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Dallas Cowboys 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Are You Having a Good Time Now, Jerry?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar28/08/2025 - 08:28 am
Micah Parsons #11 of the Dallas Cowboys
(Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

The Dallas Cowboys will celebrate the 30-year anniversary of their last Super Bowl team. Those 1990s Cowboys are the subjects of a new Netflix documentary series about Jerry Jones and his best NFL teams, bringing up many old stories about Jimmy Johnson, Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, Deion Sanders, Barry Switzer, and more.

It’s a very well-made documentary with new interviews and archival footage. But at the same time, it’s nothing really new. Most of these stories have been told many times for 30 or 40 years. Jones barely touches on his team’s failures to recapture those “glory hole days” in the last 30 seasons.

With the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders appearing in the NFC Championship Game the last two seasons, the Cowboys are the only NFC team who haven’t been to one of those games since the 1995 season. It’s a well-known stat by now, but it still gets more shocking by the year as the streak continues, and the Cowboys still keep getting top headlines and their net worth is roughly $12.8 billion.

But this was a third-rate team in the NFC East last year with the rise of Washington. In fact, it took Jayden Daniels one season to get farther in the playoffs than the Cowboys have in the last 30 years. Sure, Dak Prescott was injured, but the Cowboys were heading nowhere fast even before he shut things down in 2024 right after Jerry made him the first $60 million quarterback on a yearly basis.

Now, Jones is playing hardball with pass rusher Micah Parsons, who sees the $40 million deals other edge rushers are getting this offseason, and he knows it’s his turn next. His “hold in” situation needs resolved ASAP as the Cowboys are in action next Thursday night in the season opener in Philadelphia. They also have a new head coach in Brian Schottenheimer.

The Eagles are the defending champs, and a lot of people are high on Daniels in Washington. This year will answer if the Cowboys are no better than third rate in their own division. The sportsbooks already seem to think so as Dallas is only +184 at FanDuel to make the playoffs this season and +500 to win the NFC East.

Let’s look back at why things ended for Mike McCarthy in 2024, what Schottenheimer has to work with this year, and the best 2025 bets for the Cowboys.

Previously on COWBOYS: Hang a Curtain If You Can’t Hang a New Banner

It’s probably not a coincidence that the Cowboys’ three worst seasons in the last decade all coincided with a major injury to starting quarterbacks Tony Romo (2015) and Dak Prescott (2020 and 2024). Those are the last three seasons where the Cowboys didn’t finish first or second in the NFC East.

But 2024 also felt different in that the Cowboys just never had it, following three straight 12-win seasons that ended in playoff disappointment. That 48-32 loss to the Packers in what felt like Prescott’s best opportunity yet to go on a deep run must have left a mark on this franchise as the Cowboys fell behind by 20 points in their next five home games to start the 2024 season, which is an NFL record.

The defense was just annihilated by the likes of the Saints, Ravens, Lions, Eagles, and Texans. The only semblance of the Cowboys having a shot at things was after Prescott led a game-winning drive in Pittsburgh to get to 3-2. But Detroit destroyed this team 47-9, their comeback came up short in San Francisco again, and they fell to 3-5 with a loss in Atlanta.

Then Prescott injured his hamstring and was shut down for the rest of the season. The Cowboys were blasted 34-6 by the Eagles in Dallas where the sun was blinding players as it often does in that stadium. Jerry Jones was angry after the game about the suggestion of hanging a curtain or something to deal with the sun.

From there, the Cowboys had a 4-1 stretch to get back to 7-8, but they lost their last two games to the Eagles and Commanders to finish 7-10. After five years on the job, Mike McCarthy was shown the door, proving the Five-Year Rule correct once again.

It was never going to happen for McCarthy and Prescott together, a tenure that started and ended with the quarterback injured. But it was still surprising how much the Dallas defense fell off last year too, which speaks to the importance of having a good defensive coordinator like Dan Quinn instead of bringing back a fossil like Mike Zimmer.

Dallas Cowboys Offseason Review

Beyond a coaching change, the Cowboys traded for a new wide receiver, and they may have had one of the better draft classes in 2025. Will it be enough to get back to winning in 2025? That’ll depend on how well Schottenheimer and his coordinators do, and if Prescott can stay healthy and play like he’s used to playing.

Brian Schottenheimer Is Not Exactly New to the Cowboys

Head coach Brian Schottenheimer of the Dallas Cowboys
(Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)

One move you should generally frown upon is when a team promotes an assistant coach to head coach. If you don’t believe that’s a bad strategy, then consider that Jason Garrett, The Clapper himself, is one of the most successful in-house promotion coaches in NFL history. Now do you see why it’s usually the wrong move?

