have all the success he’s had since becoming an offensive coordinator in 2006 without some understanding of the job. He helped the 2007 Patriots to a record-breaking season, and after Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week 1 of the 2008 season, that offense still averaged 25 points per game and led the league in first downs with a quarterback (Matt Cassel) who hadn’t started a game since high school.

In Denver, McDaniels helped Kyle Orton to a career year. When he returned to the Patriots in 2012, that team won three more Super Bowls and lost another with 33 points and a ton of yardage. He didn’t coach the defense or fumble the ball late like Brady did. Then the Patriots were even functional in 2021 with a rookie quarterback like Mac Jones.

With the Raiders, McDaniels’ team blew six fourth-quarter leads, but he had Derek Carr throwing more deep touchdowns to Davante Adams in one year than Aaron Rodgers ever did in all that time together with Adams.

Learning under Belichick all those years, McDaniels understands the need to be adaptable to the opponent you’re facing and the talent you have. The game can’t just be “we do what we do” every week. With Drake Maye, he’ll have a mobile quarterback in a way Brady, Cassel, Orton, Jones, and Carr never were.

McDaniels coached an older Cam Newton (31) in 2020, and while it didn’t go great, Newton had the third-highest passing success rate (45.9%) of his career for an offense that had Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd as its top receivers.

McDaniels is not a bad choice to help develop Maye. He just has to focus on offense instead of coaching the whole team, which was a shortcoming for him in Denver and Vegas. Let Vrabel make the big decisions.

New England’s Toybox: New, Shiny, and Vintage (Possibly Broken)

McDaniels is certainly a different kind of coach with a different philosophy than Arthur Smith, who was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee when Vrabel had his most success (2019-20). You’re not simply going to replicate what the Titans had there in New England, but you can argue there are some similarities with the pieces the Patriots have added to their toybox.

  • Tannehill played his best ball in those years, and he had some mobility to his game, and that’s something the Patriots can exploit even greater with Maye.
  • Derrick Henry is 1-of-1, but the Patriots used the No. 38 pick on Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson, and he looks explosive with some touchdowns in the preseason, and he averaged 7.1 yards per carry last year for the Buckeyes.
  • Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson should make for a very good running back duo this year.
  • No. 1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs used to be as good as A.J. Brown, but he’s going to be 32 and is coming off a torn ACL in Houston, so may have to temper expectations there.

Keep in mind, Diggs was slowing down the last half of 2023 in Buffalo too. But he could always surprise us and be a big asset for this offense. He’s always caught a high rate of his passes, and we know the McDaniels offense has always favored a productive slot receiver a la Wes Welker/Julian Edelman, so Diggs could do some of that, or they could put Demario Douglas in that role.

The offensive line is also expected to have four new starters:

  • LSU left tackle Will Campbell was the No. 4 pick and top-rated prospect in the draft, but he’s already faced some criticism about his play this summer, so we’ll see if he lives up to the hype or not.
  • The Patriots also used a third-round pick on left guard Jared Wilson (Georgia), who could be a Week 1 starter.
  • Veteran center Garrett Bradbury comes over from the Vikings.
  • Right tackle Morgan Moses (Jets) comes over with 158 career starts.

Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper return at tight end, and we know that’s another position McDaniels loves in the passing game. But it’s hard to say the Patriots haven’t improved at just about every facet of offense from last year.

Getting the Patriots’ Defense Back on Track

It was definitely a rough year in 2024 for the New England defense. They had a league-low 28 sacks (only defense under 31) as the pass rush just wasn’t there. They also struggled to stop the run.

New defensive coordinator Terrell Williams was a top assistant to Vrabel in Tennessee (2018-23). He spent last year with Detroit’s defense, which had to overcome the loss of Aidan Hutchinson early in the season. This is his first season as a coordinator, but he’s in line with what Vrabel likes to do.

The Patriots had some money to spend, so they gave Milton Williams his fair share after winning a Super Bowl with the Eagles. It’s probably an overpay, but again, they had the cash and he’s an upgrade.

