The 2025 NFL season was certainly a wild one at the quarterback position. It started with Daniel Jones leading the Colts to some 2007 Patriots-esque numbers before that same team got more touchdown passes in December out of 44-year-old retired grandpa Philip Rivers than the Chiefs got out of Patrick Mahomes, who tore his ACL.
A total of 10 NFL teams ended up starting at least three different quarterbacks in the 2025 regular season, the third-highest total in the 32-team era since 2002. By Christmas, we were watching Max Brosmer win a game with the Vikings after 3 net passing yards.
It eventually ended with Sam Darnold becoming the 36th quarterback to win a Super Bowl, the first to ever do it while playing for his fifth NFL team, a hard to believe feat for someone who is still 28 years old.
The immediate Darnold win with Seattle makes him just the fourth quarterback in NFL history to win a Super Bowl in his first season with a team. Trent Dilfer was the first to do so with the elite 2000 Ravens defense, but when you consider that list also includes Tom Brady (2020 Buccaneers) and Matthew Stafford (2021 Rams) from the NFC this decade, you can see why teams have been much more welcome to making moves for veteran quarterbacks. We have three instant success stories now.
Granted, more of these moves won’t work out unless we’re going to forget about the abject failure of Russell Wilson in Denver (or anywhere since the Seattle trade), Aaron Rodgers with the Jets, Derek Carr in New Orleans, Matt Ryan in Indianapolis, etc.
But the fact is moving heaven and earth to get rid of or acquire another quarterback is not out of reach for most NFL teams today. The fact that Denver ate a record in dead cap money ($85 million) to get rid of Wilson before making the playoffs the next two years, including an appearance in the AFC Championship Game, just goes to show what can be done with the right corresponding moves, coaching, and roster management. Of course, you pray you’re not left starting Jarrett Stidham in the title game.
That’s why backups are important too, and some quarterbacks who have the numbers game working against them for a starting job in 2026 should still try to lock down a good backup job that could lead to starts. Who knows, you may even have to step in and save your team’s season a la Nick Foles for the 2017 Eagles.
That’s what we’re looking at today. What does the 2026 starting quarterback market look like? Who is definitely going to have a new starter? Who is leaning on the draft? Who might make a bold move and dump their starter under contract like the Broncos did with Wilson? These are our predictions going into late February with free agency a few weeks away.
Table of Contents
The NFL Teams Looking for a New QB1 in 2026
New season means expecting some movement at the most important position in the NFL. There should be at least three openings for a new quarterback to start in Week 1 for these teams this season:
- New York Jets: Seems like an every year thing here, but when owner Woody Johnson called out Justin Fields for not being able to complete more passes, you knew that was the end of his time there.
- Las Vegas Raiders: Easiest call with a new coach (Klint Kubiak) and the No. 1 pick in the draft after a poor season from veteran Geno Smith.
- Indianapolis Colts: Daniel Jones was on the verge of a big contract extension after signing a 1-year deal worth $14M to play for the Colts before he tore his Achilles in December. That could really complicate his next deal, and it could even lead to the Colts giving 2023 draft pick Anthony Richardson one more try, seeing if Riley Leonard has anything to build on after one good game against Houston in Week 18, or just going an entirely new route in 2026.
Realistically, nine teams could make a quarterback change for 2026, but it’s hard at the moment to list more than three for a variety of reasons.
For starters, a struggling young quarterback like J.J. McCarthy (Vikings) probably deserves at least one more season in 2026 to prove if he can do the job or not. He was injured in the first preseason game in 2024, struggled to stay on the field (and play well) in 2025, and with Sam Darnold winning a Super Bowl with Seattle, the Vikings may want to give this move one last shot to prove it was the right call in the 2024 draft before cutting bait.
But if Minnesota did decide to move on from McCarthy after two years, there’s a familiar veteran by the name of Kirk Cousins who may be waiting with the expectations that Atlanta will release him. Cousins could also choose to just retire. The Falcons could be looking for a new quarterback to start in Week 1 if Michael Penix Jr. isn’t ready after his ACL tear.
Two teams who could be the next to do the Russell Wilson dead cap move like Denver did are the Dolphins and Cardinals, especially with new coaches in town. Do you really want to entertain seeking that first playoff win in Year 7 of Tua Tagovailoa or Year 8 of Kyler Murray if you’re those teams? Some have even suggested a trade involving both quarterbacks to give them a fresh start.
Speaking of new coaches, it’s possible Todd Monken in Cleveland will want something better than Shedeur Sanders as his quarterback, and the fifth-round investment certainly doesn’t persuade the team from trying to upgrade at that position.