But the Cowboys did it again as Schottenheimer has been with the team since 2022, serving as the offensive coordinator the last two years. He’s 51 and has waited a long time to serve in his father Marty’s footsteps as an NFL head coach after coordinator stops with the Jets (2006-11), the Rams (2012-14), the Georgia Bulldogs (2015), and his most successful stint was with the Seahawks in 2018-20.

I’d call him a nepo baby, but that feels wrong for a grown man going on 52 years old. Schottenheimer’s dad was one of the best coaches in NFL history but by far the unluckiest in the postseason with the way his players would fumble the ball or miss clutch field goals in the big moments.

But Marty Schottenehiemer was also old school with the philosophy of running the ball and stopping the run taking priority over throwing it. Brian Schottenheimer’s offenses have generally favored the run, but they also haven’t scored many points or gained many yards.

The concern about promoting someone is he was already there when things didn’t work out. Is he really going to dramatically change things now that he’s in charge instead of McCarthy, or is he going to try to make it as seamless as possible of a transition for Prescott and company? Because some things sure could use a change in Dallas.

If you were going this route all along, wouldn’t Kellen Moore have made more sense as a former coordinator who had some success with this offense and just won a Super Bowl with the Eagles? Instead, he’s coaching the Saints.

If the Cowboys wanted to swing for the fences, they could have tried getting Bill Belichick to return to the NFL as someone who is friends with Bill Parcells, who was able to work under Jones in 2003-06. Deion Sanders (Colorado) was also a name out there if they wanted to really get back to those 1995 roots.

We’ll just have to see how it goes, but I wouldn’t consider Schottenheimer getting promoted a great signing by Jerry.

Offense: Bombs Away for These Cowboys?

Schottenheimer has made Cardinals offensive line coach Klayton Adams his offensive coordinator. But the biggest change to the offense may be at wide receiver after the team traded for George Pickens from Pittsburgh where he would have been too similar to D.K. Metcalf. Oddly enough, Schottenheimer coached Metcalf for some of his best years in Seattle, so he should see the vision on how to use him properly in Dallas.

McCarthy’s offense always worked best with a deep receiving corps, but after Amari Cooper fell out of favor in Dallas, they’ve really relied too much on CeeDee Lamb these last three seasons. Throw in Michael Gallup’s injury and Brandin Cooks getting old, and things just weren’t that great at WR2 these last few years.

That’s why Pickens and Lamb could be the best receiver duo Prescott has ever had. But with Pickens, he’s got an immaturity issue, which is why he’s out of Pittsburgh before a contract extension. He’ll pout when he doesn’t get the ball, and sometimes he’ll do something absurd with his footwork to not make a routine catch. He’s very talented but also hard to handle. A diva at the diva position, if you will.

We’ll see if Dallas can make that work, but I like the idea of Pickens becoming the vertical threat while you move Lamb around in the slot and everywhere while still making him your primary receiver.

The offensive line has lost future Hall of Fame guard Zack Martin to retirement after 11 seasons in Dallas. But they used their first-round pick on his replacement in Tyler Booker from Alabama, so there’s a good solution for this year. They’ll also hope to see Tyler Guyton improve at left tackle in his second year as last year’s first-round pick.

A healthy Prescott throwing to Lamb, Pickens, and tight end Jake Ferguson behind this line can work. But what about the backfield? It’s Year 2 of replacing Tony Pollard, and this year’s solution are two washed veterans in Javonte Williams (Broncos) and Miles Sanders (Panthers), and they drafted Jaydon Blue (Texas) in the fifth round.

Suddenly, it makes sense why mock drafts have had Dallas taking a back high in the last two drafts. They didn’t do it, and the result is one of the least imposing backfields on paper in the NFL. But we’ll see if Williams can regain his step in new surroundings or if Blue is a late-round gem.

Defense: Micah or Bust?

The good news is the Cowboys got a little younger at defensive coordinator by getting rid of Mike Zimmer. The bad news is they hired Matt Eberflus, the terrible Chicago Bears coach who was fired after the worst clock management in NFL history in Detroit on Thanksgiving.

The only good news is that Eberflus is one of those coaches who fares much better when he just has to manage his side of the ball instead of overseeing everything. He served as the Dallas linebacker coach in 2011-17, but he returns to the team to run the defense. He has a passive style, which is short for saying he’s not big on blitzes. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It just makes it even more important to have great rushers who can win on a 4-man rush.

That’s why you have to sign someone like Micah Parsons to a huge extension. It was always going to be expensive, and waiting has just made it more expensive much like Prescott a year ago.