Harold Landry was probably Vrabel’s best edge rusher in Tennessee. He’s had some big injuries, but maybe he’ll come back stronger in 2025 and be a big producer again for a pass rush that didn’t have anyone exceed 5.0 sacks last year.

The Patriots also made some tactical signings of veterans like nose tackle Khyiris Tonga (Cardinals), linebacker Robert Spillane (Raiders), and corner Carlton Davis (Lions), so that could be five new starters from free agency alone. Spillane is a good try-hard player who used to play for the Steelers, so Vrabel might see some of himself in him.

At corner, the Patriots have a very good player in Chrisitan Gonzalez, who just needs to stay healthy. Jonathan Jones was getting roasted last year, so he’s gone (Washington) after nine seasons with the team. That’s where Davis could help, who’s had some success in Tampa Bay.

Jabrill Peppers is back at safety after missing 11 games. But he’s never been one for producing turnovers, and that’s what this defense needs to create more of to win games. That’s how the Patriots thrived for years when Vrabel was a player there.

Best Bets for the 2025 Patriots   

Moment of truth time. This schedule must be a doozy if the Patriots are favored in so many games. Let’s break it down:

  • Week 1 is hosting Tom Brady’s Raiders, so that’s one you definitely want to win to get off to a good start.
  • Week 2 in Miami where the Patriots have often struggled, but they should at least split with the Dolphins this year.
  • Vrabel is used to beating the Steelers, and they’ll get to host Aaron Rodgers and company in Week 3.
  • Week 4 is also winnable in hosting Carolina.
  • Week 5 is a Sunday Night Football trip to Buffalo for a tough test against actual starters.
  • Even if the Patriots get slaughtered in Buffalo, what a chance to clean up against the Titans, Saints, and Browns the next three weeks.
  • Atlanta should be a tougher game in Week 9, but it is in New England and not the dome.
  • Week 10 is a tough trip to Tampa Bay, a team that can score.
  • Week 11 is hosting the Jets on Thursday night, so a sweep is possible there.
  • Week 12 is going to Cincinnati, a much tougher task than facing that team in September.
  • The Patriots host the Giants on a Monday night in Week 13, so who knows if that’ll be against Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, or rookie Jaxson Dart.
  • After a late bye (Week 14), the Patriots host the Bills, so there’s a real chance to win that game if they’re in contention and have the extra week to rest and plan.
  • A trip to Baltimore will be much tougher than the Jets, then it’s hosting Miami to end things.

I have my doubts if they’ll actually end up being favored in 11 games this year, but yes, the schedule is very favorable with 11 games against teams that had a losing season in 2024. They get the weakest NFC division (South), their own division isn’t very strong outside of Buffalo, and they get a bye before hosting them. They don’t have to play teams like the Chiefs, Eagles, Rams, Commanders, etc.

I trust Vrabel, and I like (but don’t love) Maye’s potential, especially when his best wide receiver is old and coming off an ACL injury. But an improved defense, more takeaways, and some home runs from Henderson could easily produce a winning record with this schedule.

Here’s what I’m doing with the Patriots. I’ll take the over 8.5 wins as Vrabel is good enough to turn this team around to 9-8 in his first year. But you should need 10 wins in this AFC to make the playoffs as a wild card team, because this team is not ready to overtake Buffalo even if they will close the gap a good amount this year. So, the hedge is the Patriots will miss the playoffs again, and if you want something riskier, pick them to finish exactly second in the AFC East.

Besides, if Maye is the new Josh Allen, then he’s not really scheduled to break out until Year 3 anyway. Right after new Patriot receiver Mack Hollins triggers a new pandemic after stepping on something gross since he doesn’t wear shoes.

  • NFL Pick: New England Patriots over 8.5 wins (+115) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: New England Patriots to miss the playoffs (-205) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Patriots to finish second in AFC East (+175) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar22/08/2025 - 12:07 pm