Then there’s the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are likely going to wait again to see if Aaron Rodgers wants to play for ex-coach Mike McCarthy or not. It’s another tricky situation, and the Steelers would be foolish to let this go another month into free agency without some definitive answer from Rodgers. They need to have a backup plan regardless of Rodgers’ decision.
Speaking of backup plans, the Panthers (Bryce Young) and Texans (C.J. Stroud) have a big decision to make by May on whether they’ll exercise their fifth-year option on those quarterbacks from the top of the 2023 class. They’ve been up and down through three years, and neither looks like the kind of quarterback you want to pay over $55 million per season to keep. That’s not to say either is on the move in 2026, but it needs to be a strong season from them to justify a big extension.
Which Quarterbacks Are Likely on the Move?
Again, there was a lot more certainty in the quarterback market a year ago when it looked like Sam Darnold was the top prize, Aaron Rodgers wasn’t going back to the Jets, and the Steelers were ready to clean house (Russell Wilson and Justin Fields) again. We also had a few top draft picks even if Shedeur Sanders fell much farther than expected.
This year, the quarterback market is filled with guys who might just retire instead of playing in 2026, potential trade bait, some intriguing ideas, and a 2026 draft class that is considered weak but does have one favorite for the No. 1 pick.
Even Derek Carr was in the news recently for saying he’d end his one-year retirement for a chance to win the Super Bowl with the right team. Given his choices could be the Jets or Browns, that’s probably not the right team.
With that said, here are some of the quarterbacks who could be available:
- Daniel Jones (UFA): Coming off a December Achilles injury for a quarterback who likes to run will shrink his market as he may not be ready to start 2026.
- Aaron Rodgers (Steelers): Unless he wants to follow the Brett Favre path by finishing with the Vikings, it seems likely to be either Year 22 in Pittsburgh or Rodgers retires before his 43rd birthday.
- Malik Willis (UFA): An intriguing dual-threat, Malik Willis has done a nice job in Green Bay and could be someone’s answer as a starter in 2026.
- Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins): He carries $99.2M in dead cap money per Spotrac, so moving him could be difficult for the Dolphins.
- Kyler Murray (Cardinals): He carries a more reasonable $54.7M in dead cap money per Spotrac if the Cardinals wanted to move on with another quarterback.
- Mac Jones (49ers): He’s been rumored to be trade material after a good showing as Brock Purdy’s backup in 2025, but it’s not like everyone can recreate the Kyle Shanahan system.
- Fernando Mendoza (Indiana Hoosiers): The Heisman Trophy winner led Indiana to a perfect 16-0 season and is the favorite to go No. 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Another Round of NFL Quarterback Matchmaker (2026 Edition)
Let’s start making decisions for these teams with quarterback openings. These next sections are a mixture of predictions with the (maybe) right thing to do.
Steelers: Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy Reunion
It’s a new era in Pittsburgh after head coach Mike Tomlin stepped down after 19 seasons on the job. He’s going to be replaced by Mike McCarthy, who won a Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers against the Steelers in the 2010 season many moons ago. Can they recreate that moment together in 2026, or will it look more like a 2018 season in Green Bay that led to McCarthy being fired for a stale offense?
I would have told you Rodgers would likely retire instead of going through things at 43 with a rookie head coach, but the Steelers threw a curve ball by hiring the veteran McCarthy given the age of their previous three hires, all first-time head coaches. It’s as if they purposely got McCarthy to lure back Rodgers, though it’s very debatable if the two really ended things on good terms in Green Bay.
Some said Rodgers grew tired of the stale offense from McCarthy, and he soon won two more MVP awards under new coach Mike LaFleur in 2020-21. McCarthy also had three straight 12-win seasons in Dallas in 2021-23, so he wasn’t exactly a slouch without Rodgers when Dak Prescott was healthy. Those teams struggled in the playoffs, but so has the teams with Rodgers at quarterback.
They almost deserve to end up with each other in Pittsburgh, and that’s what I think will happen. Still, the Steelers have other options like going for Malik Willis or trading for a veteran like Jacoby Brissett (Cardinals) or drafting someone late in the first round.
But I think come Week 1, it will be Rodgers starting again for McCarthy in Pittsburgh. Who would have imagined?
Who Wins the Malik Willis Sweepstakes?
Malik Willis is one of the most interesting free agents at quarterback in years. When the Titans drafted him in a terrible quarterback class in 2022, he made throwing for 100 yards look impossible. But under good coaching from Mike LaFleur in Green Bay, Willis was always impressive in 2024-25 when called upon for an injured Jordan Love. He showed he can hit the deep balls, scramble effectively, and you could build up a run-based offense around him as some teams are moving towards. He gives you options.