Granted, I understand where Jerry Jones is coming from on this one. The NFL salary cap situation is getting untenable when you’re expected to reset the market for your quarterback, wide receiver (WR2 too), pass rusher, left tackle, and corner every few years. Most teams aren’t able to find good enough players at these positions, but the Cowboys have hit on a few with Prescott, Lamb, and now Parsons.

But it’s going to get pretty hard to pay the rest of the roster if you’re spending $60M on the quarterback, over $34M on the wide receiver, and over $40M on the edge rusher. That’s $130M to three players.

For that matter, the Cowboys are paying almost $30M in dead cap this year on four players who aren’t even on the team anymore (Zack Martin, Michael Gallup, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Brandin Cooks). The salary cap is not fake.

But you have to find a way to do it to keep a player like Parsons for his prime. Sure, he may not actually be better than T.J. Watt or Myles Garrett or even Nick Bosa or Maxx Crosby. But he’s close to that group and you’re unlikely to land another player of his caliber any time soon.

One stat that’s been floating around is that Dallas has the best defense over the last four years with Parsons on the field and the worst with him off the field.

That feels very far fetched given Dallas’ overall defensive rankings over the last four years, and how Parsons plays about 80% of the snaps. There must be some correlation here with him sitting out drives where other defensive starters are also pulled and they give up a touchdown in garbage time, or you’re also looking at a game he missed last year like Detroit when the Lions pulverized this defense.

On the other hand, Parsons was there in the playoffs when the Packers smoked this defense. He played last year when the Ravens and Saints had no issues with this defense, so his mere presence isn’t enough.

But at 26 years old, Parsons is a player the Cowboys need to re-sign. His backup is journeyman Dante Fowler. The latest NFL rumors have Parsons going to Green Bay in a monster trade, but that would be so against how the Packers do business. Also, it’s preposterous that Jones would let his best asset go to the team that’s given him nightmares in playoff losses over the last decade.

Aside from Parsons, the Cowboys have brought in veterans Solomon Thomas (Jets) and Kenneth Murray (Titans) as new starters. We mentioned DeMarcus Lawrence left for Seattle after 11 years in Big D. But his production has been down for years, and he was limited to four games last year.

Maybe the most interesting Dallas draft pick this year was second-round defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku from Boston College. He won the 2024 Ted Hendricks Award as the nation’s best defensive end after notching 16.5 sacks, a number a lot of prospects don’t even hit in their whole college career, let alone one season. He’s a player to keep an eye on here.

In the secondary, the Cowboys acquired corner Kaiir Elam from Buffalo where he contributed little over the last three years. Relying on him to be a starter in a division with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and Malik Nabers? Good luck, Dallas.

“Parsons or bust” sounds pretty accurate for this unit. They better get the deal done.

Best Bets for the 2025 Cowboys    

It’s hard to believe this is Year 10 for Dak Prescott, or that he’s been the longest-tenured quarterback in the NFL for each of the last three seasons. In the seven seasons where he’s stayed healthy, he always won at least eight games, so that feels like a decent barometer to use for the Cowboys in 2025.

Sure enough, their over/under is 7.5 wins with juice on the over. The offense should be better with his return and the addition of Pickens, but the defense might still struggle with the better offenses on the schedule. But let’s go through the schedule and see how things look:

  • Really tall task on opening night when the Eagles are dropping their banner next week, so 0-1 feels very very likely.
  • Dak owns the Giants, so the Cowboys shouldn’t be 0-2 this year.
  • Week 3 in Chicago could be tough with Ben Johnson looking to destroy his predecessor’s defense.
  • The Packers come to Dallas for SNF in Week 4, and Jordan Love might have that Aaron Rodgers vibe where he owns the Cowboys too.
  • Weeks 5-6 are road games but both winnable against the Panthers and Jets.
  • The Cowboys actually defended Jayden Daniels better than most last year, so getting a split with Washington is possible in that great rivalry.
  • Week 8 is a tough trip to Denver and Sean Payton’s balanced team.
  • Week 9 is hosting Arizona on Monday night, so a game they should be favored before the bye week.
  • Oddly, another Monday night game in Week 11 against the Raiders in Vegas.
  • Weeks 12-17 could do this team in as they have to play the Eagles, Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Chargers, and Commanders (ouch).
  • Wrap up on the road against the Giants.

It’s a tough schedule that is certainly backloaded. Assuming Parsons is on the field next week, I trust Prescott enough to get to 8 wins, but it won’t be enough to get to the playoffs this year. Not when you’re in a division with the Eagles and Commanders, but they should finish third in the NFC East.

Add another year to the Dallas drought of not reaching the NFC Championship Game.

  • NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys over 7.5 wins (-125) at FanDuel
  • NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys to finish third in NFC East (+170) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar28/08/2025 - 08:28 am