Sure, giving quarterbacks like this a sizeable contract after a small number of successful games has often backfired before whether it was Scott Mitchell or Elvis Grbac in the 1990s, or Matt Flynn thinking he could parlay a six-touchdown game against Detroit into a job with the Seahawks before Russell Wilson beat him for the starting job in the 2012 preseason.
But you never know. There should be several suitors for Willis, and he shouldn’t just go for the highest bidder as he clearly needs a decent supporting cast and coaching to succeed. I would hate to see him go the Jets and have them turn him into another bad flavor of Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields like they had in 2025.
The Colts would actually be a very interesting spot for Willis in a run-based offense with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, big receivers, and leaning on creative ways to use tight end Tyler Warren. Shane Steichen has done a great job with different quarterbacks over the years, and I absolutely think this would be a creative way to break free from the shackles of Anthony Richardson and post-Achilles Daniel Jones.
Miami could also be a good way to get away from Tua Tagovailoa for new coach Jeff Hafley, who saw Willis up close in Green Bay the last two years where he was the defensive coordinator. Of course, you still have to deal with Tua’s contract while giving out something decent money-wise to lure Willis down there, so that might be too much money tied up into one position for a first-year defensive coach.
If Rodgers retires in Pittsburgh, McCarthy mentoring another young quarterback with ties to Green Bay could be very interesting.
But the team I’m picking here is Arizona to land Willis. New coach Mike LaFleur should get the intel from his brother Matt on Willis, and he has no ties or allegiance to Kyler Murray, who hasn’t won a playoff game or really done much in seven seasons outside of that 7-0 start in 2021. This could be a fresh start with a similar skillset of quarterback with a cheaper price tag.
The writing should have been on the wall in Arizona’s front office this past season when Jacoby Brissett stepped in there for an injured Murray and was immediately getting the touchdown production to Zach Ertz that Murray never could as well as consistently big passing numbers and an explosive breakout year for wideout Michael Wilson.
You cut ties with Murray and move on with the other LaFleur coaching Willis. That’s my best idea here.
Trade Tua Tagovailoa for Kyler Murray?
Guess I just put the kibosh on an amusing player-for-player trade involving Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) for Kyler Murray (Cardinals) with the way I gave Malik Willis to the Cardinals. It could still happen, but it might be too tricky with the contracts for both to pull off, and they might both view it as too much of a lateral movement for their new coaching staffs.
But it would be entertaining. This idea of giving a quarterback more time to grow after what we’ve seen with Geno Smith (2022 Seahawks), Sam Darnold (2024 Vikings, 2025 Seahawks), and Daniel Jones (2025 Colts) the last few years misses the point that those quarterbacks had to leave to get better.
Matthew Stafford leaving Detroit after a dozen years for a better situation in Los Angeles led to a Super Bowl win and MVP award in five years for him. Baker Mayfield got better in Tampa Bay than he ever was in Cleveland.
The prevailing trend is they had to leave and do it somewhere else. I can’t really see Murray or Tagovailoa just suddenly figuring it out in their current spot, and those spots are in divisions with strong competition. The Dolphins not only have to deal with Josh Allen and the Bills, but let’s see if the Patriots are back to being an annual problem for them. The NFC West was 6-0 against Arizona last year with three 12-win teams, a record.
I think it’s time for both teams to move on, but it’s easier financially for the Cardinals to do so with Murray, who also likely has more perceived value than Tua with his lesser mobility and history of concussions. That’s why I think Miami is stuck with Tua for at least one more year even if they end up starting another quarterback (Quinn Ewers?) like they did at the end of 2025 when Mike McDaniel benched him.
As for Murray, I think he ends up with the New York Jets. Yep, the New York media might eat him alive, but the fresh surroundings might also get him out of his comfort zone and start taking on a bigger leadership role. Not sure that helps the team end the longest playoff drought (15 years) in active North American team sports, but that’s what I suggest for both parties.
The Jets also hold the No. 33 pick to start the second round, so don’t discount adding a quarterback there regardless of what happens the next two months.
Colts Stand Pat with Keen Eye on Arch Manning in 2027
Part of the reason the 2026 NFL Draft class is considered weak at quarterback is because Arch Manning decided he’s going back to Texas for another year. The team that should be keeping an eye on him more than anyone is the Indianapolis Colts as that would be a fantastic story and decision to try to get the nephew of Peyton in the organization to finally give them a young quarterback to build around.
But I think the Colts don’t do anything flashy, they figure out a backloaded deal to return Jones for 2026, kick the tires one more time on Richardson (or Riley Leonard) for September, and go from there. If they finish bad enough to get the top pick, then hey, maybe there’s the solution all along with Arch Manning in the 2027 draft.
The only issue there is the Colts traded those two first-round picks to the Jets for corner Sauce Gardner as they thought this year was their shot in the AFC. They were on the right path as the AFC playoffs proved, but disastrous injuries to Gardner and Jones obviously tanked that strategy.
Now the Sauce trade could end up costing the Colts their shot at Arch in 2027, which would be a double whammy.
Raiders: Draft the Heisman Winner
Maybe the easiest call here is for the Las Vegas Raiders to use that No. 1 pick on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. The reason you hired Klint Kubiak as your head coach is you expect him to scheme up a successful offense that could make use of Mendoza’s mobility and quick decision making to get the ball to weapons like Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty.
Mendoza doesn’t scream generational talent by any stretch, but he should be a good teammate and a hard worker – the antithesis of what 2007 No. 1 pick JaMarcus Russell was for the Raiders. When you play in the new AFC West with those quarterbacks and coaches, you absolutely have to have a guy of a certain pedigree to compete, and the duo of Kubiak and Mendoza is a solid attempt to get back to winning for the Raiders.
That’s a little more than just concepts of a plan here, if you will.
Browns Draft SEC Quarterback in Second Round
I see some people predicting Kirk Cousins, who turns 38 in August, going to the Browns for 2026. I think it’s just as likely he goes to ESPN or FS1 or maybe they finally replace Terry Bradshaw on the FOX studio panel with someone young.
Cleveland probably should not go into Week 1 of 2026 with Shedeur Sanders as the starting quarterback for Todd Monken. It could happen, but his rookie season was not good by any means, and that’s why I think the Browns turn towards the draft again for another quarterback option.
With the No. 39 pick in the second round, they could even grab the QB2 or QB3 in this draft, similar to last year when Sanders fell all the way to the fifth round for them. Who could that be this year? Alabama’s Ty Simpson is one option as a passer in the ballpark of the player Monken succeeded with in Georgia.
He’s not getting Lamar Jackson again, but Monken should aim higher than Sanders in 2026.
Vikings Add Pressure on McCarthy with Mac Jones Trade
Finally, I expect the Vikings to stick with J.J McCarthy for his third season, but that doesn’t mean they won’t make a move to keep some pressure on him to deliver or he’s done. That’s why I like the idea of a trade for Mac Jones from San Francisco. He’s learned the Shanahan system well, and Kevin O’Connell, a Sean McVay disciple, could see similar value in Jones.
It makes more sense to me than kicking the tires on a 38-year-old Cousins in Minnesota again. In a perfect world, McCarthy would just play well in 2026 and live up to the draft hype. But given we’re talking about Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Bryce Young needing to play up to expectations in 2026, the position is hard to play, and the draft doesn’t always get things right.
That’s why Joe Flacco, who made his first Pro Bowl after his 41st birthday after most of the league declined to go, is probably going to start a handful of games in 2026 too. There are only so many humans on the plant capable of playing this position at all, let alone playing it well.
Related Articles:
- NFL Quarterbacks: Pressure-Blitz Jump (PBJ) and the Way to Win on Defense in 2026
- After a Close NFL 2025 MVP Vote, What Do People Even Value in a Quarterback These Days?
- Lessons from the 2025 NFL Season, 2026 Storylines, and the Early Super Bowl 61 Odds
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Super Bowl 60
- Super Bowl 60 Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots
- Sam Darnold, the Patriots, and the Curse of MetLife Stadium (A Super Bowl 60 Story)
- The Worst Super Bowl Teams in NFL History: Are the 2025 Patriots in the Mix?
- The 2026 NFL Coaching Cycle: Grading New Hires and the Best Choices to Fill the Final Openings
- 2025 NFL Fraud Alert Rating: Should We Trust the Bears and Patriots in the Playoffs?
- 2025 Final NFL Quarterback Rankings: Matthew Stafford Is the MVP
- 2025 NFL Award Races: Final Quarter Look at Stafford vs. Maye for MVP, Coach of the Year, and the Myles Garrett vs. Micah Parsons Debate
- Who Are the Super Bowl Contenders and Pretenders in This Wild 2025 NFL Season?
- 2025 NFL Award Races: Why Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen Is Not the Game to Decide MVP, and the Daniel Jones Double Standard
- 2025 NFL Award Races Through the First Quarter: Are We Headed Towards Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes for MVP?
- Patrick Mahomes Turns 30: The Best There Is, the Best There Was, the Best There Ever Will Be?
- 2025 NFL Predictions: Who Makes It to Super Bowl LX?
- 2025 NFL Award Nominees and Best Bets: Can We Get a Good and Logical MVP Race?
- Philadelphia Eagles 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Did Philly Crush One Great Dynasty to Start Its Own?
- Kansas City Chiefs 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Time to Reinvent the Offense Again
